Rachel's Woodward...

[joanied]

I know we have a few RA threads going on...but maybe this one can be just for opinions & picks for the Woodward (rather than speculation...since we now have the post positions and the field finalized)...

I thought this was a thought provoking article, and brings up the fact that Calvin WILL have a bullseye on his back:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...achel?id=52393

[cj]

Woodward Pace Figures

Reading the figures 1

Reading the figures 2

[46zilzal]

Mountain out of a mole hill. ANY BIG FAVORITE is gunned for EVERY race.

Do you think opponents tried any less than they will Saturday against Citation, Native Dancer, Ta Wee, Affirmed, Ribot, Dr. Fager??? etc etc. I sincerely doubt it.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Mountain out of a mole hill. ANY BIG FAVORITE is gunned for EVERY race.

Do you think opponents tried any less than they will Saturday against Citation, Native Dancer, Ta Wee, Affirmed, Ribot, Dr. Fager??? etc etc. I sincerely doubt it.

Oh, zil.... I know that ...but I don't care about other races...just this one (for now)....I'm not saying this is any different than any other big race with a heavy favorite like Rachel....
just thought it'd be a fun & interesting thread to get everyone's take on the race and picks...
OK?

[joanied]

Originally Posted by cj

Woodward Pace Figures

Reading the figures 1

Reading the figures 2

Thanks, cj...short & sweet.
Now, seems to me, looking at your figures, she is pretty much a lock in here...unless she gets locked into a box..RA wins...which, needless to say, is what I want to see, hell, guess we all want to see her make history again...
so, what are you picks at the wire? I'd like to see 'em...you always do good.

Are you & your dad gonna be there?

[cj]

Originally Posted by joanied

Thanks, cj...short & sweet.
Now, seems to me, looking at your figures, she is pretty much a lock in here...unless she gets locked into a box..RA wins...which, needless to say, is what I want to see, hell, guess we all want to see her make history again...
so, what are you picks at the wire? I'd like to see 'em...you always do good.

Are you & your dad gonna be there?

I'll most likely be at Remington.

Here is a look at the 2004 Classic, you can see how she compares to Azeri.

Here is Azeri at the age of 4 in the 2002 Distaff, probably a better comparison. Keep in mind, she was considered by most a superstar.

[W2G]

It's not always easy being both a fan and an opportunistic horseplayer.

As a fan I hope she wins by a pole.

As a horseplayer, hmmm. What did Harvey Pack always say? "Never bet a favorite to do something for the first time". That is usually pretty good advice, except when it's not. So odds-on Rachel will try Saratoga for the first time, and older males for the first time, at the same time. Throw in a jock who has had one trip to the winner's circle this meet, and pools infused with emotional money... it's tempting to take a shot against. These kinds of opportunities are rare.

That said, I plan to just watch and hope to see something special again. And if she loses I hope some of you are smart enough and brave enough to score big.

[Norm]

Originally Posted by joanied

I know we have a few RA threads going on...but maybe this one can be just for opinions & picks for the Woodward (rather than speculation...since we now have the post positions and the field finalized)...

I thought this was a thought provoking article, and brings up the fact that Calvin WILL have a bullseye on his back:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...achel?id=52393

Yes, a thought provoking article, with an interesting cast of characters. It almost looks like the field was custom designed to beat her. Da'Tara will wire this field unless someone comes up to get him. My guess is that Bullsbay is there for the lone purpose of trying to intimidate her. Her massive size is one of her strengths and Bullsbay, at 1250 lbs. is bigger. He may try to bully her as Foolish pleasure did to Ruffian all those years ago. If she gets clear of the big guy and goes after Da'Tara, he can step-up the pace and let the closers test her in the last 100 yards. In my humble opinion, this race is not about pace nearly as much as it is about strategy. I hope Mr. Borel is up to this task. Her strenghs have been assessed and there is a horse there in that gang-up to test each one of them. R.A. against any one of those guys is an easy winner, but against all of them running horse-Mafia style she is in for a really hard time of it. Even so, my greatest concern for her is Saratoga itself. I have been wondering why her people chose this track with its unique characteristics as a venue for a serious test of her abilities. If she wins this one, she deserves an extra check-mark under the heading of "class". Contrary to popular belief, this is not a push-over field and it is certainly not an easy track.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

People keep saying that Rachel's competition are capable of running that one big race that could cause her some trouble in the Woodward. Just on paper, even her competition's best race couldn't beat Rachel's average race.

I'm not afraid of Rachel getting boxed in, this race shouldn't be like the 2005 Woodward where Commetator got swarmed by the Saint Liam rabbit. Rachel can sit farther off if she needs to. I like post 3 for her, Bullsbay to her inside will not be a factor for her at all, she's much too fast early for him and she will never see him again for the rest of the race. Even if Cool Coal Man and Past The Point try to put early pressure on Rachel, it shouldn't really make a difference. I also like the 3 post because those 1-1/8 races at Saratoga can be bad for horses in Post 6 and out since its such a short run to the turn and they always get carried out wide.

To me, almost every other horse in this race (except Da Tara) is capable of getting second here. My choice for 2nd is Asiatic Boy. He's used to carrying more weight over in Dubai (unlike Bullsbay who is used to carrying 116 lbs) and seems to have a case of seconditis over here in the states.

Should be an interesting race regardless...my prediction is Rachel by 5 lengths over Asiatic Boy, with Macho Again coming late for 3rd.

[Norm]

Originally Posted by W2G

It's not always easy being both a fan and an opportunistic horseplayer.

As a fan I hope she wins by a pole.

As a horseplayer, hmmm. What did Harvey Pack always say? "Never bet a favorite to do something for the first time". That is usually pretty good advice, except when it's not. So odds-on Rachel will try Saratoga for the first time, and older males for the first time, at the same time. Throw in a jock who has had one trip to the winner's circle this meet, and pools infused with emotional money... it's tempting to take a shot against. These kinds of opportunities are rare.

That said, I plan to just watch and hope to see something special again. And if she loses I hope some of you are smart enough and brave enough to score big.

A lot of good points here. I think the ideal betting strategy is 1) If you are at the track, buy as many single $2 Win tickets as you can. If she wins, you'll get rich selling them on eBay. 2) If you are not at the track, go for the upset.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by Norm

Yes, a thought provoking article, with an interesting cast of characters. It almost looks like the field was custom designed to beat her. Da'Tara will wire this field unless someone comes up to get him. My guess is that Bullsbay is there for the lone purpose of trying to intimidate her. Her massive size is one of her strengths and Bullsbay, at 1250 lbs. is bigger. He may try to bully her as Foolish pleasure did to Ruffian all those years ago. If she gets clear of the big guy and goes after Da'Tara, he can step-up the pace and let the closers test her in the last 100 yards. In my humble opinion, this race is not about pace nearly as much as it is about strategy. I hope Mr. Borel is up to this task. Her strenghs have been assessed and there is a horse there in that gang-up to test each one of them. R.A. against any one of those guys is an easy winner, but against all of them running horse-Mafia style she is in for a really hard time of it. Even so, my greatest concern for her is Saratoga itself. I have been wondering why her people chose this track with its unique characteristics as a venue for a serious test of her abilities. If she wins this one, she deserves an extra check-mark under the heading of "class". Contrary to popular belief, this is not a push-over field and it is certainly not an easy track.

Very good post, Norm...and I think you nailed it pretty good...as you mentioned, there are 3 factors that scare me...the fact she can get in trouble, boxed in, and that Bullsbay is a huge powerful colt...I don't think RA is easily intimidated...but I won't be surprised to see Bullsbay come out just enough to bother her at the break...unless she can outbreak him, and she is a great gate horse...and Zito wingin' it with Datara...it's always scary for a heavy favorite at Saratoga, and I question why they didn't take her over to the main track for her last work...then there's Calvin, who has had an awful meet up there...can he keep his cool and make all the right moves with her...let's hope so.
If she wins this, and I beleive she will...that check mark next to class will go along with the word 'great' to describe her...no one could deny her as a great horse after this one...if she wins....oh, wait...when she wins

[joanied]

Originally Posted by cj

I'll most likely be at Remington.

Here is a look at the 2004 Classic, you can see how she compares to Azeri.

Here is Azeri at the age of 4 in the 2002 Distaff, probably a better comparison. Keep in mind, she was considered by most a superstar.

Sorry you won't be there, cj...like me, you're gonna miss history being made ...just off the top of my head, seems like Rachel would beat Azeri...and Azeri was, IMO...a superstar

[bisket]

to handicap this race we have to try and figure out who runs second here because we all know who's gonna finish first. we must first try and figure out what is the mystery behind macho again's winning races. hmmm a little background. i've had macho pegged since last years preakness. i had him in the jim dandy last year. much to my delight another pick from the bisket that confounds the speed fig handicappers . hope your reading this spacey. unfortunately at the fairgrounds i picked him again, but wasn't home for the race . i liked him in the foster this year but just didn't think he could beat einstein, and passed on the race. so what does he do saturday at saratoga? he finishes second. why because whenever the pace in the first 1/2 is 46 seconds macho is right there at the end. you can look it up i think rachel is a comparison to brownie. what did brownie run in the first 1/2 of the preakness 46 and 4 . now who's gonna finish third. well there's another gentleman of a horse who seems to feel both ladies and gentleman should be ahead of him at all times. that would be asiatic boy. so that'll be a 3$ tri wheel / , / ,

[statik27]

Originally Posted by joanied

Sorry you won't be there, cj...like me, you're gonna miss history being made ...just off the top of my head, seems like Rachel would beat Azeri...and Azeri was, IMO...a superstar

Hey Joanied, your prolly right, but RA would have known she was in a horse race with Azeri. In the 2002 BC distaff, she ran a half in 46 and change 3/4's in 1:09 and change, while being pressured the whole way by the brilliant filly Imperial Gesture. She still just pulled away from them. Great mare.

Super memory for me, I made a ton of money on that race. God bless her lol.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by bisket

to handicap this race we have to try and figure out who runs second here because we all know who's gonna finish first. we must first try and figure out what is the mystery behind macho again's winning races. hmmm a little background. i've had macho pegged since last years preakness. i had him in the jim dandy last year. much to my delight another pick from the bisket that confounds the speed fig handicappers . hope your reading this spacey. unfortunately at the fairgrounds i picked him again, but wasn't home for the race . i liked him in the foster this year but just didn't think he could beat einstein, and passed on the race. so what does he do saturday at saratoga? he finishes second. why because whenever the pace in the first 1/2 is 46 seconds macho is right there at the end. you can look it up i think rachel is a comparison to brownie. what did brownie run in the first 1/2 of the preakness 46 and 4 . now who's gonna finish third. well there's another gentleman of a horse who seems to feel both ladies and gentleman should be ahead of him at all times. that would be asiatic boy. so that'll be a 3$ tri wheel / , / ,

Interesting.

I have yet to look at the PPs. Per trainers stats, Saeed is winning at something over 60%? Dallas Stewart at about 20%.