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12-19-2015, 12:50 PM
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#16
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
I agree, the entire industry will have to get behind this before it has any chance of impacting us significantly as handicappers. This is a factor that should have been available to the general racing public decades ago. There's no excuse for it not already being available. They weigh the jocks, pre-race and post-race, and people use that data frequently, but with the horse's current health status in question constantly, in the minds of handicappers, it never entered the industry's mindset at all? Ridiculous!
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Just a prediction, it won't tell us much about form. I remember when they did this at Freehold years ago and you'd see big swings in weight, but they didn't really have any correlation to performance.
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12-19-2015, 01:51 PM
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#17
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Just a prediction, it won't tell us much about form. I remember when they did this at Freehold years ago and you'd see big swings in weight, but they didn't really have any correlation to performance.
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Weight shifts are an excellent indicator of form on the Hong Kong circuit. Knowing a horse's size also (in theory) can help determine trip, though the ratio in differences isn't nearly as great as puppy racing.
I'll be interested to see if the magnitude of weight shifts provide any indication on differences in race day meds.
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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12-19-2015, 02:03 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Weight shifts are an excellent indicator of form on the Hong Kong circuit. Knowing a horse's size also (in theory) can help determine trip, though the ratio in differences isn't nearly as great as puppy racing.
I'll be interested to see if the magnitude of weight shifts provide any indication on differences in race day meds.
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Weight (mass) is a fundamental input in determining the output of a moving object; that is physics 101.
However the "wannabes" is hung up on using an output, speed which show nothing without the required inputs.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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12-19-2015, 03:03 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
Weight (mass) is a fundamental input in determining the output of a moving object; that is physics 101.
However the "wannabes" is hung up on using an output, speed which show nothing without the required inputs.
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It'll be difficult to quantify without expert visual analysis which most of us don't have. Is the added weight muscle,water or fat? The same thing with the weight loss.
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12-19-2015, 04:06 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ronsmac
It'll be difficult to quantify without expert visual analysis which most of us don't have. Is the added weight muscle,water or fat? The same thing with the weight loss.
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Wrong, quantitated mass doesn't need visual inspection. Mass is mass and it doesn't make any difference of its composition in determining its quantity.
What I believe you are attempting to debate is the disposition of mass over time with respect to distance.
This would take us from the mechanics of physics to thermodynamics to calculate burn rates which at this time is beyond the thesis of this thread.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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12-19-2015, 04:12 PM
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#21
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
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Quote:
However the "wannabes" is hung up on using an output, speed which show nothing without the required inputs.
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And yet it is used successfully ever day by many people.To say it shows nothing only shows how little some people know about the game. They just wanna pretend they know it all.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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12-19-2015, 04:40 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 10,989
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schweitz
Remington was doing this back in the 90s. I guess they stopped some point.
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Wasn't that part of the data set from the short-lived DRF competitor?
Can't even remember the name.
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All I needed in life I learned from Gary Larson.
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12-19-2015, 04:45 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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I approve. Hopefully other tracks will follow suit.
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12-19-2015, 05:03 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Prove It
It is very interesting that the poster on this forum who probably have more posts than any other never say anything but rhetoric.
However to this poster if speed is alone is as successful as you claim then prove it with fact.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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12-19-2015, 05:41 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
Wrong, quantitated mass doesn't need visual inspection. Mass is mass and it doesn't make any difference of its composition in determining its quantity.
What I believe you are attempting to debate is the disposition of mass over time with respect to distance.
This would take us from the mechanics of physics to thermodynamics to calculate burn rates which at this time is beyond the thesis of this thread.
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You know more than me. I'll take an in shape horse you take a skinny horse. Good luck.
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12-19-2015, 05:50 PM
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#26
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TJDave
Wasn't that part of the data set from the short-lived DRF competitor?
Can't even remember the name.
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Racing Times...not sure they ever published weight though, but I could be wrong.
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12-19-2015, 06:04 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ronsmac
You know more than me. I'll take an in shape horse you take a skinny horse. Good luck.
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This is not about who know the most; it is about the weight of the horse from a quantitative value.
Also I believe what you are saying about the difference between water weight and muscle weight, but that is as I stated a different calculation.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
Last edited by Cratos; 12-19-2015 at 06:12 PM.
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12-19-2015, 06:17 PM
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#28
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
I know the physiology of a dog and a horse are different, but doesn't greyhound racing report weights? When the greyhound's weight moves up or down, are there predictable performance changes? Maybe it's a bad analogy.
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This reference to greyhounds is mentioned in the article.
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12-19-2015, 06:26 PM
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#29
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
I read it yesterday, and thought immediately of Cratos (although I was also thinking of myself, too, if it ever becomes widely distributed in the proper formats).
Unfortunately, other tracks will have to incorporate it, and Equibase will have to cooperate to make it available to the various data vendors, and then the vendors will have to cooperate and make it available in their products, and unless you want to do the calculations manually (for the various performance/energy/form analysis functions) , data files must be available.
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Sorry, I also thought of you also since you, Cratos and myself plus several others have been proponents of this type of info being made available in the pp's. We've discussed the availability of this info since it's currently avail in HKJC pp info and that it should be easily implemented. In the article they were going to pass the info along to Equibase if I remember correctly. Hopefully, they take the lead because it's usefulness will only be realized if the practice becomes widespread, IMO.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 12-19-2015 at 06:33 PM.
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12-19-2015, 06:31 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Aledo,TX
Posts: 1,528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Racing Times...not sure they ever published weight though, but I could be wrong.
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I don't think they did either. Remington had prior weights on their racing programs (at least for horses who had raced at Remington before).
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