Time for Contraction

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Live poker in Southern California is alive and well. Commerce has at least 75 cash tables going every night, plus tournaments. Hustler has 40, the Bike 30, Hollywood 15, and Hawaiian Gardens 50. San Manuel Indian casino has another 25 and Oceans Eleven another 10 or 15.

There's no doubt that if there were across-the-board national legalization of online poker, there would be another poker boom, but that won't happen. It will have to go state by state, just like interstate simulcasting of horse racing did, and that softens any boom. (There will be a small boom when California legalizes it, however.)

Is the LIVE-poker industry as robust as it seemed during the aftermath of "Black Friday"? Is the decline attributable to the "games getting tougher"...or are the players bored with the much slower pace of the live version of the game?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by traynor

Are the online poker venues elsewhere reasonably honest? I realize that is asking for an opinion, and that is all I am asking for: In your opinion, is online poker a rational activity in other venues (outside the US)? Some good, some bad? Good here, watch out for there?

Online poker was and is a completely rational activity if you are good enough to beat it. The scandals affected a couple of sites and really only a tiny percentage of hands played on those sites. Further, online sites are actually BETTER at detecting certain sorts of shenanigans (such as collusion) than live poker venues are.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Is the LIVE-poker industry as robust as it seemed during the aftermath of "Black Friday"? Is the decline attributable to the "games getting tougher"...or are the players bored with the much slower pace of the live version of the game?

It's up and down, thask, but there's certainly not a downward trend. In fact, three of our cardrooms (Hollywood Park, the Bike, and HG) built major expansions in just the past two years to handle increased demand.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Online poker was and is a completely rational activity if you are good enough to beat it. The scandals affected a couple of sites and really only a tiny percentage of hands played on those sites. Further, online sites are actually BETTER at detecting certain sorts of shenanigans (such as collusion) than live poker venues are.

Thank you for the information. I appreciate it. It seems it might be something to look into when I have a bit more free time.

[ribjig]

Look at these slot machine takeout rates:

NEW YORK – 93.75 percent
NEVADA – 93.54 percent
COLORADO – 92.85 percent
MISSISSIPPI – 92.77 percent
FLORIDA – 92.46 percent
DELAWARE – 92.36 percent
**KENTUCKY– 92.06 percent
*CONNECTICUT – 91.77 percent
NEW JERSEY – 91.41 percent
SOUTH DAKOTA – 91.36 percent
ILLINOIS – 91.00 percent
RHODE ISLAND – 90.88 percent
LOUISIANA – 90.74 percent
INDIANA – 90.71 percent
IOWA – 90.69 percent
MAINE – 90.68 percent
MISSOURI – 90.64 percent
OHIO – 90.34 percent
PENNSYLVANIA – 90.16 percent
WEST VIRGINIA – 89.72 percent

Source: Slot Payouts at Casinos Around the Country | NBC Connecticut http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/troubl...#ixzz4Yi5dU6WW

Slot machines are humming 24/7/364;
Imagine a US nationwide horse race takeout of 7%...
Betting would surge at all tracks, well beyond
what is needed to recoup $$$ for overhead,
purses, profit, etc.

ALL major & moderate tracks would have $1M race EVERY week, IMO,
all minor tracks Grade III level purse weekly...?
No, there won't suddenly be an increase in horse quality,
but there would be HUGE increase in new $$$ & insane
churning of all $$$...

[ReplayRandall]

That horse left the barn a looooonnnngggg time ago.....People would rather drink up and push a button, than have to THINK what/who to play. Overhead and expenses are a lot cheaper too....

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

That horse left the barn a looooonnnngggg time ago.....People would rather drink up and push a button, than have to THINK what/who to play. Overhead and expenses are a lot cheaper too....

Doesn't the sudden interest-rise in Fantasy Sports prove that there are plenty of "younger people" who are willing to think about what/who to play?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Doesn't the sudden interest-rise in Fantasy Sports prove that there are plenty of "younger people" who are willing to think about what/who to play?

True, but that's a different conversation. Sports is "Americana" to all ages, particularly football. Fandom is something that left horse racing decades ago. Combining sports fandom with gambling/fantasy sports, and you have the perfect addictive cocktail...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Doesn't the sudden interest-rise in Fantasy Sports prove that there are plenty of "younger people" who are willing to think about what/who to play?

What I am seeing from the younger generation is Gamers betting illegally. That's where their action is. Video games is the real appeal of the young and even much of my generation.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

True, but that's a different conversation. Sports is "Americana" to all ages, particularly football. Fandom is something that left horse racing decades ago. Combining sports fandom with gambling/fantasy sports, and you have the perfect addictive cocktail...

IMO...the younger generation is hi-tech...and horse racing is "old-school". It makes for a bad match.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the younger generation is hi-tech...and horse racing is "old-school". It makes for a bad match.

I suspect the real problem that horse racing has vis-a-vis other gambling games is the "work to action ratio".

The work to action ratio is the fraction W/(A/C), where "W" is the amount of intellectual effort beyond what you already do in order to place a bet, "A" is the length of time that you enjoy action on your bet, and "C" is the unit cost of one bet.

The lower the work to action ratio, the more attractive and fun the bet is to casual players.

Here are some examples:

Slot machines: W is almost non-existent, just push a button. A is low, you get action only a few seconds, but you get to play again immediately thereafter, which raises it somewhat. But C is very low, less than a dollar and sometimes as low as a penny. So A/C is actually a fairly high number, and the work to action ratio is extremely low.

Sports: W is very low for your typical sports fan, who just relies on their background knowledge of sports. The more popular the sport, the lower W is. A is very high- you get action for a 2 1/2 hour game, or even a full season. C is significant, you usually will bet $100 or more on a game, although lower C's are possible. So the work to action ratio is low due to the low W and the very high A.

Stock market: W is again, fairly low for your typical casual investor, who picks stocks of companies he or she knows. A is very high- you get action until you sell the shares. C is significant, although again, lower C's are possible. Due to low W and high A, the work to action ratio is low.

Lottery: W is almost nothing, just go to the liquor store. A is moderate at best- you basically get action at the moment of the drawing, with perhaps some anticipation. But C is very low, $1 or $2 a pop.

Card games: W is very low for a casual player, who doesn't bother to learn good strategy. A is low, because a hand doesn't play out over a long period, but like with slots, you get another hand immediately thereafter. And C is low for low stakes games.

Horse racing: W is high. You have to learn how to read a racing form, learn the statistics, and learn handicapping methods. You need to learn the sport, and if you don't know it, the curve is steep. A is very low-- a minute and a half, plus whatever joy you get out of anticipating the race. And C, while not gigantic, is not that low for most players

The high W, very low A, and moderate C create a high work to action ratio. It didn't matter when other forms of gambling weren't legal. But now they are, and they are superior to casual players.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I suspect the real problem that horse racing has vis-a-vis other gambling games is the "work to action ratio".

The work to action ratio is the fraction W/(A/C), where "W" is the amount of intellectual effort beyond what you already do in order to place a bet, "A" is the length of time that you enjoy action on your bet, and "C" is the unit cost of one bet.

The lower the work to action ratio, the more attractive and fun the bet is to casual players.

Here are some examples:

Slot machines: W is almost non-existent, just push a button. A is low, you get action only a few seconds, but you get to play again immediately thereafter, which raises it somewhat. But C is very low, less than a dollar and sometimes as low as a penny. So A/C is actually a fairly high number, and the work to action ratio is extremely low.

Sports: W is very low for your typical sports fan, who just relies on their background knowledge of sports. The more popular the sport, the lower W is. A is very high- you get action for a 2 1/2 hour game, or even a full season. C is significant, you usually will bet $100 or more on a game, although lower C's are possible. So the work to action ratio is low due to the low W and the very high A.

Stock market: W is again, fairly low for your typical casual investor, who picks stocks of companies he or she knows. A is very high- you get action until you sell the shares. C is significant, although again, lower C's are possible. Due to low W and high A, the work to action ratio is low.

Lottery: W is almost nothing, just go to the liquor store. A is moderate at best- you basically get action at the moment of the drawing, with perhaps some anticipation. But C is very low, $1 or $2 a pop.

Card games: W is very low for a casual player, who doesn't bother to learn good strategy. A is low, because a hand doesn't play out over a long period, but like with slots, you get another hand immediately thereafter. And C is low for low stakes games.

Horse racing: W is high. You have to learn how to read a racing form, learn the statistics, and learn handicapping methods. You need to learn the sport, and if you don't know it, the curve is steep. A is very low-- a minute and a half, plus whatever joy you get out of anticipating the race. And C, while not gigantic, is not that low for most players

The high W, very low A, and moderate C create a high work to action ratio. It didn't matter when other forms of gambling weren't legal. But now they are, and they are superior to casual players.

Very astute. So what do you do? Lower the C in horseracing to pennies, or $.05 & .10 for win, place and show. Same thing for all exotics? If I was the Czar of racing, I'd be hiring young ex-Google/Apple/Gamer techies to see how they'd attract a younger crowd. How long till it's a virtual game where the race is based on past PP's of famous horses from all ages or imaginary PP's and we bet on the outcome and watch the Hologram horses race around a track?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

How long till it's a virtual game where the race is based on past PP's of famous horses from all ages or imaginary PP's and we bet on the outcome and watch the Hologram horses race around a track?

The late Perry Tunks AKA Robert Goren, had as his signature, the following:

"Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here"."

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

The late Perry Tunks AKA Robert Goren, had as his signature, the following:

"Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here"."

I didn't realize he'd passed. I've read dozens of his postings on here.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I suspect the real problem that horse racing has vis-a-vis other gambling games is the "work to action ratio".

The work to action ratio is the fraction W/(A/C), where "W" is the amount of intellectual effort beyond what you already do in order to place a bet, "A" is the length of time that you enjoy action on your bet, and "C" is the unit cost of one bet.

The lower the work to action ratio, the more attractive and fun the bet is to casual players.

Here are some examples:

Slot machines: W is almost non-existent, just push a button. A is low, you get action only a few seconds, but you get to play again immediately thereafter, which raises it somewhat. But C is very low, less than a dollar and sometimes as low as a penny. So A/C is actually a fairly high number, and the work to action ratio is extremely low.

Sports: W is very low for your typical sports fan, who just relies on their background knowledge of sports. The more popular the sport, the lower W is. A is very high- you get action for a 2 1/2 hour game, or even a full season. C is significant, you usually will bet $100 or more on a game, although lower C's are possible. So the work to action ratio is low due to the low W and the very high A.

Stock market: W is again, fairly low for your typical casual investor, who picks stocks of companies he or she knows. A is very high- you get action until you sell the shares. C is significant, although again, lower C's are possible. Due to low W and high A, the work to action ratio is low.

Lottery: W is almost nothing, just go to the liquor store. A is moderate at best- you basically get action at the moment of the drawing, with perhaps some anticipation. But C is very low, $1 or $2 a pop.

Card games: W is very low for a casual player, who doesn't bother to learn good strategy. A is low, because a hand doesn't play out over a long period, but like with slots, you get another hand immediately thereafter. And C is low for low stakes games.

Horse racing: W is high. You have to learn how to read a racing form, learn the statistics, and learn handicapping methods. You need to learn the sport, and if you don't know it, the curve is steep. A is very low-- a minute and a half, plus whatever joy you get out of anticipating the race. And C, while not gigantic, is not that low for most players

The high W, very low A, and moderate C create a high work to action ratio. It didn't matter when other forms of gambling weren't legal. But now they are, and they are superior to casual players.

It isn't just that the work load in this game is high. The bigger problem, IMO, is that...regardless of how much the horseplayer applies himself in his work...there are still too many races whose results defy any rational explanation that even the most studious horseplayer could conjure up.

In poker...the player can understand that he lost the pot because someone drew out on him on the last card...and in roulette, he can see that he lost because the little ball fell on a different number than the one that he selected. In both these cases...the player lost his bout against the odds...and he can come to terms with that. But in horse racing, the race result often leaves the player with the feeling that some unsavory character just lifted his wallet...and no gambler likes that sort of feeling after a wager.

I can only speak for myself here...but I think horse racing suffers mainly because the vast majority of the gamblers -- young AND old -- don't believe that the game is policed properly given the tarnished reputation that it has rightfully attained through the years. If I were a youngster starting out today...there is no way in the world that this game would have attracted me to the extent that it has.

I have taken more than a few novices to the track in my day...and I have tried to explain the game's nuances to them. I have no trouble explaining why an obvious horse loses a race...but I can never adequately explain why a rank outsider wins impressively...while 8 supposedly faster horses are chasing this "outsider" every step of the way. And, when this unlikely winner has been bet suspiciously at the window...then the novice will head for the door, never to return.

Our game doesn't just BEAT you...it often makes you look like a fool. And that's hard to take.