2020 US Presidential election odds

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.64
Trump 2.90

Trump on the drift again

Allan

[mountainman]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer;2631707]/QUOTE]

There was once a smug, know it all troll here who dubbed himself "Big Mack."

Mack thought Romney would beat Obama. I thought otherwise. We bet 500. Several days after the election, "Big" Mack left the forum. Trolls have no character or integrity. Had I lost, I would have paid. And congratulated him on being right.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mountainman

There was once a smug, know it all troll here who dubbed himself "Big Mack."

Mack thought Romney would beat Obama. I thought otherwise. We bet 500. Several days after the election, "Big" Mack left the forum. Trolls have no character or integrity. Had I lost, I would have paid. And congratulated him on being right.

No fair. Should've paid you off if you guys called it a bet. I'm sure if the $500 would've broken him or something that you would have called it a truce.

+ Sorry if I came across as smug or a troll. Wasn't my intention.

I definitely don't want to bet you on Trump, although one day maybe we'll do friendly round of golf or something.

Anyway, that post is the gist of my silly conspiracy theory regarding 2-term presidents during trying times. When the country is going through something major, unless a health issue or a huge social movement occurs, my little conspiracy theory is that the president is secure for a 2nd term. We all have our irrational thoughts, and it's more a 'gut feeling' than something I believe is certain. Probably shouldn't have posted. More TMI; -I went to bed very early last night and don't have much memory of posting that. Hey, could have been a lot more crazy/embarrassing.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

+ Sorry if I came across as smug or a troll. Wasn't my intention.

Don't be ridiculous. Your decency and lack of ego is MORE than apparent in your posts.

[JustRalph]

I thought PA killed that wager prior to the election?

[lamboguy]

i was at a hotel in Miami one year they had the superbowl there. it was the Bengals vs. 49'rs. the line of the game was 49'rs by 6.

i am at the bar in the hotel Alexander. i am drinking cocktails with a guy from Cincinatti. the guy says he wants to get down on the game. he winds up betting me $10,000 on the Bengals with no points. i ask the bartender if he would hold the money and he said he would. the guys says he will meet me at the bar the next day at 5:00. he shows up with the money and we both put it up with the bartender.

this is the way you handle wagers with people you don't know. you have to find someone that will do this for you. the only thing that could go wrong is if the bartender takes off with the money.

but i knew the bartender for 5 years and had no problem with it.

the only other instance i had like that was when Marvin Hagler had his tittle defense in Boston Garden. i found out that there was a large contingency of Venezuelans staying at the Lennox hotel that traveled there with the challenger. his name was Fulgencio Obelmejeus.

i called a friend that a partner that owned the hotel. i met him in the lobby of the hotel and told him what i was going to do. he went to the security and told them to let me do my thing gathering wagers. i was there for 3 hours and took in lots of bets. one guy wanted to bet $5000 with travelors checks. i told him i don't take checks. these people from Venezuela were all in the oil business at the time (whatever happened to that country?) we put up the money at the front desk of the hotel and it went into the safe. i hired 2 boston cops to guard the safe until after the fight. the venezuelans went to the fight and i stayed in the lobby. Hagler knocked the guy out in the first few rounds!

[lamboguy]

no change in the total election

Republicans getting stronger in key states of Georgia, Iowa, Ohio.

also strength coming in for Republicans in Kansas, Missouri, Montana and Oklahoma in a big way.

those numbers may help the republicans hold control of the senate, especially in Georgia, Iowa, Montana where the democratic candidates are favored.

[Marshall Bennett]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

no change in the total election

Republicans getting stronger in key states of Georgia, Iowa, Ohio.

also strength coming in for Republicans in Kansas, Missouri, Montana and Oklahoma in a big way.

those numbers may help the republicans hold control of the senate, especially in Georgia, Iowa, Montana where the democratic candidates are favored.

What are the odds of Hillary having Joe whacked so that a reasonable candidate can contend?

[lamboguy]

2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
111 Republican wins Presidential Election +155
112 Democrat wins Presidential Election -175
113 Republican wins Presidential Election +156
114 Field wins Presidential Election -176
115 Democrat wins Presidential Election -174
116 Field wins Presidential Election +154
117 Libertarian wins Presidential Election +38000
118 Field wins Presidential Election -76000
119 Green wins Presidential Election +42500
120 Field wins Presidential Election -85000
121 Republican/Democrat wins Election -45000
122 Libertarian/Green wins Election +15000
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
131 Joe Biden wins Popular Vote -550
132 Donald Trump wins Popular Vote +425
133 Biden wins Elections & Popular Vote -165
134 Any other result +125
135 Biden loses Elections & Popular Vote +550
136 Any other result -1050
137 Biden wins Elections loses Popular Vote +1000
138 Any other result -2000
139 Biden loses Elections wins Popular Vote +185
140 Any other result -265
2020 US Election - House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
351 House Seats won by DEMS less than 209 +1000
352 Any other result -2000
351 House Seats won by DEMS 210-213 +1800
352 Any other result -5400
353 House Seats won by DEMS 214-217 +1700
354 Any other result -5100
355 House Seats won by DEMS 218-221 +1600
356 Any other result -4800
357 House Seats won by DEMS 222-225 +1400
358 Any other result -3600
359 House Seats won by DEMS 226-229 +1200
360 Any other result -2600
361 House Seats won by DEMS 230-233 +700
362 Any other result -1500
363 House Seats won by DEMS 234-237 +500
364 Any other result -900
365 House Seats won by DEMS 238-241 +500
366 Any other result -900
367 House Seats won by DEMS 242-245 +400
368 Any other result -600
369 House Seats won by DEMS 246 or more +240
370 Any other result -320
United States Congress - Control of Senate & House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
381 DEM control House REP control Senate +190
382 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -270
383 Democrats control House & Senate -145
384 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 +105
385 Republican control House & Senate +420
386 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -650
387 REP control House DEM control Senate +4000
388 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -16000
United States Congress - Majority Control of Senate - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
391 Democratic Senators in 117th Congress -155
392 Republican Senators in 117th Congress +115
United States Congress - Majority Control of The House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
393 DEM Representatives in 117th Congress -600
394 REP Representatives in 117th Congress +400
2020 US Presidential Election - Democratic Party Sweep - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
395 DEMS win Election + Senate + Lower House -165
396 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 +125
Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
451 Kamala Harris is Democratic VP Nominee +125
452 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -145
453 Susan Rice is Democratic VP Nominee +255
454 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -310
455 Tammy Duckworth is Democratic VP Nominee +525
456 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -750
457 E.Warren is Democratic VP Nominee +900
458 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -1375
459 Val Demings is Democratic VP Nominee +885
460 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -1350
461 Lujan Grishman is Democratic VP Nominee +4000
462 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -10000
463 Stacey Abrams is Democratic VP Nominee +5000
464 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -12500
465 Hillary Clinton is Democratic VP Nominee +5000
466 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -12500
467 G.Whitmer is Democratic VP Nominee +7500
468 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -20000
469 Tammy Baldwin is Democratic VP Nominee +10000
470 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -30000
471 K.Lance Bottoms is Democratic VP Nominee +3000
472 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -7000
473 Karen Bass is Democratic VP Nominee +2000
474 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -4000
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama -2600
502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama +1200
503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska -750
504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska +450
505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona +145
506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona -185
507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas -1050
508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas +550
509 Republican Nominee wins California +2000
510 Democratic Nominee wins California -6000
511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado +650
512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado -1350
513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut +850
514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut -1750
515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware +850
516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware -1750
517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia +5000
518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia -20000
519 Republican Nominee wins Florida +120
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -160
521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia -185
522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia +145
523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii +3000
524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii -11000
525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho -4800
526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho +1600
527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois +1300
528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois -3000
529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana -1200
530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana +600
531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa -195
532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa +155
533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas -1500
534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas +700
535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky -2000
536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky +1000
537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana -2000
538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana +1000
539 Republican Nominee wins Maine +350
540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine -530
541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland +1400
542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland -3600
543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts +1400
544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts -3600
545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan +220
546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan -300
547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +260
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -380
549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi -2600
550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi +1200
551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri -900
552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri +500
553 Republican Nominee wins Montana -1050
554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana +550
555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska -2600
556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska +1200
557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada +400
558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada -600
559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire +240
560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire -320
561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey +900
562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey -1850
563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico +500
564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico -900
565 Republican Nominee wins New York +1450
566 Democratic Nominee wins New York -4050
567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina +105
568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina -145
569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota -3600
570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota +1400
571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio -175
572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio +135
573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma -4800
574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma +1600
575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon +1050
576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon -2150
577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania +245
578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania -335
579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island +900
580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island -1850
581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina -1200
582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina +600
583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota -2600
584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota +1200
585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee -2300
586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee +1100
587 Republican Nominee wins Texas -260
588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas +180
589 Republican Nominee wins Utah -975
590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah +525
591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont +1300
592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont -3000
593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia +550
594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia -1050
595 Republican Nominee wins Washington +1050
596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington -2150
597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia -2600
598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia +1200
599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin +185
600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin -265
601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming -5100
602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming +1700
2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
101 Joe Biden wins Presidential Election -175
102 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election +155
123 Kanye West wins Presidential Election +10000
124 Field wins Presidential Election -999999
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral College Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
201 Trump wins by 280+ electoral votes +550
202 Any other result -1050
203 Trump wins by 210-279 electoral votes +1500
204 Any other result -4500
205 Trump wins by 150-209 electoral votes +1200
206 Any other result -2600
207 Trump wins by 100-149 electoral votes +1000
208 Any other result -2000
209 Trump wins by 60-99 electoral votes +700
210 Any other result -1500
211 Trump wins by 30-59 electoral votes +750
212 Any other result -1580
213 Trump wins by 10-29 electoral votes +950
214 Any other result -1950
215 Trump wins by 1-9 electoral votes +1100
216 Any other result -2300
217 Electoral College tied 269-269 +4000
218 Electoral College not tied 269-269 -16000
219 J.Biden wins by 280+ electoral votes +375
220 Any other result -565
221 J.Biden wins by 210-279 electoral votes +485
222 Any other result -855
223 J.Biden wins by 150-209 electoral votes +450
224 Any other result -750
225 J.Biden wins by 100-149 electoral votes +420
226 Any other result -650
227 J.Biden wins by 60-99 electoral votes +950
228 Any other result -1950
229 J.Biden wins by 30-59 electoral votes +1800
230 Any other result -5400
231 J.Biden wins by 10-29 electoral votes +2300
232 Any other result -6900
233 J.Biden wins by 1-9 electoral votes +2500
234 Any other result -7500
2020 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
251 Trump wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +2500
252 Any other result -7500
253 Trump wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +2500
254 Any other result -7500
255 Trump wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +2500
256 Any other result -7500
257 Trump wins popular vote by 6% - 7.49% +2500
258 Any other result -7500
259 Trump wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +2300
260 Any other result -6900
261 Trump wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +2300
262 Any other result -6900
263 Trump wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +1800
264 Any other result -5400
265 Trump wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +1600
266 Any other result -4800
267 Biden wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +330
268 Any other result -490
269 Biden wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +400
270 Any other result -600
271 Biden wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +500
272 Any other result -900
273 Biden wins popular vote by 6.00% - 7.49% +400
274 Any other result -600
275 Biden wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +575
276 Any other result -1125
277 Biden wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +700
278 Any other result -1500
279 Biden wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +1000
280 Any other result -2000
281 Biden wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +1265
282 Any other result -2835
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
901 Trump wins every state he won in 2016 +465
902 Trump loses a state he won in 2016 -795
903 Trump loses every state he lost in 2016 -245
904 Trump wins a state he lost in 2016 +175
905 Winner of pop vote wins elect college -215
906 Winner of pop vote loses elect college +165

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett

What are the odds of Hillary having Joe whacked so that a reasonable candidate can contend?

Zero Chance, first you have to look at how they pull it off without a paper trail. The answer to that complex question is "central bank", so exactly who is stuffing the safety deposit box that facilitates Clintonization? George Soros owned Obama/Biden and all of that administration's policy. Hiding Biden policy positions are in alignment with George Soros and all of his policy groups. Although it can be said the Clinton's might not like Hiding Joe Biden, control of how it is done and facilitated is key. So a reasonable candidate is not be under consideration by the puppet masters.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

my little conspiracy theory is that the president is secure for a 2nd term.

Incumbents always have an edge, regardless of what is going on.
It's actually not a conspiracy theory.

Only 2 POTUS of more modern history I can think of who didn't win a 2nd term was Carter and George H. W. Bush

You'd have to go all the way back to 1933 to find another incumbent who lost!!.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Incumbents always have an edge, regardless of what is going on.
It's actually not a conspiracy theory.

Only 2 POTUS of more modern history I can think of who didn't win a 2nd term was Carter and George H. W. Bush

You'd have to go all the way back to 1933 to find another incumbent who lost!!.

Both lost with approval ratings below 50%. Kinda relevant. Prescient?
We will find out in under 110 days.

Presidential Job Approval Related to Reelection Historically
https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/...torically.aspx

[Marshall Bennett]

Originally Posted by hcap

Both lost with approval ratings below 50%. Kinda relevant. Prescient?
We will find out in under 110 days.

Since 1892 only Jimmy Carter, GHWB, and Herbert Hoover failed in getting re-elected. They weren't running against a candidate with symptoms of Alzheimer's as Trump will be.

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.62
Trump 2.90

Market is stable once again

Allan

[Actor]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Incumbents always have an edge, regardless of what is going on.
It's actually not a conspiracy theory.

Only 2 POTUS of more modern history I can think of who didn't win a 2nd term was Carter and George H. W. Bush

You'd have to go all the way back to 1933 to find another incumbent who lost!!.

What about Ford?

The definition of "incumbent" is one who holds the position. Ford held the position.