Intent

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

One of the hardest things to handicap, but also one the most important factors in handicapping almost any race (at least in my opinion).

Track, distance, layoffs, works, classing up, classing down, new trainer, new jockey, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, shipping, ML, odds dropping/rising etc. etc. etc..

I know we all look for 'intent' of any horse in any given race.

What do you look for as keys outside of being on the backstretch or having some kind of 'inside information' from the connections?

[dilanesp]

My mother bet Intent in the 1952 Santa Anita Handicap. Santa Anita had just started doing film patrol of races, and Intent slammed Miche into the rail at the 3/16th pole en route to a photo finish victory. He got disqualified, which was a very rare thing back then (and almost unheard of in a big stakes race). It happened right in front of my mother, and she was both (1) pissed and (2) knew they would take the number down.

Oh, wait, you weren't talking about that Intent....

[Tom]

That's where they sell the beer....in tents.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

One of the hardest things to handicap, but also one the most important factors in handicapping almost any race (at least in my opinion).

Track, distance, layoffs, works, classing up, classing down, new trainer, new jockey, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, shipping, ML, odds dropping/rising etc. etc. etc..

I know we all look for 'intent' of any horse in any given race.

What do you look for as keys outside of being on the backstretch or having some kind of 'inside information' from the connections?

Once in a blue moon you will see a horse 'prep' at the end of a meet before the circuit(or just the horse) moves on to a more prestigious/higher-purse location.

Other than that, you'll see the lesser half of an uncoupled entry trying to ensure a race goes, or rarely as a rabbit.

Most of the time horses are entered to win. Slow horses on low budgets for sloppy outfits are usually still well intended, it just isn't promising.

Will-pays give you info on how 'live' a horse will be on the tote. It's a little different than standard intent but it can give you hints on insider opinion. If you don't understand the odds behavior, probably shouldn't wager outside of a small action-oriented goals. If you don't understand why your horse is significantly higher odds and/or odds ranking than expected, you definitely shouldn't wager.

few betting coups at major circuits attempted outside of the will-pays. IME the syndicates participate in the doubles and multis although you will find some disagreement. Very rare will you ever see some long shot who is ranked longset in will-pays take a bunch of late cash on purpose.

then there's stuff like scouting the paddock activity... Stall 3 looks rough and stall 7 has three attentive workers Clerk of scales is sometimes a nice acquaintance. Weights of the horses, small talk about who is or who is not in attendance for today's race(trainers, owners)
you can go nuts with all this stuff

[thaskalos]

Check and see if the horse's connections are dressed up fancier than usual.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Check and see if the horse's connections are dressed up fancier than usual.

Ha, I do like the "dolled up" angle.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Check and see if the horse's connections are dressed up fancier than usual.

But before betting check to see if they any other horses on today's card.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

But before betting check to see if they any other horses on today's card.

me: "this is a nice MSW race"
⚖: "yea, xyz looks great"
me: "yea those are top connections..., and the is interesting also? Mr. X can have some live FTS"
⚖: "this is his only entry of the card, but he's not here today. He may be at neighboring circuit"
me: "thank you, that is good info"

[Robert Fischer]

Maybe not the intent of this question, but you guys are also overlooking a big pile of evidence about today's condition, that can often be readily examined in the paddock.

[bisket]

I was going to put this in the other thread about jockey and trainer influence on a wager, but intent is more of a trainer analysis. Sometimes taking into consideration where an owner keeps his barn is important. For instance I'm sure The Travers is more important to Repole than the Preakness. So Pletcher will point to that race and the Preakness wouldn't be as important. Other than that it's how does this race fit into the goals of the barn.

A few 1k wins involved Dickie Small. I wish 2 horses this year followed his method of training lol. I would have been much happier as a bettor if Jena took Arcangelo to her base in Florida after The Belmont. Recent events I wish Senor Buscador returned to Remington after his races. That's the difference between 8 to 1 and 20 to 1. Dickie did a great job with Broad Brush and if he ships a horse to Arkansas for 1/2 million dollar race that catches my eye. Concern in the Ark Derby... 1K exacta
https://youtu.be/0CfSJn3tI8M?si=rO1xnm0Yr0-HJB9o

Bettors caught up to Dickie in the Classic after he shipped in for the the race from MD and Concern went off 8 to 1.

The other Dickie longshot was a little less straight forward. Dickie took Richards Kid to Louisiana as a 3 year old and that didn't go that well. A year later Richards Kid shows up in California with Bob Baffert. He's running in the Pac Classic off two races, one of which was on turf. I was kinda scratching my head on that one, but thought maybe it was the only race available to get him ready for Pac Classic. He made a good showing in each race, and I know if Dickie took the time to ship him to Louisiana for as a 3 year old he liked him. I can't remember if it was the tri or the exacta, but it was 1k hit. That wager I posted here before the race so it might be researched. Sadly the reason Richerds Kid was purchased by the Arabs and shipped to California that was the end of Fitzhue and Dickie Small.

https://youtu.be/cBb8XGZSb7g?si=Qva5Jp-6xDMa9nO9

[Robert Fischer]

color... texture... consistency... thickness... even odor (if you can lean in at your paddock)...

a horse's coat is very important!

[Robert Fischer]

here's one that may well have NOT been intent, but still got flagged on film review.

top picture is Belmont 5/30 NY-Bred MSW $70k 10/1ml sent off 5.10/1 - appeared to have some options to be aggressive and not utilize those options, either way found himself boxed in late (I mean, had late flow and could have smashed non-contenders out of the way to bust loose for a 4th or so, but that wasn't legal then)...
Nobody respected is going to come out and say the intent wasn't focused there, but it's one you flag when you watch the films.
You have to click the top video and follow the #2 horse with your eyes.


bottom picture same class and at Saratoga for $80k more notoriety and action winning and breaking a maiden Saratoga
another pretty good flow, but this time had position and won decisively.
TLG had on top for his talking horses show and plenty of players used him.
ML 9/2 went off 2.8/1 as post time favorite.
Only paid $7.60 to win and ex was $20...

whether intent or just a 'trip' it's still good to get $7.60 on a $5 horse, but it's not like this was noteworthy enough to re-post.

yet i did it anyway. life is short and I didn't feel like researching beyond a film i had handy of a flagged intent example. have to deal with what you get for free

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-29-2023 at 05:55 PM.

[HKHandicapper]

There's a trainer I follow closely in Melbourne, and if he sits in a particular stand at Flemington I know his horses have no chance of winning.

So often I wait to see if he is sitting there before I wager.

I find the best signal of intent to be jockey engagement.

[HKHandicapper]

And betting moves.

[Robert Fischer]

There's a 1,000 tricks in this game!

and some of them happen to work some of the time.

There's maybe 9 or so significant things happening here, and maybe 3 or so apply to a given race.

Learn those fundamentals, understand the game, understand gambling and perception in the limits and sense of a vice. It can be a pretty good game.