KEEN ICE!!!

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by onefast99

You can't blame the connections they wanted to parade him around the Northeast where they live. After the race the jock said AP felt different especially on the way to the gate and at the 5/8ths marker. I don't know if the 9000 mile trips in the past 21 days got him or if Frosted just took the starch out of him. On a different note did one of the TVG guys say we now have a new contender for the 3 y/o of the year? Please tell me I didn't hear that .

Yeah, no way. AP handed this horse his behind a couple of times already.

I'm normally of the mind of "the TC winner shouldn't be automatic horse of the year". But this would be like voting for JO Tobin for 3 year old of the year in 1977.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by onefast99

You can't blame the connections they wanted to parade him around the Northeast where they live. After the race the jock said AP felt different especially on the way to the gate and at the 5/8ths marker. I don't know if the 9000 mile trips in the past 21 days got him or if Frosted just took the starch out of him. On a different note did one of the TVG guys say we now have a new contender for the 3 y/o of the year? Please tell me I didn't hear that .

Incredible if you heard that... outlandish.

[porchy44]

I was told Baffert is 2 for 40 in graded stakes at Saratoga. ( I have not verified this yet)

The only reason American Pharoah can lose is just what happened today. If he is headed every step of the way or a horse like Frosted is at his throat latch the entire 1 1/4.

[highnote]

TV analysts said Castellano has won 4 of the past 5 Travers.

They also noted that Espinoza's only mount on the day was in the Travers and Bailey thought it was a mistake. He should have other mounts in order to get his timing down.

Bailey would know. I saw him work on his timing for two days at Churchill prepping for the BC Classic aboard Concern.

Espinoza says he has been practicing for 6 hours per day for "Dancing With The Stars". Perhaps he should have had his mind on riding today, instead?

Also, AP has a 4.33 dosage -- that's high for a classic distance. Keen Ice has a 2.73 dosage -- well, within the classic range.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by porchy44

I was told Baffert is 2 for 40 in graded stakes at Saratoga. ( I have not verified this yet)

No. He has about a 20 percent winrate.

[porchy44]

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/a...yard-favorites

Quote from the article above:

"Baffert has a decent record at Saratoga since 1999, according to Equibase. He has won with 21 of 97 starts (21.6 percent). His graded stakes record there, however, is only eight of 59 (13 percent)."

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Kash$

Unfortunatly he did using Keen Ice to close out the pick 4

How do you know? Not another one of his questionable ADW spreadsheets he likes to post here.

[Tommy Tom]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Singling a 16-1 in a pick 3, or any horizontal bet, doesn't make sense. You got 3-1 for your money, when you could have gotten 16-1.

The way I was thinking is if I beat AP with my one selection of Keen Ice I wanted a huge payoff...a monster ticket.....I felt in Race 9 Private Zone could be beat and I loved the high odds on some of the other horses as well..

Then in the 10th I knew Flintshire would get hammered and I felt a couple of the bombs could possible win...Guardini and Messi to name just 2 and at high odds.....

So if I could have caught a break and had at least one bomb hit say in the 10th to knock out Flintshire and than have Keen Ice beat AP in the Travers I felt for my $72 invested could have possibly returned a $ 5k + or much more Pick 3 due to the large amount of money in the Pk 3 pool with most on AP and that is what I was hoping and hunting for .

If I didn't feel so rushed structuring my wagers as the NY Rewards site suddenly started slowing quickly I might have taken more advantage of my only selection of Keen Ice but I would not have changed the Pk 3 ticket I played.....I just could not catch a bomb in either one of the first 2 legs but I still won money on the wager...but that same exact wager could have won many many thousands too.

So that was my thinking.

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thousght going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.

Class I watched the first few races then went out. From the first few dirt races I thought there was a clear outside advantage. Then I heard on the radio both Unbridled Forever win the Ballerina off a :46 half and Runnin Happy win the King's Bishop starting from the far outside and figured outside paths continued to be best. Watched the Travers on TV and couldn't believe Espinoza got the lead and didn't float Frosted wide into the CH turn. He should have been in the 3/4 path I thought. I didn't get it and may speak to Espinoza not knowing the track and not riding earlier on the card. Saw some other commenters suggesting track changed later in the card but there wasn't much to go on w Private Zone winning for fun. Thought Espinoza was clueless and thought the track was definitely favoring outside paths.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

Exactly. Keen Ice ran the same race he's been running. He's in the dust again if Pharoah brings his usual game.

Prelim Beyer of 106 for Ice.

He brought his usual game, but this time he was not allowed an easy lead by himself the whole race. He was tested this time.

[cj]

Originally Posted by tzipi

He brought his usual game, but this time he was not allowed an easy lead by himself the whole race. He was tested this time.

Three of his last five wins he didn't even lead until after at least 3/4 mile had been run, let alone be by himself.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by cj

Three of his last five wins he didn't even lead until after at least 3/4 mile had been run, let alone be by himself.

The Preakness and Belmont were easy galloping leads with no one pressing. The Haskell was a walkover sitting off of Optional Claimer, Top Clearance. I'm happy with my bet today.

[rrpic6]

My redboard of the year! I bet against this guy every race!!


08/29 7:49 AM Saratoga Thoroughbred 8 $0.50 P4 (PWHL) 3, 4, 7, 11 / 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 / 2 / 2, 4, 6, 7 $64.00 $2,375.00

08/29 8:09 AM Saratoga Thoroughbred 10 $0.50 P4 (PWHL) 2 / 2, 4, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 4, 7, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 12, 13 $80.00 $1,559.25

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think that's wrong. This was the first nin-perfect trip. He still ran his race. He got beat because of the trip, not because of shipping.

Better trip he wins as usual.

A :26.3 finish off a :48.1 half mile while saving ground the whole way is a "losing" trip? You'll have to explain that to me.

[Stillriledup]

The surface of this track was more demanding, so, why wasnt the horse stabled there for the past few weeks getting used to it? Also, they could have saved shipping the horse via aeroplane. I wont even mention the jockey and his lack of spa riding experience as well as not having one mount on the undercard.