Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
Great races both days at Epsom. The first post on Friday is 9:00am EST.
I believe the best racehorse in the world, Cracksman, races Friday in race 3. I will post selections for both days on this thread.
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Hunting for longshots, especially with soft ground a possibility:
Coronation Cup:
Cracksman is on a tear, but has yet to win a Group 1 over 12 furlongs, failing in both the Epsom and Irish Derbies last year. He took down 12 furlong preps for the St. Leger and Arc respectively, but beat short fields of only 3yos most of whom he had already outclassed in the aforementioned Classics. Bottom line: suspect at the distance in Group 1 company, however, this is hardly the toughest Group 1 ever assembled.
Hawkbill is another who has won at 12 furlongs in lesser company, but not been consistent at the Group 1 level. He has handled soft ground last year, but curiously couldn't stand up on it in 2016, though he's a better horse now. Half to underachiever and Belmont Stakes possible Free Drop Billy.
Longshot =
Windstoss at over 30/1
This is last year's German Derby winner. He handles 12 furlongs and improves immensely on soft ground. He also likes to take in a prep race before firing off his best, as he tends to show speed off the bench but sits at the back of the pack when in to win. Well, he got his prep early this month in a German Group 2, setting the early pace before staying along for a minor award. He'll be sharper here. Stepping up, but a couple of Godolphin runners that were within a few lengths of Cracksman at Epsom tried Windstoss last year and couldn't hang with him. Not out of reach if Cracksman can't stay.
Epsom Oaks:
Seems like an evenly matched field with no standout. With the soft ground in mind, the longshot look goes to
Bye Bye Baby at around 8-1. She handles soft ground, taking a Group 3 wire-to-wire in her last start. Even tested colts on soft ground over 7 furlongs as a juvenile, placing behind stablemate Kenya, who currently serves as a Coolmore pacemaker. Her mother is Remember When who, although a maiden, nearly reeled in 2 Classics, missing in a blanket finish in the Irish 1000 Guineas and then running a sharp 2nd in this very race a few years ago.
Epsom Derby:
Much has been made of Saxon Warrior's speed, which garnered him the 2000 Guineas and now makes him a Triple Crown threat, but perhaps that handiness will find him out over 12 furlongs. He has had to battle to earn his big wins (2000 Guineas, Racing Post Trophy). He has won on soft ground, though.
Second favorite Roaring Lion has the same concerns, as his granddam is the Californian, Cambiocorsa, a specialist over the down-the-hill 6.5 furlong turf course at Santa Anita. He failed in both the 2000 Guineas and his seasonal debut, but shocked last out when stretching out. Third favorite Hazapour won well last time, but was hardly dominant and he's by Shamardal, a Giant's Causeway sire that seems better suited to 10 furlongs or less.
Two longshots worth a look here are
Masar and
Delano Roosevelt.
Masar also hails from the 2000 Guineas camp, but he's sired by New Approach, a speedy colt who was able to stretch his speed to win the Epsom Derby. Masar was yet another also-ran from the great Mendelssohn's BC Juvenile Turf, however he was absolutely brutalized throughout the first 6 furlongs, steadied, stuck between horses, and shuffled backed to last before ripping off down the stretch under a hand ride to get by the bulk of the field. Useless on the Meydan dirt, but absolutely humiliated Roaring Lion in his Guineas prep, then ran away from him in the final furlong of the 2000 Guineas itself, when running a good 3rd behind Saxon Warrior. A tall order, but he's forgotten in the betting at 16/1 even though his form at 8 furlongs fits with the two favorites.
Delano Roosevelt is a big lumbery Galileo colt, but he handles off turf and has finished well in his last couple of starts. He owns just a maiden win, but so did last year's winner Wings of Eagles, so maybe he can save the day at 12/1 for Coolmore if Saxon Warrior doesn't show up.
