Bossert blames Z loss on schedule - I disagree

[pandy]

First of all, why leave the BC races out? Why should they not count? As for 2010, she couldn't beat GR1 horses in her races this year because she had won all the GR1 races. I don't really understand what you're trying to say, but if its that she didn't face good competition the past two years, that is simply not true, in the two BC classics alone she faced the best horses in the world, twice. Again, in her career she beat 5 world champion horses and 13 grade 1 winners including 9 multiple grade 1 winners, so any talk of her not facing good top stock is absurd.

[pandy]

Hey, if you believe that Zenyatta is a good horse, not a great horse, that's fine with me. You are in the minority and Zenyatta will certainly go down in history as a great horse, and, yes, the fact that she beat all those multiple GR1 winners and five champions does matter regardless of what you think. If you think Z is a good horse, I guess that means that Quality Road (and his 121 Beyer) is not even a good horse, just average, since Blame and Zenyatta are better than him.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by pandy

First of all, why leave the BC races out? Why should they not count?

This gives a better guage of the level of competition she was facing race-in-race-out. If you're beating up on Div-2 college teams except for 1 game a year, people have a right to question what you've really proved by it. Are you really capable of beating good quality competition time and time again, or do you need to rest up for a year between attempts.

Originally Posted by pandy

As for 2010, she couldn't beat GR1 horses in her races this year because she had won all the GR1 races.

There are 13 Grade 1s for Filly's and Mares 3&up at a route distance on the main track (3up F/M RD to use the USGSC designation). Zenyatta won 5. That means there are 8 races she didn't win, and between 1 and 8 G1 winners just in that division she didn't beat.

Originally Posted by pandy

I don't really understand what you're trying to say, but if its that she didn't face good competition the past two years, that is simply not true, in the two BC classics alone she faced the best horses in the world, twice.

And that's why I'm setting the BCs to one side, isn't it. I'm not denying that they occured and they contained a high level of competition. However, your using those 2 races, one in each year, to define the level of competition for the entire year, which is inaccurate. She stepped up once, once, in each of these years. And please, don't believe the hype, neither of these Classics has contained "the best horses in the world."

Originally Posted by pandy

Again, in her career she beat 5 world champion horses and 13 grade 1 winners including 9 multiple grade 1 winners, so any talk of her not facing good top stock is absurd.

5 world champions? That would be:

1. Ginger Punch
2. Einstein
3. Gio Ponti
4. Summer Bird
5. Mine that Bird.

Blame has beaten 4.

1. Mine that Bird,
2. Einstein,
3. Lookin at Lucky
4. Zenyatta.

13 Grade 1 winners? Well now, I'm familar with these kind of things, so we're counting horses who ever won a Grade 1 in their career aren't we? Okay then.

1. Bullsbay
2. Dominican
3. Einstein (multi)
4. Espoir City (multi)
5. General Quarters (multi)
6. Haynesfield
7. Lookin at Lucky (multi)
8. Macho Again
9. Misremembered
10. Mine That Bird
11. Paddy O' Prado
12. Quality Road (multi)
13. Wicked Style
14. Zenyatta (multi)

I count 14 (w/ 6 multi).

And, let's be clear here, the majority of the champions (3) and G1 winners (8 maybe 10) and the multi-G1 winners (5 maybe 6) she beat by winning 1 race (the 2009 BC Classic). That's not quite the same thing as facing that level of competition time and time again, race after race. One lucky trip and she's a world beater. If Rip Van Winkle had carried her out of the race instead of Einstein, you wouldn't have much on that list, would you?

So, putting the pieces together to mimic your summary of Zenyatta: In Blame's career he beat 4 world champion horses and 14 grade 1 winners including 6 multiple grade 1 winners.

Does he get his cookie now?

[pandy]

You proved my point, Zenyatta (and Blame) raced against top-level competition, not mid-level as you said earlier.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by pandy

You proved my point, Zenyatta (and Blame) raced against top-level competition, not mid-level as you said earlier.

No, I disproved your point. If >50% of the Zenyatta resume of "top-level" competition comes from 1 race, then what does that say about what was she beating in her other 18 wins?

[FenceBored]

Einstein didn't win Turf Male in 2008 as I was misremembering, Conduit did.

The fifth champion Zenyatta beat was Wait A While.

And that lowers Blame's number of champions beat to 3.

Champions beaten by Zenyatta:

1. Ginger Punch
2. Gio Ponti
3. Mine that Bird
4. Summer Bird
5. Wait a While

Champions beaten by Blame.

1. Mine that Bird,
2. Lookin at Lucky
3. Zenyatta.

[ihatenyra]

I think you're spending so much time and effort crunching all these numbers that you're burning yourself out. When did zenyatta face what a while, a champion turf mare?

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by ihatenyra

I think you're spending so much time and effort crunching all these numbers that you're burning yourself out. When did zenyatta face what a while, a champion turf mare?

You're right.

And, I'll take your advice, and not try to figure out who the other one was right now. I'll go do some fun stall mucking.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

No, I disproved your point. If >50% of the Zenyatta resume of "top-level" competition comes from 1 race, then what does that say about what was she beating in her other 18 wins?

You can't NOT count the horses she beat in the two BC classic races, even though you obviously want to, for some reason.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by pandy

You can't NOT count the horses she beat in the two BC classic races, even though you obviously want to, for some reason.

Why should a horse get credit during a losing effort?? If "greatness" were defined by how many horses you finish in front of, then I can see racing strategy changing a lot to encompass this change. You only get credit for winning in this world. Otherwise, why even care that Zenyatta was 19 for 19. As Vince Lombardi once said, "winning isn't everything, it's the only thing". That applies to horse racing too.

[rastajenk]

What exactly is a champion, and why is Mine That Bird listed above?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

What exactly is a champion, and why is Mine That Bird listed above?

Mine That Bird won a Sovereign Award at 2 as Canada's outstanding juvenile.

Cocoa Beach was HOY in Chile also.

Not sure when Zenyatta beat Wait A While, but she did beat Canadian HOY Sealy Hill.

[rastajenk]

Ah, yes; thanks.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by pandy

First of all, why leave the BC races out?

Cherry picking data.
But in #1223, he lists Zenyatta as being beaten by Blame. The guy is all over the place. Bottom line, Blame is no better than Zenyatta than 6 inches. But that makes for a dull story.

And what is a world champion?
Mine that Bird is a one race fluke who couldn't win a stake a Finger Lakes.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Perhaps the horses in this year's renewal just weren't as good as you thought them to be. The speed figures (curse those damn tools of the DEVIL) certainly seem to bear this out...

Blame is no world beater in terms of history...so what does that make Zenyatta?

You might be right.

However, here is my argument... and I know that you, of all people, (Paceadvantage) will get this... and I have won a lot of bets using this logic...
not saying I'm right or you're wrong, though...

Experience has taught us that if the pace is too slow the final time will also be slow because the horses will not have enough distance in the race to make up for the time lost in the early part of the race.

Final time is a function of pace.

James Quinn's book on making speed figures on the turf explains this well.

My contention is that if Zenyatta had been closer to the pace she could have had a faster final time and could have won the race.

Smith said he had her too far back. I agree with him.

Now, I could be wrong and you could be right. That's the beauty of horseracing. We get to bet our opinions.