Knicks Go - Page 7 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

cj · 11-10-2021, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

For the record, Thorograph made both Friday and Saturday dead rails.

One of the problems I'm running into is that there are no head on replays for some races. It's tough to tell which path certain horses were running in without head on replays.

While watching I thought it might be a little dead inside, but now that I've made the figures I'm going to go back and evaluate more seriously.

cj · 11-10-2021, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

While watching I thought it might be a little dead inside, but now that I've made the figures I'm going to go back and evaluate more seriously.

I'm not buying it on Friday. Both Juvenile winners went wire-to-wire spending plenty of time inside. I don't need to dig any deeper than that.

classhandicapper · 11-10-2021, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I'm not buying it on Friday. Both Juvenile winners went wire-to-wire spending plenty of time inside. I don't need to dig any deeper than that.

I misread his Sheets on Friday because I just checked and I don't see the bad rail notation for either of those two horses even though he has both horses running on the rail. I must have confused something when I was reviewing the races. Thanks.

Usually that kind of stuff screams at me, but it wasn't screaming at me Saturday while I was watching live. I saw some horses run poorly inside but I saw some horses makes good moves inside or not disappointing by enough that I'd conclude the rail was clearly bad. I get very detailed about it and even try to differentiate between the turns and stretch which are sometimes different. I'll review it some more too. It sucks having no head on replays for many races.

classhandicapper · 11-10-2021, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp

There should be a head-on for every race here:

https://www.calracing.com/live-video/replays/

When I couldn't find them at my usual sources, I checked there, but some of them aren't there either.

metro · 11-10-2021, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

For the record, Thorograph made both Friday and Saturday dead rails.

One of the problems I'm running into is that there are no head on replays for some races. It's tough to tell which path certain horses were running in without head on replays.

I actually thought the inside was a big advantage on both surfaces Friday, Saturday not so much and on dirt started thinking the rail may be dead once Gamine got put away by Bella Sophia. Jackie's Warrior seemed to confirm that for me but, save for Zulu Echo, Assmusen's runners were pretty bad all weekend.

I commented on the (dead) rail because it was strange to see Saez have no trouble putting EQ on it in the Classic, this knowing the horse's history. I keyed EQ (1st and 2nd) thinking he was going to get that outside stalking trip that he had won pretty much every race with save for the Derby. My tickets were dead by the 1st turn.

the little guy · 11-10-2021, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metro

I actually thought the inside was a big advantage on both surfaces Friday, Saturday not so much and on dirt started thinking the rail may be dead once Gamine got put away by Bella Sophia. Jackie's Warrior seemed to confirm that for me but, save for Zulu Echo, Assmusen's runners were pretty bad all weekend.

I commented on the (dead) rail because it was strange to see Saez have no trouble putting EQ on it in the Classic, this knowing the horse's history. I keyed EQ (1st and 2nd) thinking he was going to get that outside stalking trip that he had won pretty much every race with save for the Derby. My tickets were dead by the 1st turn.

Gamine was never on the rail. The longshot that was second ( Edgeway ) was on the rail. Life is Good spent most of the race on the rail.

dilanesp · 11-10-2021, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

When I couldn't find them at my usual sources, I checked there, but some of them aren't there either.

Xpressbet has head ons of everything but the Sprint on Saturday and everything but the Dirt Mile and Juvenile Fillies on Friday. Are those the ones you are missing?

SharpCat · 11-10-2021, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy

Gamine was never on the rail. The longshot that was second ( Edgeway ) was on the rail. Life is Good spent most of the race on the rail.

Life is Good was never on the rail until the stretch.

metro · 11-11-2021, 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy

Gamine was never on the rail. The longshot that was second ( Edgeway ) was on the rail. Life is Good spent most of the race on the rail.

Maybe I should have just said the inside paths were bad, save the splitting of hairs that would ensue.

It's not just about who struggled with inside trips either, it's those who outran their odds with outside stalking/wide trips.

classhandicapper · 11-11-2021, 03:01 PM

This conversation is exactly why you need head on replays.

I typically put the least amount of weight on the backstretch for a few reasons, but without a head on it's sometimes difficult to tell exactly which path a horse was running in from the pan. Even on the turn it's often difficult because as they come out of the turn they tend to drift out. Some horses give you the perception they were off the rail when they were actually on it for parts of the turn. The stretch is clearer, but it's often kind of like the backstretch in that most horses that spent some time on the rail were not on the rail the whole way. Worse, is that any bias that exists is not necessarily the same in the stretch as on the banked turn.

The BC Thorograph sheets are available for free at their website. You can download the results for both days and see which horses were on the rail, Jerry's speed figures going into the races, and what they earned in the BC races. Then you can see why he made Saturday a BR and decide if you agree based on the rest of the trip and your own opinions on the horses.

classhandicapper · 11-14-2021, 04:13 PM

NBC Sports on Youtube has some very good replays of the BC Races where you can see the paths a lot better than the official Pan replay for at least parts of the races.

Here's the Filly and Mare Sprint

Distaff

Sprint

Classic

They must all be out there.

taxicab · 11-17-2021, 08:27 PM

Now ranked number one in the world.
Next up.......The Pegasus.

https://www.ifhaonline.org/resources...R.asp?batch=85

the little guy · 11-17-2021, 10:17 PM

If Life is Good runs in the Pegasus, as they are saying right now, Knicks Go will not. No way he is facing that horse's speed with little to gain and something to lose.

taxicab · 11-17-2021, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy

If Life is Good runs in the Pegasus, as they are saying right now, Knicks Go will not. No way he is facing that horse's speed with little to gain and something to lose.

If Knicks Go is pointing to the Pegasus,and is 100%........I don't think any horse scares his connections out of the race.........for any reason.

SG4 · 11-18-2021, 02:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy

If Life is Good runs in the Pegasus, as they are saying right now, Knicks Go will not. No way he is facing that horse's speed with little to gain and something to lose.

Would be nice if someday we could all say the winner's share of a $3 million race is little to gain. I would think Knicks Go really comes into the race with nothing to lose, it's a last hurrah, stud fee is already set, what's the downside? Did people look at California Chrome's stinker of a career finale in the Pegasus & hold that against him?