Breeders' Cup Short priced (3-1 or less) Vulnerable or Throw outs?

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

thanks, did not realize the timeframe for when juicing matters.

Only when you are getting tested. I have no idea if Baffert juices horses, wasn't implying that. But there is a reason humans have out of competition testing and not just the few weeks before they compete and the day of an event.

[classhandicapper]

This doesn't come up as often now as in the past, but I think it's an advantage to come into the BC relatively fresh and on the upside of your form cycle. Sometimes the horse that has been running the best recently is not the horse that fires the best shot at the end.

[v j stauffer]

I have no concrete basis for this opinion. Just a gut feel.

I think LETRUSKA is going to get beat.

I think it's likely she'll be the shortest price favorite.

That fact alone feels in line with the last BC at Del Mar.

Plus I've heard virtually no talk at all about the Distaff almost as though it's a foregone conclusion.

I think DUNBAR ROAD is quietly getting very very good. It's hidden because she's finished behind LETRUSKA the last two times.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I have no concrete basis for this opinion. Just a gut feel.

I think LETRUSKA is going to get beat.

I think it's likely she'll be the shortest price favorite.

That fact alone feels in line with the last BC at Del Mar.

Plus I've heard virtually no talk at all about the Distaff almost as though it's a foregone conclusion.

I think DUNBAR ROAD is quietly getting very very good. It's hidden because she's finished behind LETRUSKA the last two times.

I'm a bit interested in Dunbar Road also, but I think she'll need some help with the setup.

Letruska has had a brilliant campaign, but I'm almost certain we've already seen the best she has to offer. If anything, she's probably more vulnerable to going backwards than some of the others.

There are a couple I think are quietly inching forward, including Royal Flag and Dunbar Road. Then you have 3yos like Malathaat and Private Mission who may get tossed by some because they look a little slower, but they are the most likely to make a jump. Malathaat has been handled beautifully for a new peak.

The key may be whether horses like Horologist, Private Mission, and Shedaresthedevil make a serious effort for the lead. They can't allow Letruska to walk on the lead.

I'm going to try to beat her unless the track is heavily biased. I'm not sure with who yet. It will depend on post position, how the track is playing, and price. I may spread a little in the verticals. If she wins again it will top off a fabulous season.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I have no concrete basis for this opinion. Just a gut feel.

I think LETRUSKA is going to get beat.

I think it's likely she'll be the shortest price favorite.

That fact alone feels in line with the last BC at Del Mar.

Plus I've heard virtually no talk at all about the Distaff almost as though it's a foregone conclusion.

I think DUNBAR ROAD is quietly getting very very good. It's hidden because she's finished behind LETRUSKA the last two times.

i think this race is going to won or lost at the draw

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...17230298284036

I don't find much fault with a lot of what was said there. Anytime you need to hook Bob to finish him off at the quarter pole then you usually need to be looking over your shoulder because something is probably coming. He may even enter Rockefeller too which could potentially bring flexibility in setting up roadblocks. Anytime we take a low price going against Bob in big races we probably need to question whether we've overestimated our chances a bit IMO. He's 'right' much more than I've been over the years. Even if you believe the champagne number those one-turn miles are really different anyway, Easy Goers giant Gotham and who else was it, Grand Slam? Different dynamics altogether. It doesn't mean there isn't talent evident but it's a whole different ballgame to repeat the number at two turns. You've put fatigue into that lead earlier in the race on the clubhouse turn to secure position and then you need to go back to it on the far turn, often in a really big way, that makes it different.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

Excerpt:


Yes, Knicks Go is the 3-1 favorite to win the Breeders' Cup Classic in Bovada's futures odds.

A strong field is expected, including stablemate Essential Quality and Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.

[Breeders' Cup Classic 2021: Meet the fastest contenders]

But after losses in the Saudi Cup and the Met Mile earlier this year, Knicks Go has strung together three straight wins – including an impressive 4 1/2-length win over Maxfield in the Whitney.

But, but: The 5-year-old son of Paynter never has raced farther than 1 1/8 miles. That seems to be the most consistently raised concern about his chances on Nov. 6.

"I guess there's a little bit of a question mark if he can get a mile and a quarter," trainer Brad Cox said last month. "I feel like he can at Del Mar."

The question comes up so often, one might wonder whether it has ever been done: Has the Breeders' Cup Classic ever had a winner that had not raced at 1 1/4 miles?

Yes. Three, in fact.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

The question comes up so often, one might wonder whether it has ever been done: Has the Breeders' Cup Classic ever had a winner that had not raced at 1 1/4 miles?

Yes. Three, in fact.

I can remember Zenyatta winning without a mile and a quarter race prior, though that was on a synthetic surface which she loved. One of the main reasons I did not play her.

Surprised there are only three winners like that given there are so few one mile and a quarter graded dirt races anymore.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...28738789801984



Excerpt:


Yes, Knicks Go is the 3-1 favorite to win the Breeders' Cup Classic in Bovada's futures odds.

A strong field is expected, including stablemate Essential Quality and Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.

[Breeders' Cup Classic 2021: Meet the fastest contenders]

But after losses in the Saudi Cup and the Met Mile earlier this year, Knicks Go has strung together three straight wins – including an impressive 4 1/2-length win over Maxfield in the Whitney.

But, but: The 5-year-old son of Paynter never has raced farther than 1 1/8 miles. That seems to be the most consistently raised concern about his chances on Nov. 6.

"I guess there's a little bit of a question mark if he can get a mile and a quarter," trainer Brad Cox said last month. "I feel like he can at Del Mar."

The question comes up so often, one might wonder whether it has ever been done: Has the Breeders' Cup Classic ever had a winner that had not raced at 1 1/4 miles?

Yes. Three, in fact.

I don’t like Knicks Go here. Much rather go with the improving 3 yr olds

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...17230298284036

This is my article.

Jack Christopher has looked amazing in his two starts at this point. But he's trying two turns and going a slightly longer distance as the (possibly) heavy favorite.

I don't like to rely on favorites trying something new. That's all. As we've seen with Complexity and Jackie's Warrior, sometimes winning big in a one-turn mile doesn't translate into two turns at 1 1/16 miles.

If Jack Christopher wins big anyway and I lose, that's okay.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

This is my article.

Jack Christopher has looked amazing in his two starts at this point. But he's trying two turns and going a slightly longer distance as the (possibly) heavy favorite.

I don't like to rely on favorites trying something new. That's all. As we've seen with Complexity and Jackie's Warrior, sometimes winning big in a one-turn mile doesn't translate into two turns at 1 1/16 miles.

If Jack Christopher wins big anyway and I lose, that's okay.

I like your opinion. In general we should always look for ways to beat the favorite

[rastajenk]

But he's still an Automatic in the horizontals.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

This is my article.

Jack Christopher has looked amazing in his two starts at this point. But he's trying two turns and going a slightly longer distance as the (possibly) heavy favorite.

I don't like to rely on favorites trying something new. That's all. As we've seen with Complexity and Jackie's Warrior, sometimes winning big in a one-turn mile doesn't translate into two turns at 1 1/16 miles.

If Jack Christopher wins big anyway and I lose, that's okay.

If Jack Christopher runs as well as Jackie's Warrior did last year then he's about 80% or more to win here. Comparing the two horses is nonsensical in my opinion. Jack Christopher rated comfortably last time. It also makes comparing him to Complexity confusing. Complexity was eased and didn't run again for seven months. Plenty of horses have won the Champagne and then a two turn BC Juvenile. Jackie's Warrior does have distance limitations but his BC Juvenile effort was exceptional given the pace ( and the winner is pretty good ). Uncle Mo, Shanghai Bobby, among others, have parlayed success in the Champagne to the BC. Union Rags lost by a nose. War Pass used his brilliant speed to run one of the best BC Juveniles ever.

Jack Christopher may not win the BC Juvenile but I think cherry picking questionable Champagne-BC Juvenile efforts, while ignoring so many others, is faulty logic.