Fly in the Ointment

[Handiman]

While I have been practicing handicapping for over 40 years off and on... there seems to be one thing that I struggle with most. And that is spotting a false favorite. I really would like some input here from anybody that would have a diamond or two to share concerning this aspect of the game. I'm not looking for anyone's complete handicapping process, I have a pretty decent one my self, other than this bugaboo.

So thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom regarding this subject.

Handi

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Handiman

While I have been practicing handicapping for over 40 years off and on... there seems to be one thing that I struggle with most. And that is spotting a false favorite. I really would like some input here from anybody that would have a diamond or two to share concerning this aspect of the game. I'm not looking for anyone's complete handicapping process, I have a pretty decent one my self, other than this bugaboo.

So thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom regarding this subject.

Handi

Some "false favorite" profiles that might make one scrutinize a bit closer:

1) an odds-on choice in a maiden claimer (unless it is dropping from directly from maiden special weights)

2) a horse dropping in claiming price off a good performance (ITM or beaten less than 3 lengths); especially with spotty worktab

3) 3yos versus older before the fall, unless it's at a maiden race

4) a maiden breaker facing winners for the first time in optional allowance company where some of the claiming types own multiple career wins; especially if said favorite is a 3yo vs. elder

5) a winner last out in conditioned claiming company (nw2x, etc) moving into open claiming company

6) a true sprinter versus accomplished route horses in an extended sprint (i.e., 6.5f-7f)

[thaskalos]

No matter what rating method the handicapper uses in order to put the horses of a given race into some sort of ranking order...whenever the race favorite does not rate the top spot in such a method, then the horse is a "false favorite"...IMO.

[Denny]

It could be false, or just a bad favorite.

A horse that hardly ever Wins.

[michiken]

1. Look at the ENTIRE fields last race.

See if the favorite is completely off form i.e. an early runner who faded badly.

Is the horse being bet based on old figures? reputation? jockey? trainer?

2. Bet against a horse who just broke his maiden when popping a good speed fig and when trying NW/2 for the first time.

Did the horse horse beat a nothing field? Was it a $5000 maiden claimer?

(Yes you may have to go back and cap the prior race).

3. Look at how the favorite ranks in bris late pace or final fraction against the entire field.

Look at the pdf chart I added and see how Arrogate ranked in late pace in last years BC. This chart is sorted by the "Lp" column. (These were based on last 2 most recent pacelines).

4. Look at how the favorite ranks in turn time (pace pressure) versus the entire field.

5. Bet against horses that have been stuck at the same class level i.e, a horse stuck in non winners of 3 lifetime.


Ken

[Denny]

Micheken,

Diversify would have qualified on more than one of your factors this Monday at Belmont. Number 1 & 3 off his last race.

He won. (Even if it was close, still counts, still paid off)

[lefty359]

What we deem false favs do sometimes win. But you should not let that discourage you. Keep betting against them!