BC Distaff

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by tzipi

Should be on the wire if people are betting their money and they want to get it right for the bettors. On twitter, some people are a bit mad.

Watching it on TV I thought Beholder finally got her nose/head in front just before the wire but that Songbird got the bob and may have eked out a dead heat or a lucky win. But from the photo it looks like Beholder got every inch of the bob to win by a hair.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Watching it on TV I thought Beholder finally got her nose/head in front just before the wire but that Songbird got the bob and may have eked out a dead heat or a lucky win. But from the photo it looks like Beholder got every inch of the bob to win by a hair.

From the photo, yes, agree. From the video they showed a ton of times to the public, Songbird won.

If you put in Songbird won into twitter, people are showing the photo and slow gif of Songbird keeping her nose in front the whole time. How the camera is not on the wire in the Breeders Cup is beyond me.

[depalma113]

Corona Del Inca breaking down is not what this race needed.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by tzipi

From the photo, yes, agree. From the video they showed a ton of times to the public, Songbird won.

Yup...like I said in another thread, if you had a gun to my head, I'd be dead. But instead, I cash.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yup...like I said in another thread, if you had a gun to my head, I'd be dead. But instead, I cash.

Me too Pace haha. But congrats!

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by AndyC

It is an "invalid theory" to believe that people betting on pretty names and daughter's ages can move the needle much at all.

Give me an example of an invalid theory that people are using to make their bets.

You are obviously unaware of all the crazy money bet by large segments of the unsophisticated public at Derby time. That's why you can better prices on the race.

You want an example? How about the theory that horses who finish 2nd in the Derby cannot win the Preakness?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by tzipi

From the photo, yes, agree. From the video they showed a ton of times to the public, Songbird won.

If you put in Songbird won into twitter, people are showing the photo and slow gif of Songbird keeping her nose in front the whole time. How the camera is not on the wire in the Breeders Cup is beyond me.

The only reason the finish was so close is that Songbird actually had the advantage of the head bob. If you look at the photo Beholder's body, saddle and rider were actually more than a head in front.

Actually if Beholder had not gone so wide on both turns she would have won by 4 or 5 lengths. What a great mare to overcome this.

[Doza]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

The only reason the finish was so close is that Songbird actually had the advantage of the head bob. If you look at the photo Beholder's body, saddle and rider were actually more than a head in front.

Actually if Beholder had not gone so wide on both turns she would have won by 4 or 5 lengths. What a great mare to overcome this.

Beholder wins by 4 or 5 lengths if she wasn't so wide? Maybe 4 or 5 feet, but certainly not lengths. What a great race though!!

[nearco]

Originally Posted by Doza

Beholder wins by 4 or 5 lengths if she wasn't so wide? Maybe 4 or 5 feet, but certainly not lengths. What a great race though!!

According to trakus, she ran 40ft more than Songbird.
At the standard 8ft/length, that's 5 lengths.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by nearco

According to trakus, she ran 40ft more than Songbird.
At the standard 8ft/length, that's 5 lengths.

That's not really a valid extrapolation in this situation, although obviously the trip helped Songbird.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

The stupid money I was referring to in big races like the Derby is that bet by people who know nothing about racing so they bet the horse with a pretty name or their daughters age.

The other kind of foolish money is that bet those that don't know how to use stats and believe in "race specific" handicapping. This creates betting opportunities for those who know what they're doing.

Yes BC races are very contentious with a lot of unknowns, but avoiding invalid theories makes them more predictable.

There's stupid money in the stock market too. Doesn't negate the efficient markets hypothesis.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Memory tends to go as you get older.

3 BC's and an awesome win over colts in the Pacific Classic. There's an argument he is right. Silver Charm is probably the other possibility.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

3 BC's and an awesome win over colts in the Pacific Classic. There's an argument he is right. Silver Charm is probably the other possibility.

Point Given is the correct answer.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Point Given is the correct answer.

Only if you don't care about career accomplishments or the level of competition.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

The only reason the finish was so close is that Songbird actually had the advantage of the head bob. If you look at the photo Beholder's body, saddle and rider were actually more than a head in front.

Actually if Beholder had not gone so wide on both turns she would have won by 4 or 5 lengths. What a great mare to overcome this.

Omg. You're really hell bent on dissing Songbird it seems. Maybe it's because you took such a big stand against her, calling her a total toss.

You can't just move horses like blocks based on feet ran. There are too many other variables to consider. Both ran a great race and Beholder wasn't so wide for it to have been significant. Beholder was in the garden spot that her trainer wanted her in, because he understands they're not blocks. For all intents and purposes, both had perfect trips and they were separated by a nose.