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11-24-2023, 06:08 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 80
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'Show' Betting
A friend of mine wants to know if he can almost guarantee when betting in the 'show' pool, if the 'show' horse will pay $3.00 or more? I told him it depends on what the horse is paying to win. Am I correct or are there other factors to be considered? Thanks in advance.
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11-24-2023, 07:08 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Posts: 396
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The show price of every horse that finishes 3rd or better is a function of how much is wagered to show on each of those horses. What each of their odds to win are can give you a clue that may often get you in the ballpark but, at the end of the day, it's a function of what is bet on each horse to show that finishes 1,2, or 3.
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11-24-2023, 07:43 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,655
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Are you looking for a guideline such as
horse has less than 15% show pool AND 2 largest show pool horses have a combined pool total of less than 60% of pool ?
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11-24-2023, 08:43 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,543
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In theory he can calculate a minimum payoff however in practice there is no guarantee of anything payoff-wise because most of the money will be invisible until after he's forced to make the bet and the race will already be in progress. I wish him luck but at the present time place and show are usually poor betting options. It's yet another big reason why they need to introduce some match up bets so people have a solid high-percentage betting option that pays out at say -115 (slightly less than even money fixed odds) at a 50/50 strike rate which is more like the NFL and other sports-type bets. Place and show do offer the strike rate many players crave but with the payoffs amounting to guesswork and also with breakage ending up being a larger percentage of the return inevitably it's almost sure to consistently come back 'short'. On big days like Derby day for example there may be enough 'stability' in the pool to do it reliably. If he's dead set to try it that would be my suggestion is track how much money comes in after he has to bet at the various tracks, note the amount the percentages change. If he can find a track or scenario where things don't change all that much then calculating a minimum show return becomes viable.
Last edited by MJC922; 11-24-2023 at 08:57 AM.
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11-24-2023, 08:56 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 80
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'Show' Betting
Yes, a betting guideline would help a lot. Thank you. davew
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11-24-2023, 09:26 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,543
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The chapter in Betting Thoroughbreds by Davidowitz comes to mind "La Prevoyante to Win, My Wife to Place."
The big difference is that was before simulcasting even existed. These days I suspect you'll see huge variance in minimum payoffs before the race closes relative to the final pool. Could be tracked easily enough with copy/paste into a spreadsheet using Amwager for example.
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11-24-2023, 11:04 AM
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#7
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Handicapping Service
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Las Vegas nv
Posts: 927
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Simple fact if any of your picks in the show pool have 10% or less he or she will pay better then $3.00 use twinspires pool
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11-24-2023, 12:05 PM
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#8
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks
Simple fact if any of your picks in the show pool have 10% or less he or she will pay better then $3.00 use twinspires pool
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As someone who uses place or show bets as insurance for my Trifecta/Superfecta bets, I assure you a horse with 15% of the show pool will give you at least $3.00 return virtually all the time. Very, very, very rare when it doesn't, even when the top two favorites also show.
Net pool pricing is a show bettor's best friend, if he's not betting on the favorites.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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11-24-2023, 12:32 PM
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#9
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Handicapping Service
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Las Vegas nv
Posts: 927
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Well guy if you do play the pools then you hit GP today race-1 look at the #5 he only had 6% of the show pool paid $3.20 at 4-1 they knew something about him today 15%-w 13%-p 6%-s all it takes is little work on your side
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11-24-2023, 12:43 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 668
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AT THE RACES PRO has a screen with WIN PLACE SHOW estimated payouts.
(Your results may vary.)
It is about $90 per year and well worth it.
https://htr2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm
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11-24-2023, 02:38 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
Net pool pricing is a show bettor's best friend, if he's not betting on the favorites.
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+1
I'm not sure how many people still don't understand the impact that had on betting favorites to place and show.
A number of years back I found some inefficiencies in the place pool on short priced horse that were netting me nice profits. When they switched over to Net Pool Pricing it knocked 3% off my ROI. That came at the same time my rebate was dropped from 7% to 3%. Between the two things (and ultimately the CRWs) the profits vanished.
On the flip side, you get better place and show payoffs on longer priced horses than you used to.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-24-2023, 03:40 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
+1
I'm not sure how many people still don't understand the impact that had on betting favorites to place and show.
A number of years back I found some inefficiencies in the place pool on short priced horse that were netting me nice profits. When they switched over to Net Pool Pricing it knocked 3% off my ROI. That came at the same time my rebate was dropped from 7% to 3%. Between the two things (and ultimately the CRWs) the profits vanished.
On the flip side, you get better place and show payoffs on longer priced horses than you used to.
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Good info. Until now I had not looked into the impact of it tbh. I was thinking in terms of old school calculations.
Checked out this link:
https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...t-pool-pricing
If I'm understanding correctly this was a minus pool situation where in the old days we'd be looking at $2.10 on the third finisher but with NPP the return is $3.10. That's a massive difference.
Unfortunately for the OP's friend the late money avalanche coming from the four corners of the globe will probably tend to wreak havoc with calculating any sort of reliable minimum payouts.
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11-25-2023, 09:07 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 80
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'Show Betting'
Thanks for the link. MJC922
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11-25-2023, 09:17 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,655
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soflant
A friend of mine wants to know if he can almost guarantee when betting in the 'show' pool, if the 'show' horse will pay $3.00 or more? I told him it depends on what the horse is paying to win. Am I correct or are there other factors to be considered? Thanks in advance.
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You are wrong saying it depends on what the horse is paying to win. There is a strong correlation but they are separate pools.
Other factors to consider are how many horses/entries in the race. Money gets taken out of every pool before return to bettors (in 13-22% range depending on track). Also breakage usually in the .05 or .10 area although some now are .01.
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