watch the attendance tomorrow at DMR

[dilanesp]

Here's a quick and dirty way to measure the impact of all the Santa Anita scandals on California's racing climate. Tomorrow is opening day at Del Mar, a day traditionally frequented by a lot of upper class young people who go in their sundresses and designer clothes and sip margaritas as the horses race around the track. In other words, not a hardcore handicapping and betting crowd.

So the question is, how many of them show up. Historically, a great Del Mar opening is over 40,000, and a good one is over 32,000 or so. If you see 30,000 or more, I'd say the scandals haven't had a terrible impact. If you see 23,000 to 30,000, that indicates some impact. If it's less than 23,000 or so, the sport is on life support in Southern California.

[Saratoga_Mike]

What's your prediction?

[Tor Ekman]

Zero effect - the gate will be over 40,000

[ReplayRandall]

Lots of Dining tables still available in the Clubhouse right now....25K- 27K.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

Zero effect - the gate will be over 40,000

I'll take the under. Last year the attendance was 33,000 without all the negative publicity. If they can hit the mid to high 20s they should be very excited.

[AlsoEligible]

the gate will be over 40,000

They haven't had 40+ since 2016...coincidentally, the last time there was a rash of horse deaths in SoCal. They also raised ticket prices after that meet, which contributed to a fairly steep drop in 2017 attendance.

2018 - 33k
2017 - 34k
2016 - 42k
2015 - 40k
2014 - 42k

Even if you think the Santa Anita deaths will have no impact, ticket prices have not been lowered, so why would 7k more people than last year suddenly decide to show up?

0% chance of hitting 40.

80% chance of staying in the 30-34k range. Maybe a slight dip caused by Santa Anita, but small enough that racing can brush it away and say its a normal crowd.

20% chance of dipping to 29k or below, which would be a huge red flag for the future of California racing.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

They haven't had 40+ since 2016...coincidentally, the last time there was a rash of horse deaths in SoCal. They also raised ticket prices after that meet, which contributed to a fairly steep drop in 2017 attendance.

2018 - 33k
2017 - 34k
2016 - 42k
2015 - 40k
2014 - 42k

Even if you think the Santa Anita deaths will have no impact, ticket prices have not been lowered, so why would 7k more people than last year suddenly decide to show up?

0% chance of hitting 40.

80% chance of staying in the 30-34k range. Maybe a slight dip caused by Santa Anita, but small enough that racing can brush it away and say its a normal crowd.

20% chance of dipping to 29k or below, which would be a huge red flag for the future of California racing.

2017 was the first year in that span where the Opening Day was a Wednesday and not a Thurs or Fri. That does make a big difference.

No effin way I'm heading south from LA on a Wednesday, and it's too busy and expensive to make it an extra long weekend. Thurs-Sun, maybe. But add Wednesday? yeah, no.

From about 2012 to 2016 I spent at least 7-12 days at DMR, FWIW.

I think attendance will be a hair over 30K, max.

[theiman]

Sunny and 74 degrees

Padres are on the road
The Open, across the pond, starts on Thursday
No Over The Line Tournament
Chargers are in LA.

I say 33,453

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Here's a quick and dirty way to measure the impact of all the Santa Anita scandals on California's racing climate. Tomorrow is opening day at Del Mar, a day traditionally frequented by a lot of upper class young people who go in their sundresses and designer clothes and sip margaritas as the horses race around the track. In other words, not a hardcore handicapping and betting crowd.

So the question is, how many of them show up. Historically, a great Del Mar opening is over 40,000, and a good one is over 32,000 or so. If you see 30,000 or more, I'd say the scandals haven't had a terrible impact. If you see 23,000 to 30,000, that indicates some impact. If it's less than 23,000 or so, the sport is on life support in Southern California.

Its not like Del Mar hasn't had its own string of horse deaths in the past. It was those animal rights groups who first attacked Del Mar before they moved onto Santa Anita. Besides, the audience for Del Mar is vastly different from Santa Anita, most of the people attending are from the San Diego county area.

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

Zero effect - the gate will be over 40,000

If anything I would worry less about opening day than the average attendance. Opening day for race tracks usually have great attendance, the problem is that it drops off once the season wears on.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by horsefan2019

Its not like Del Mar hasn't had its own string of horse deaths in the past. It was those animal rights groups who first attacked Del Mar before they moved onto Santa Anita. Besides, the audience for Del Mar is vastly different from Santa Anita, most of the people attending are from the San Diego county area.

Living in the area I have seen many newspaper articles and television news stories regarding horse deaths. I don't think it matters what type of audience you have, nobody wants to see horses die. I think all of the negativity will take a toll.

[ReplayRandall]

Track attendance for opening day----> 31,276 via Equibase.

[fastfasterfastest]

That's a healthy number. Good to see.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by fastfasterfastest

That's a healthy number. Good to see.

Agreed. It's non-terrible

[Tom]

They sure didn't need this to happen...

Brad Free, Del Mar
33 mins ago
Del Mar collision, two horses die

Two horses died Thursday morning in a freak training accident at Del Mar following a head-on collision at the six-furlong pole on the turn. The incident occurred at 6:40 a.m. One horse propped and lost his rider. The disoriented horse began running the wrong way on the turn, and collided with another horse. The identity of the horses was not immediately known.