Preservationist

[Lemon Drop Husker]

This aptly named colt just broke the 2 minute barrier at 10 panels in the G2 Suburban at Belmont. (1:59.99 )

As a 6YO, the connections have had the patience of Job in which he has had a mere 8 career starts, and his record now stands at 8(5-1-2). He has never missed the board in any start of his career.

He romped today by 4 or more lengths in what was easily the best field he has ever faced.

Kudos to the connections of trainer James Jerkens and owners Centennial Farms.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

This aptly named colt just broke the 2 minute barrier at 10 panels in the G2 Suburban at Belmont. (1:59.99 )

As a 6YO, the connections have had the patience of Job in which he has had a mere 8 career starts, and his record now stands at 8(5-1-2). He has never missed the board in any start of his career.

He romped today by 4 or more lengths in what was easily the best field he has ever faced.

Kudos to the connections of trainer James Jerkens and owners Centennial Farms.

went from 8-1 to 7/2 1-2 minutes from post I think-looked good

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Afleet

went from 8-1 to 7/2 1-2 minutes from post I think-looked good

Catholic Boy is a really nice horse. Put him away rather easily today when the racing really mattered.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Catholic Boy is a really nice horse. Put him away rather easily today when the racing really mattered.

I agree w/you-think he may be a serious horse; by Arch out of a Dixieland Band mare

[Immortal6]

What issue does the horse have that it’s only raced 8 times as a 6 yo?? Genuinely curious? Is there some physical deformity/ailment that is chronic enough to take a horse like this out of commission on a regular basis but with rest it is able to run like this? I liked it enough to key it underneath in my tris but never saw it putting away catholic boy like he did.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

What issue does the horse have that it’s only raced 8 times as a 6 yo?? Genuinely curious? Is there some physical deformity/ailment that is chronic enough to take a horse like this out of commission on a regular basis but with rest it is able to run like this? I liked it enough to key it underneath in my tris but never saw it putting away catholic boy like he did.

This horse, with it's chronic aliments reminds me of a horse trained by Nick Zito, who was one of the fastest horses I've ever seen run, between 7 furlongs and a mile 1/8......His name was Commentator.

[spiketoo]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

As a 6YO, the connections have had the patience of Job...

'Forced patience' said Jerkens post-race. Horse has 'small feet' that caused issues but he thinks he's grown into them. Heck all horse have small feet in my eyes.

[Robert Fischer]

I did a bad job of capping.

I looked at paper, I watched the last race (where he didn't do much running and got a nice trip), and I didn't like him...

He took money. It's not like he pulled off a long-shot amazing feat, he was one of the favorites to win.

Caught me that time.

[classhandicapper]

I didn't use him either.

You could see that he long had potential that kept getting interrupted with layoffs (feet?), but IMO he exploded forward the other day. His prior race (fast enough to at least fit depending on the figures you use), was not against a stakes caliber field and he didn't dominate them. Some of the older stakes horses are kind of weak. That made the jump easier, but still. That was a big move forward (that some bettors seemed to know was coming).

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I didn't use him either.

You could see that he long had potential that kept getting interrupted with layoffs (feet?), but IMO he exploded forward the other day. His prior race (fast enough to at least fit depending on the figures you use), was not against a stakes caliber field and he didn't dominate them. Some of the older stakes horses are kind of weak. That made the jump easier, but still. That was a big move forward (that some bettors seemed to know was coming).

Some of the players knew that horse, a lot better than I knew him.

Coming into the race, I thought he'd be slightly overbet.

However, he was bet more than I had suspected/accounted for. And I was arrogant, and aloof enough, to not adjust.

That's kind of a rule for me - that when you can't explain odds movement, you either stay out, or 'respect' it. This was a good wake up call / refresher / slap-in-the-face

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Some of the players knew that horse, a lot better than I knew him.

Coming into the race, I thought he'd be slightly overbet.

However, he was bet more than I had suspected/accounted for. And I was arrogant, and aloof enough, to not adjust.

That's kind of a rule for me - that when you can't explain odds movement, you either stay out, or 'respect' it. This was a good wake up call / refresher / slap-in-the-face

If you are a pure numbers guys (or that's the core of your thinking), he had the fastest Beyer coming in, fastest recent TF dirt figures, and was right there on TG. It's easy to see how a lot of people liked him coming in as a lightly raced improving horse.

Personally, I have trouble dealing with fast ALW winners moving into graded stakes for older horses.

For every one that makes the jump and can duplicate or exceed their recent numbers, I'll show you a few that totally fell apart or at least declined. The trick is identifying the ones that have the reserve stamina and class to engage with tougher horses and duplicate or exceed their recent numbers and which don't.

I have yet to find a reliable way to do that other than who trains the horse and how consistent the horse has been. Sometimes what I see on the track helps too. The best trainers usually handle the best horses and know when it's time to take a shot against tougher. Still, I'm often wrong.

In this case I liked Pavel better and used Realm for value. The horse I was trying to beat was Catholic Boy who I think has been overrated on dirt off the Travers (which was a fluky track that some horses didn't handle and that may have been a bit biased). Pavel didn't have the best of trips. The winner had a pretty good one. CB ran well.

[Tom]

The Suburban was a pretty weak Gr1 race, IMHO. CB had only won a Gr1 for 3 year olds, PAvel, who has been running 3yo figures, and there were two Gr2 winners, not in great current form.

The bias for 10 furlongs at Belmont is decidedly inside speed over the last 18 years. The two horses favored most by historical bias were CB and the winner. The winner had 1 turn speed, CB did not.

My line was

CB 5-2
Preservationist 3-1
Lone Sailor 6-1
Pavel 6-1

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

The Suburban was a pretty weak Gr1 race, IMHO. CB had only won a Gr1 for 3 year olds, PAvel, who has been running 3yo figures, and there were two Gr2 winners, not in great current form.

The bias for 10 furlongs at Belmont is decidedly inside speed over the last 18 years. The two horses favored most by historical bias were CB and the winner. The winner had 1 turn speed, CB did not.

My line was

CB 5-2
Preservationist 3-1
Lone Sailor 6-1
Pavel 6-1

It was officially a G2.

I'm not even sure I would have called it a legit Grade 2 going in given that I was taking a serious look at horses that were competing in listed stakes to include, but the end result was pretty solid. The winner ran fast and closed strongly, CB was kind of rank and still ran well, and Pavel ran well despite the ground loss. I haven't done all my notes for the day yet, but inside and speed certainly looked good even if most of the results were logical. That may have helped the top two also. They came home fast and no one was closing in that race.

[Tom]

My bad - Gr2.
But nothing had run Gr 2 figs recently.

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

This aptly named colt just broke the 2 minute barrier at 10 panels in the G2 Suburban at Belmont. (1:59.99 )

As a 6YO, the connections have had the patience of Job in which he has had a mere 8 career starts, and his record now stands at 8(5-1-2). He has never missed the board in any start of his career.

He romped today by 4 or more lengths in what was easily the best field he has ever faced.

Kudos to the connections of trainer James Jerkens and owners Centennial Farms.

Interestingly, Discreet Lover won the JCGC last year in 1:59.99 and didn't get nearly this kind of love.