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11-04-2016, 03:17 PM
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#151
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AndyC
Which horses will the stupid money be backing? Knowing that stupid money will create good betting opportunities for smart money, wouldn't the smart money increase dramatically to suck up all of the stupidity?
Big races usually bring more confusion. Not knowing whether or not a shipper will like the surface. Distance questions. Ambiguous pace scenarios. Etc., etc. For most of us, our money is also stupid. The good news is that confusion also brings opportunity. If for just one magical race a handicapper can cut through the fog of the confusion they will generally be rewarded with a good payoff. The attraction of such races to handicappers is hard to resist.
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The stupid money I was referring to in big races like the Derby is that bet by people who know nothing about racing so they bet the horse with a pretty name or their daughters age.
The other kind of foolish money is that bet those that don't know how to use stats and believe in "race specific" handicapping. This creates betting opportunities for those who know what they're doing.
Yes BC races are very contentious with a lot of unknowns, but avoiding invalid theories makes them more predictable.
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11-04-2016, 03:21 PM
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#152
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bobphilo
The stupid money I was referring to in big races like the Derby is that bet by people who know nothing about racing so they bet the horse with a pretty name or their daughters age.
The other kind of foolish money is that bet those that don't know how to use stats and believe in "race specific" handicapping. This creates betting opportunities for those who know what they're doing.
Yes BC races are very contentious with a lot of unknowns, but avoiding invalid theories makes them more predictable.
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Been talking about this all week! Arriving at value simply by the process of elimination!
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11-04-2016, 03:43 PM
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#153
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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In February I watched Songbird for the first time, I thought then that she could win the Derby if she ran there. Just a few hours to go here and I'll say it again for the last time.
Songbird wins this race.
Easily.
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11-04-2016, 04:12 PM
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#154
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Forever Unbridled - Steller Wind. exacta. straight and box.
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11-04-2016, 04:32 PM
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#155
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
In February I watched Songbird for the first time, I thought then that she could win the Derby if she ran there. Just a few hours to go here and I'll say it again for the last time.
Songbird wins this race.
Easily.
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Well I certainly am savoring the fact that you said it for the last time. I can breathe now!
Anyway just joking. This is going to be an exciting race. Good luck man!
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11-04-2016, 06:22 PM
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#156
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Well I certainly am savoring the fact that you said it for the last time. I can breathe now!
Anyway just joking. This is going to be an exciting race. Good luck man!
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LOL OK OK, I'll just sit here quietly and wait for the race...
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11-04-2016, 06:27 PM
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#157
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bobphilo
The stupid money I was referring to in big races like the Derby is that bet by people who know nothing about racing so they bet the horse with a pretty name or their daughters age.
The other kind of foolish money is that bet those that don't know how to use stats and believe in "race specific" handicapping. This creates betting opportunities for those who know what they're doing.
Yes BC races are very contentious with a lot of unknowns, but avoiding invalid theories makes them more predictable.
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It is an "invalid theory" to believe that people betting on pretty names and daughter's ages can move the needle much at all.
Give me an example of an invalid theory that people are using to make their bets.
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11-04-2016, 07:44 PM
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#158
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,632
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Stevens has said that Beholder is the best horse he has ever ridden...
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11-04-2016, 07:59 PM
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#159
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by davew
Stevens has said that Beholder is the best horse he has ever ridden...
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Memory tends to go as you get older.
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11-04-2016, 08:02 PM
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#160
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 971
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Wow - what a great finish. Just speaking as a racing fan. Two champions fighting it out to the wire. Props to Beholder and no shame to Songbird.
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11-04-2016, 08:04 PM
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#161
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,034
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Anyone have the slow motion gif of that finish. Man, I SWORE Songbird lead her nose from mirror to end of mirror. 
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11-04-2016, 08:07 PM
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#162
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 379
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Looks like they stretched Beholders nose out in that photo. ;-)
What a great race!
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11-04-2016, 08:07 PM
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#163
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tzipi
Anyone have the slow motion gif of that finish. Man, I SWORE Songbird lead her nose from mirror to end of mirror. |
The video camera is at an angle passed the wire.
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11-04-2016, 08:08 PM
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#164
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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That was a great race, but I really wish Stellar Wind would have gotten out of the gate well just to see how she would have run with the expected trip. It might have been 3 of them.
Beholder was terrific and best today. She goes out the champion she is.
I suspect that Songbird is going to be better next year with the seasoning she got from that stretch drive today. This is not the first time I've seen a top horse come up a hair short the first time they faced this kind of stretch battle. You could probably even argue that if they didn't go for the bigger money and easier spot in the Cotillion and faced older instead, she would have been more battle ready for today. Another great champion. No disgrace.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-04-2016 at 08:14 PM.
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11-04-2016, 08:09 PM
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#165
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,034
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by depalma113
The video camera is at an angle passed the wire.
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Should be on the wire if people are betting their money and they want to get it right for the bettors. On twitter, some people are a bit mad. Looked like it was head on to the mirror.
Great race no matter anyway. 
Last edited by tzipi; 11-04-2016 at 08:10 PM.
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