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06-03-2018, 03:15 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
LOL - That would be my doing.
The Reynolds Number, Modeling and Osborne Reynolds
In my research I came across the work of Osborne Reynolds, a 19th century English physicist and engineer whose area of interest was “turbulence” (fluid mechanics).
In 1883 Reynolds, by experimenting with pipes of varying sizes, was able to come up with a number, (now known as the “Reynolds number”) that tells engineers when a fluid system will reach turbulence.
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And you applied this to horse racing? How? That is really creative.
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06-03-2018, 08:22 AM
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#17
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
In 1883 Reynolds, by experimenting with pipes of varying sizes, was able to come up with a number, (now known as the “Reynolds number”) that tells engineers when a fluid system will reach turbulence.
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I can tell you that my top Reynolds number is when I have Mexican food the night before...
Anyway, Glad you chimed in Dave....
being a top computer guy, how would/do you handle false favorites using software?
Thxs
Mike
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06-03-2018, 10:50 AM
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#18
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
I can tell you that my top Reynolds number is when I have Mexican food the night before...
Anyway, Glad you chimed in Dave....
being a top computer guy, how would/do you handle false favorites using software?
Thxs
Mike
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That's a broad question. One that demands a workshop.
Oh, wait... I did one of those.
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06-03-2018, 10:57 AM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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LOL.....
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06-03-2018, 12:53 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 45
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Today's Tip Sheet Updated w/ Early Scratches
"And what is dominant/orderly/chaotic? I assume chaotic is a race where the pace is really unpredictable?"
I'll try and answer when I have more time....
BOL!
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06-03-2018, 01:20 PM
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#21
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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I would take a shot at this and say that the "MODEL" ing would determine it..
For example:
This would be considered "orderly"
As you can see ...Odds fall in line Top to Bottom (low to high) and the model shows accordingly ( 1's are best & 4's are worse)
The others you can figure yourself...
Mike
Hope I right
BETA...glad your onboard at PaceAdvantage
Last edited by mikesal57; 06-03-2018 at 01:22 PM.
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06-03-2018, 02:29 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 45
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Race Types as shown in Column C
Type A = Dominant = An algorithm to discern the ease in which the public can determine the race favorite.
Type B = Orderly = Slightly more difficult race dynamics.
Type C = Chaos = The most difficult “mix” for the public landing on the race winner.
Based on two years of data ending Jan 2018, reference the corresponding win% on the attachment.
Hope this helps!
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06-03-2018, 02:35 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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what is GMB RUIN?
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06-03-2018, 05:14 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 45
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Gambler’s Ruin
GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.
If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))
Note: LN returns the natural logarithm or a number
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06-03-2018, 05:26 PM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BETA
GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.
If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))
Note: LN returns the natural logarithm or a number
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RUIN????
Think most people here are past that
thxs jack
Mike
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06-03-2018, 06:13 PM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Jack...
Followed your selections at Belmont...
I too am a value player......so, staying away from the obvious favorites ..
I had a good day topped off with the 9th's $13 horse...
Keep up the good work..
Mike
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06-03-2018, 07:07 PM
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#27
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BETA
GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.
If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))
Note: LN returns the natural logarithm or a number
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Actually, that assumes an even-money payoff.
Years ago I recorded a podcast about Gambler's Ruin.
If you would prefer, here is a link to the transcription of that podcast.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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