Breeders' Cup Short priced (3-1 or less) Vulnerable or Throw outs?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Well, that was a long discussion that wound up being a waste of time. It may be a better betting race now.

There are a couple horses who drew inside that may go. At least I hope so. Nothing more sickening than seeing two Bafferts walking on the lead

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Well, that was a long discussion that wound up being a waste of time. It may be a better betting race now.

adjustments to be made

Twitter

- don't overlook the scratch of Domestic Spending in the TURF, either... IDK how you guys had that race, but it plays a role...
(I loved Rockemperor as an underneath key last time off some trips, but he was fortunate the chalks didn't run, and went on to a pretty figure... he could take some underlay money now... deep field... worth digging into the euros and doing your dilligence to watch euro replays and compare the racing post RPR nd the 'OR' official london ratings? ... good luck guys

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-05-2021 at 09:35 AM.

[Andy Asaro]

My best today is Cairo Memories. If she loses I probably lose. But, saving the most iron for tomorrow

[bisket]

I didn't really look at the juvie until today. I love Corniche's breeding. I really liked Quality Road's breeding especially with the Australian influence in Strawberry Road. I was disappointed when Pletcher got him after his hoof problems early as a 3 year old. I felt with the correct training he would have been a player at the Classic distance. I see the same thing happening with Life is Good. Corniche's dad equaled Dr Fagers world record for the mile at Belmont. This kind of speed is in the right hands. Corniche has a big future. Not wagering on the race it's a toss for me. When I see 3 Baffert runners that all figure for the money in one race... it's an easy toss

[bisket]

boxed Desert Dawn, Hidden Connection, and Juju's Map in exacta and trifecta. might throw some coin on Desert Dawn's nose at the final bell.

[bisket]

Sorry Corniche's Grand dad

[classhandicapper]

Command Performance had a pretty tough trip being very wide close up to the fast pace early, but he didn't exactly run great either for a horse with a huge figure edge (on some figures).

I mentioned this earlier in the thread, I know Jack Christopher ran great in the Champagne, but I'm less certain the performances of Command Performance and Wit were as good as they looked picking up the very tired chasers behind that fast pace on a track where the flows seems to be a bit more advantageous to closers than average to begin with. He may be good, but not quite as good as that figure.

[bisket]

Looking at the Sprint. Lexitonian is an interesting longshot. Came from the clouds in the Bing Crosby to miss by a nose last year. So he likes to run on the turn at Del Mar. He gets the 1 hole in the Vanderbilt and for the first time he's hustled from the gate and runs the race of his life. That race is sandwiched with two races with bad racing luck. Which will make his odds even juicier. Question is do I play a straight exacta with Jackies Warrior on top or do I go all in and box it? exacta will pays will decide or can I find a good third place bet for a tri. I'm throwing that figure from Philly out for Jackies Warrior; it's an outlier. This entire scenario depends on the jock and connections being intelligent enough to hustle him from the gate again....

[Redboard]

I have Firenze Fire as my value play in the Sprint, although you made a good case for .
FF had a tough trip last race including breaking thru the gate but still held on for second(albeit only a field of 4).
Was third in this race last year. Irad jumping off gives me some pause but if he holds his value he's well worth it.
C Z Rocket might be worth a look too. Second in this race last year and likes the course.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I have Firenze Fire as my value play in the Sprint, although you made a good case for .
FF had a tough trip last race including breaking thru the gate but still held on for second(albeit only a field of 4).
Was third in this race last year. Irad jumping off gives me some pause but if he holds his value he's well worth it.
C Z Rocket might be worth a look too. Second in this race last year and likes the course.

I landed on Aloha West for my third runner. I like a closer after Jackie hustles them along early

[bisket]

Bob Manfuso and Katherine Voss are Breeders Cup winners

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I don't care how good Jackie's Warrior looks on paper, if you look at Asmussen's barn at major tracks (NY and KY) since October 8, the start of Keeneland, he's 2 for 79. And the two winners paid $3.20 and $6.20.

This Asmussen ice cold slump IS a thing.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I have no concrete basis for this opinion. Just a gut feel.

I think LETRUSKA is going to get beat.

I think it's likely she'll be the shortest price favorite.

That fact alone feels in line with the last BC at Del Mar.

Plus I've heard virtually no talk at all about the Distaff almost as though it's a foregone conclusion.

I think DUNBAR ROAD is quietly getting very very good. It's hidden because she's finished behind LETRUSKA the last two times.

We talked about this earlier in the thread. I don't know if you bet her, but I had a win bet on Dunbar Road, exactas with Royal Flag and Malathaat, and Royal Flag over the other two. The win bet was brutal enough, but if the Japanese horses didn't run big, that exacta would have been sweeeeet for me.

I played for the pace meltdown, but that was a meltdown squared.

[classhandicapper]

Jackie's Warrior had surgery, but he'll be back next year.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ace-next-year/