Hong Kong Turnover Falls

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Hong Kong betting turnover has fallen in the last few months. Had to happen one day. International commingling of pools has kept the turnover going up the last few years but they have run out of countries to commingle with

https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/ar...6-billion-four

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

Hong Kong betting turnover has fallen in the last few months. Had to happen one day. International commingling of pools has kept the turnover going up the last few years but they have run out of countries to commingle with

https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/ar...6-billion-four

According to the article below the first article at the link you posted it says that betting from Hong Kongers was down 1.6%, but there was "an increase from overseas customers through commingling, which was up 13.5 per cent to HK$18.823 billion."

The article also says it was a record breaking year.

One challenge they face is betting that is done with illegal bookmakers. However, I would wager some of the risk from the illegal bookmaker money is laid-off in the pari-mutuel pools.

I find the pools less efficient than I thought they would be. The pools are gigantic so there are bound to be some inefficiencies.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

highnote

You cannot make apples to apples comparisons with the commingled pools as HK keep adding new countries each year. So if you commingle with 3 countries one year and 5 countries the next year it is bound to go up. It is hard to track how many countries were signed up in any given year

I doubt there are many inefficiencies in the HK pools these days. Big syndicates getting the big rebates from the HKJC should make sure of that. And this will be the long term problem for the HKJC's commingling program as over the years the overseas punters who don't have the rebates available to them will give up as they find HK racing is a losing bet for them

Local HK punters are already fatigued with the HK product hence the drop in their turnover

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

highnote

You cannot make apples to apples comparisons with the commingled pools as HK keep adding new countries each year. So if you commingle with 3 countries one year and 5 countries the next year it is bound to go up. It is hard to track how many countries were signed up in any given year

I doubt there are many inefficiencies in the HK pools these days. Big syndicates getting the big rebates from the HKJC should make sure of that. And this will be the long term problem for the HKJC's commingling program as over the years the overseas punters who don't have the rebates available to them will give up as they find HK racing is a losing bet for them

Local HK punters are already fatigued with the HK product hence the drop in their turnover

OK. I am not an expert, but I bet every meeting there.

My experience has been that they are not as efficient as I thought they would be, but maybe your experience is different.

[AltonKelsey]

No one has mentioned the political unrest there.



Probably having some impact

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

highnote
I doubt there are many inefficiencies in the HK pools these days. Big syndicates getting the big rebates from the HKJC should make sure of that. And this will be the long term problem for the HKJC's commingling program as over the years the overseas punters who don't have the rebates available to them will give up as they find HK racing is a losing bet for them

Local HK punters are already fatigued with the HK product hence the drop in their turnover

I’ve been playing the races in HK for 5 years now and I’ve discovered many “inefficiencies” along the way because all I use as a tool for playing is a tote board analysis that monitors money flow in the W-P-S and Quinella pools.

The recent closing day at Sha Tin was a good example:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=67
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=68

Never heard of anyone being “fatigued with the HK product”. Unless of course you’re referring to literally becoming fatigued because of the time difference when their racing takes place.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’ve been playing the races in HK for 5 years now and I’ve discovered many “inefficiencies” along the way because all I use as a tool for playing is a tote board analysis that monitors money flow in the W-P-S and Quinella pools.

The recent closing day at Sha Tin was a good example:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=67
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=68

Never heard of anyone being “fatigued with the HK product”. Unless of course you’re referring to literally becoming fatigued because of the time difference when their racing takes place.

There is definitely money to be made from toteboard analysis. I think I have a paper about it somewhere. If I can find it I will post it.

[AltonKelsey]

Nitro claims this, but never gives the slightest hint at what he is doing.



What's the point of it ?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Nitro claims this, but never gives the slightest hint at what he is doing.



What's the point of it ?

That's why I want to find the paper about this.

[Robert Fischer]

How about actually seeing and understanding the horses, and then waiting for a significantly mispriced offering?

Seems to work globally.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

How about actually seeing and understanding the horses, and then waiting for a significantly mispriced offering?

Seems to work globally.

That is fundamental analysis.

Technical analysis via tote movement is a valid method, too.

[Sea Hero]

Originally Posted by Nitro

all I use as a tool for playing is a tote board analysis that monitors money flow in the W-P-S and Quinella pools.

There is no first-second (what we call "place") pool in Hong Kong. Their "place" is what we call "show."

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

There is no first-second (what we call "place") pool in Hong Kong. Their "place" is what we call "show."

He was explaining it to us in our own words.

[Ted Craven]

There IS enough inefficiency to profitably bet most races, most pools. I did this for most HK race meets in the 2018-2019 season. I too was surprised to find it so, given the alleged 'smart money' and big syndicates. I too use exclusively a technical tote analysis methodology for Hong Kong.

I knew this was possible in North America, but Nitro served as the 'proof of concept' to me (i.e. someone seemed to be making it work, somehow). So thanks, N (and your mentor)! I never got (nor asked for) any details of that methodology, but it's amazing what you can find by digging (a LOT of digging and hard late night work), modeling and clever programming.

I find it similar to breaking the 4-minute mile. For the longest time, it was considered impossible, beyond the abilities of the human machine. Then, when it was broken in 1954 (the year I was born) soon after that, many others began duplicating that feat. As if - all you need to know is IF a thing can be done - then if you want, you can do it too. I think this is some kind of universal law (in the realm of human affairs).

The question of whether HK can be profitably bet or whether tote analysis is effective - is a non-issue for me.

I DO worry about political unrest there. It was surreal to watch the races there and commentary, and at the same time watch a live stream of protesters occupying and trashing the parliament. Regardless of the political outcome, I would be surprised if Beijing purposely threatens such a valuable cash cow.

Ted

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

There IS enough inefficiency to profitably bet most races, most pools. I did this for most HK race meets in the 2018-2019 season. ...

... it's amazing what you can find by digging,.. modeling and clever programming.

I find it similar to breaking the 4-minute mile. ...

The question of whether HK can be profitably bet or whether tote analysis is effective - is a non-issue for me.

...

Ted

thx for gracing us with an update/presence

word was out that there was a 'modern-day Benter'

keep up the good work