Quote:
Originally Posted by Handiman
While I have been practicing handicapping for over 40 years off and on... there seems to be one thing that I struggle with most. And that is spotting a false favorite. I really would like some input here from anybody that would have a diamond or two to share concerning this aspect of the game. I'm not looking for anyone's complete handicapping process, I have a pretty decent one my self, other than this bugaboo.
So thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom regarding this subject.
Handi
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Some "false favorite" profiles that might make one scrutinize a bit closer:
1) an odds-on choice in a maiden claimer (unless it is dropping from directly from maiden special weights)
2) a horse dropping in claiming price off a good performance (ITM or beaten less than 3 lengths); especially with spotty worktab
3) 3yos versus older before the fall, unless it's at a maiden race
4) a maiden breaker facing winners for the first time in optional allowance company where some of the claiming types own multiple career wins; especially if said favorite is a 3yo vs. elder
5) a winner last out in conditioned claiming company (nw2x, etc) moving into open claiming company
6) a true sprinter versus accomplished route horses in an extended sprint (i.e., 6.5f-7f)