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Old 06-03-2018, 03:15 AM   #16
MadVindication
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LOL - That would be my doing.

The Reynolds Number, Modeling and Osborne Reynolds
In my research I came across the work of Osborne Reynolds, a 19th century English physicist and engineer whose area of interest was “turbulence” (fluid mechanics).

In 1883 Reynolds, by experimenting with pipes of varying sizes, was able to come up with a number, (now known as the “Reynolds number”) that tells engineers when a fluid system will reach turbulence.

And you applied this to horse racing? How? That is really creative.
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Old 06-03-2018, 08:22 AM   #17
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In 1883 Reynolds, by experimenting with pipes of varying sizes, was able to come up with a number, (now known as the “Reynolds number”) that tells engineers when a fluid system will reach turbulence.
I can tell you that my top Reynolds number is when I have Mexican food the night before...

Anyway, Glad you chimed in Dave....

being a top computer guy, how would/do you handle false favorites using software?

Thxs

Mike
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Old 06-03-2018, 10:50 AM   #18
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I can tell you that my top Reynolds number is when I have Mexican food the night before...

Anyway, Glad you chimed in Dave....

being a top computer guy, how would/do you handle false favorites using software?

Thxs

Mike
That's a broad question. One that demands a workshop.

Oh, wait... I did one of those.

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Old 06-03-2018, 10:57 AM   #19
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LOL.....
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Old 06-03-2018, 12:53 PM   #20
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Today's Tip Sheet Updated w/ Early Scratches

"And what is dominant/orderly/chaotic? I assume chaotic is a race where the pace is really unpredictable?"

I'll try and answer when I have more time....

BOL!
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Old 06-03-2018, 01:20 PM   #21
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I would take a shot at this and say that the "MODEL" ing would determine it..

For example:

This would be considered "orderly"


As you can see ...Odds fall in line Top to Bottom (low to high) and the model shows accordingly ( 1's are best & 4's are worse)

The others you can figure yourself...

Mike

Hope I right

BETA...glad your onboard at PaceAdvantage

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Last edited by mikesal57; 06-03-2018 at 01:22 PM.
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Old 06-03-2018, 02:29 PM   #22
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Race Types as shown in Column C

Type A = Dominant = An algorithm to discern the ease in which the public can determine the race favorite.

Type B = Orderly = Slightly more difficult race dynamics.

Type C = Chaos = The most difficult “mix” for the public landing on the race winner.

Based on two years of data ending Jan 2018, reference the corresponding win% on the attachment.

Hope this helps!
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Old 06-03-2018, 02:35 PM   #23
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what is GMB RUIN?
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Old 06-03-2018, 05:14 PM   #24
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Gambler’s Ruin

GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.

If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))

Note: LN returns the natural logarithm or a number
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Old 06-03-2018, 05:26 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by BETA View Post
GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.

If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))

Note: LN returns the natural logarithm or a number
RUIN????

Think most people here are past that

thxs jack

Mike
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Old 06-03-2018, 06:13 PM   #26
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Jack...

Followed your selections at Belmont...

I too am a value player......so, staying away from the obvious favorites ..
I had a good day topped off with the 9th's $13 horse...

Keep up the good work..


Mike
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Old 06-03-2018, 07:07 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BETA View Post
GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.

If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))

Note: LN returns the natural logarithm or a number
Actually, that assumes an even-money payoff.

Years ago I recorded a podcast about Gambler's Ruin.

If you would prefer, here is a link to the transcription of that podcast.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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