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Old 11-07-2021, 01:26 PM   #61
Maximillion
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Whatever was ailing MS is gone now and he's in career best form and probably closer to KG than the final margin imo.
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Old 11-07-2021, 02:04 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
medina dueling would have caused Medina to finish near last,
That is pure speculation with no basis in fact given how well he ran. It is almost as likely they still run 1-2, possible he puts away Knicks Go and goes on to win, and of course your scenario is also possible. We just don't know. But he ran way too good to assume he'd just spit the bit and fade away.
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Old 11-07-2021, 02:26 PM   #63
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made no sense, but after the stressful weekend for bettors, you were forced to either 'stick to your guns' and bet the obvious Knicks Go, or to adapt and spread a bit.
I'm not sure if I even should have made a play in the race.

I was the one saying a couple of week ago I thought Essential Quality might be the post time favorite. But I had it in my head that the only horses among the contenders I might be willing to leave out were Knicks Go (10F a question mark and potential pressure from Medina Spirit) and Medina Spirit (having to chase Knicks Go and potentially hooking up). The others I expected to run their race no matter how it developed. But the way it was bet, it's not like throwing Knicks Go out at 3.20-1 was a particularly good idea. lol I should have adjusted my thinking and got a beer.
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Old 11-07-2021, 09:10 PM   #64
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Never forget to take into consideration the people that fund our sport. Ownership of Medina Spirit probably needed place money to fund their lawsuit against Churchill.
Did the ownership of Essential Quality need show money for something? That should be the focus of discussion.

For a horse known to dislike being behind and inside other horses Saez sure had no problem with dropping EQ on the rail, behind and inside his rivals. Rail being deader as the day went on to boot.

There's a reason why they call it the Breeders' Cup, and whatever the connections of Knicks Go made on the purse yesterday will pale in comparison to what they get out of the breeding shed with him now that he's "proven" at a Classic distance, something his stablemate already had on his resume.

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Old 11-08-2021, 09:06 AM   #65
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Did the ownership of Essential Quality need show money for something? That should be the focus of discussion.

For a horse known to dislike being behind and inside other horses Saez sure had no problem with dropping EQ on the rail, behind and inside his rivals. Rail being deader as the day went on to boot.

There's a reason why they call it the Breeders' Cup, and whatever the connections of Knicks Go made on the purse yesterday will pale in comparison to what they get out of the breeding shed with him now that he's "proven" at a Classic distance, something his stablemate already had on his resume.
A few people have commented that the rail was bad.

I didn't notice that live. If that rail was bad, imo it certainly wasn't death. There were a couple of horses that ran poorly inside (Jackie's Warrior being one) but a few horses made good runs inside even if they didn't win. I'm going to have to watch the replays.
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Old 11-08-2021, 10:19 AM   #66
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How was Knicks Go not favored? Whether you look at Thorograph or Beyers figs, he was the clear standout.
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Old 11-08-2021, 10:35 AM   #67
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In my opinion the reason Knicks Go was not favored is that the crowd is more familiar with the triple crown horses, and has a tendency to overrate those horses.

I went into this thing with the mistaken idea that Knicks Go would be the favorite. It screwed up my mojo. The odds he went off at made him a gift. this is not redboarding because I did not have it.

I only realize with 20/20 hindsight. i kept thinking when the late money comes in that Knicks Go would be the favorite. I was wrong.
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Old 11-08-2021, 11:09 AM   #68
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I'm not sure if I even should have made a play in the race.

I was the one saying a couple of week ago I thought Essential Quality might be the post time favorite. But I had it in my head that the only horses among the contenders I might be willing to leave out were Knicks Go (10F a question mark and potential pressure from Medina Spirit) and Medina Spirit (having to chase Knicks Go and potentially hooking up). The others I expected to run their race no matter how it developed. But the way it was bet, it's not like throwing Knicks Go out at 3.20-1 was a particularly good idea. lol I should have adjusted my thinking and got a beer.
Odds are really important!!!!!
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Old 11-08-2021, 11:45 AM   #69
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How was Knicks Go not favored? Whether you look at Thorograph or Beyers figs, he was the clear standout.
It was what I said a few weeks back.

If you look at his overall record, he was always a very fast horse, but he's never been especially good taking pressure and winning. Granted, he's way better now, but Charlatan put him away. The combination of being untested at 10F and the potential for early pressure from Medina Spirit or someone else was at least a risk to consider. Plus, this 3yo crop has proved very strong and has been moving forward all year. No one was going to be shocked if one of them moved forward again. I predicted all that would be built into the thinking and Essential Quality would be favored and he was. But credit to Knicks Go. He's very fast and keeps going once he's loose. And none of the 3yos took a significant jump.

If you took the 3.20 - 1 more power to you.
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Old 11-08-2021, 12:06 PM   #70
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Anyone else notice/find interesting he seemed to be running down the stretch with his head turned to the right? He did it a few times. Is that typical for him?
Unless the jock is counteracting a lugging-in mount (which, in itself, could indicate an ouchy RIGHT front), what you observed is commonly associated with the horse shifting weight off the LEFT front.

Even great horses can have physical issues.

Last edited by mountainman; 11-08-2021 at 12:08 PM.
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Old 11-08-2021, 12:44 PM   #71
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That is pure speculation with no basis in fact given how well he ran. It is almost as likely they still run 1-2, possible he puts away Knicks Go and goes on to win, and of course your scenario is also possible. We just don't know. But he ran way too good to assume he'd just spit the bit and fade away.
Good points.

I was exaggerating in the heat of festivities.
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Old 11-08-2021, 12:51 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
It was what I said a few weeks back.

If you look at his overall record, he was always a very fast horse, but he's never been especially good taking pressure and winning. Granted, he's way better now, but Charlatan put him away. The combination of being untested at 10F and the potential for early pressure from Medina Spirit or someone else was at least a risk to consider. Plus, this 3yo crop has proved very strong and has been moving forward all year. No one was going to be shocked if one of them moved forward again. I predicted all that would be built into the thinking and Essential Quality would be favored and he was. But credit to Knicks Go. He's very fast and keeps going once he's loose. And none of the 3yos took a significant jump.

If you took the 3.20 - 1 more power to you.
One of the tough things about handicapping the Classic (or other similarly big races) is that whatever pace scenarios a handicapper constructs are subject to whatever the riders and trainers do.

I remember seeing this in 1991- I thought someone (I forget who) would go out with Black Tie Affair and tire him out. It didn't happen, and Black Tie Affair got to waltz around the Churchill Downs track and make me look like an idiot.

Justify's Belmont is another example. I assumed that a couple of horses were going to go out with them. They didn't.

And of course, there's Bayern's infamous Breeders Cup Classic, where the horse that we expected to go out with him got taken out at the start.

How is anyone supposed to know if Baffert is going to have Medina Spirit sit off the pace? But it totally changes your pace analysis if you know that. NOT because Knicks Go wouldn't have won anyway- I agree with cj's point on that- but simply because we're assuming he's going to get more pressure than he got.

It's just really hard to handicap races where trainers are thinking this much about pace strategy. It's much easier to look at the 4th at Charles Town and say "there's 3 speed horses who are going out here, is there anyone who can come from off the pace?". Because those 3 speed horses are likely to gun.
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Old 11-08-2021, 12:55 PM   #73
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How was Knicks Go not favored? Whether you look at Thorograph or Beyers figs, he was the clear standout.
One suggestion, he has never ran at the distance. 1 1/4, and in a field of proven distance winners. That's a long race
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Old 11-08-2021, 03:46 PM   #74
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It's just really hard to handicap races where trainers are thinking this much about pace strategy.
When I project pace scenarios, I think in terms of probabilities or pluses and minuses.

I know that whatever I project as the most likely scenario is not going to happen all the time. Sometimes the opposite happens. Even more frustrating is sometimes I am right about the pace, but the race doesn't flow the way I expected despite being right about the pace.

I have some data I can use to help estimate how likely I am to be correct about the pace and how likely the race is to flow as I expect depending on the conditions. I try not to get too crazy about it because the details are always a little different. Pluses and minuses are good enough for me.
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Old 11-09-2021, 10:36 AM   #75
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Even more frustrating is sometimes I am right about the pace, but the race doesn't flow the way I expected despite being right about the pace.
I think we agree on this. Wayne. But it comes down to word semantics. ie your definition of "pace" and "flow." I suspect your statement covers unexpected strategies and early positions.
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