NYRA Jackpot P6

[spiketoo]

Yesterday is a prime example on why the current P6 structure works for me. Ended up with 2 consols paying 2.6K.

Robert, in no way do I begrudge your desire to play the P5 but my point here is that the the current P6 structure works for me and how I churn. I wholly understand the takeout and the overhead on a P5 bet compared to the current P6, but I would have hit bupkas on the P5 (or even P4) yesterday with the same selections. I'm fully cognizant that a P5 ticket would have cost approx 75% less tho perhaps using fewer horses (and 80% less if they institute a 0.20 jackpot bet), but I'm willing to accept this 'risk to reward' quotient. It's my choice on how I churn and what works for you is your perrogative. I'm just livid that I'll no longer have this choice. FTR, there's a 120K C/O in today's P6. With DM not running yet, I'm guessing new money should be at least 700K. Again, for O'Rourke to say this bet 'historically, has worked out once in a while with large carryovers..' is disingenuous at best. It works for the bettors that play it and the takeout on 700K+ I surmise works for the track et al.

On a side note, to some that question the future of racing, it always will exist as long as we have 'crazy, rich owners'. I missed on R10 Ruler of the Nile. Purchased as 2YO for 1M. Dumped for 16K in lifetime fifth race. Owner 2 immediately makes some money by losing him for 40K (while the horse runs 16 lengths behind - 'through at half'). Owner 3 then immediately dumps him for 8K. Current owners have made somewhere around 70K. And some call us degens...

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Thanks John

tough sequences, even with good 'capping...


Some of the 'Toga Pick-5's and 6s go 'deeper' than the avg. card, relative to 'field-size', ... you've got more live long shots, more leaders willing to push hard and either win a duel or be a tired duo in deep stretch...

Andy has given out at least a few gems so far...

Thanks for replying.

Saturday I went to Canterbury and also played Saratoga. I put all my bets in before the first race, as I always do.

I had bets in 7 races and didn't have to throw away any vouchers.
My horses either finished first or second. In the 11th race one of the 2 horses I bet to win was scratched so that voucher will go back to the track to also be cashed.

That is more races than I usually find good bets. Canterbury had ten races and I played five.

Since I can't bet Minnesota tracks from home and I can bet the next days card at Canterbury, I handicapped the 12 race card for Sunday and found no races to play. Which sometimes unfortunately does happen.

So out of 33 races I found 12 playable races, which is about normal for me.

Robert, how many races on a card do you find "good" reasons to play?

[PIC6SIX]

For me this is the final nail in the coffin. I think personally, the game is now ruined with no recourse. The only way to make a major score is gone, plethora of handicapping information now available and syndicate late money has also helped to ruin the game. Been playing since 1978 but no long!!!!!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Thanks for replying.

Saturday I went to Canterbury and also played Saratoga. I put all my bets in before the first race, as I always do.

I had bets in 7 races and didn't have to throw away any vouchers.
My horses either finished first or second. In the 11th race one of the 2 horses I bet to win was scratched so that voucher will go back to the track to also be cashed.

That is more races than I usually find good bets. Canterbury had ten races and I played five.

Since I can't bet Minnesota tracks from home and I can bet the next days card at Canterbury, I handicapped the 12 race card for Sunday and found no races to play. Which sometimes unfortunately does happen.

So out of 33 races I found 12 playable races, which is about normal for me.

Robert, how many races on a card do you find "good" reasons to play?

Sounds reasonable.

That's tough for me to answer.

The old way using every active track = I wouldn't even look at a race unless at least entrants... So that cut down the % quite a bit...

Focusing on NYRA (one circuit) = Sometimes you only need 1 significant opinion to justify looking at a P5 sequence... Then, after I've looked at the sequence, there are times when the vale isn't there, and I'd be better off passing playing Zero, or just playing Win and a Double that happens to be smack against the opinion race...

[dilanesp]

Given how this has caught on, including at some of the nation's leaders in handle, I have to believe it makes more money for the track than a traditional pick 6.

And that's the bottom line. Gambling businesses are not looking to benefit advantage players. They are looking to make money. If the way to make money is to benefit you, fine, they will do it. But that's not the goal.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Given how this has caught on, including at some of the nation's leaders in handle, I have to believe it makes more money for the track than a traditional pick 6.

And that's the bottom line. Gambling businesses are not looking to benefit advantage players. They are looking to make money. If the way to make money is to benefit you, fine, they will do it. But that's not the goal.

Short term, yes. Long term, probably not.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Given how this has caught on, including at some of the nation's leaders in handle, I have to believe it makes more money for the track than a traditional pick 6.

And that's the bottom line. Gambling businesses are not looking to benefit advantage players. They are looking to make money. If the way to make money is to benefit you, fine, they will do it. But that's not the goal.

Tracks are looking to make more income regardless of who they benefit.

I think they may be a little short sighted on the traditional P-6. For me the P-6 was my bet and I dedicated a lot of my bankroll to the bet. What I also did was spend significant time handicapping each race. As a result of handicapping the P-6 races I often found bets that were warranted outside of just the P-6. Without the traditional P-6 I would not spend the time handicapping and my betting would be substantially reduced on all fronts. Yes, the idiots playing the jackpot bets will also handicap the races and find other bets but I doubt that their betting volume will be anywhere near what the so-called "advantage players" would bring.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/news/n...-6-on-august-7

Empire 6 eff 8/7

[Cholly]

Last round-up today

[Cholly]

With no carry-over, inaugural Empire 6 pulled in $129,500 which is at least double what the old-style P6 would have drawn. Paltry payout for picking 6 ($621) would seem to suck since the otherwise chalky sequence included a $22 horse and a $14 horse.

This new bet will no doubt be a money maker for NYRA...but it won't include mine.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Cholly

With no carry-over, inaugural Empire 6 pulled in $129,500 which is at least double what the old-style P6 would have drawn. Paltry payout for picking 6 ($621) would seem to suck since the otherwise chalky sequence included a $22 horse and a $14 horse.

This new bet will no doubt be a money maker for NYRA...but it won't include mine.

I'm actually quite shocked that the jackpot wagers make money for the tracks. I wouldn't think they would.

But they obviously do, and tracks are going to offer the wagering formats that are most profitable, whether they are bettable or not. I guess you can wait around for mandatory payout days and play it then.

[classhandicapper]

I'd be willing to bet that at least half the people betting these jackpot wagers don't know or care about the differences. Even if they do, we know that many people are attracted to the "idea" of making a "huge score". The details don't seem to matter or lotteries wouldn't handle billions of dollars.

Most people are under financed to play any of these types of wagers. They will slowly bleed money from their WPS, EX, DD, TRI, PK3... bankroll and either go bust, get so frustrated with losing they'll quit, or they'll hemorrhage money faster playing the bets poorly trying to hit it. Math is math, but some people think they are smarter than math and some people don't care about math.

[arw629]

Why hasn’t a big track experimented with a $0.20 pick 6 with low takeout and no jackpot provisions ??

[Zman179]

Originally Posted by arw629

Why hasn’t a big track experimented with a $0.20 pick 6 with low takeout and no jackpot provisions ??

Because the vast majority of track executives couldn’t come up with an original idea if it bit them on the foot.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'd be willing to bet that at least half the people betting these jackpot wagers don't know or care about the differences. Even if they do, we know that many people are attracted to the "idea" of making a "huge score". The details don't seem to matter or lotteries wouldn't handle billions of dollars.

Most people are under financed to play any of these types of wagers. They will slowly bleed money from their WPS, EX, DD, TRI, PK3... bankroll and either go bust, get so frustrated with losing they'll quit, or they'll hemorrhage money faster playing the bets poorly trying to hit it. Math is math, but some people think they are smarter than math and some people don't care about math.

Bear in mind, the only reason anyone has ever been ever to make money over the long term in any peer-to-peer gambling proposition is because "some people don't care about math".