Mohawk 5 and 6 Dominance

[Oddy5]

At Mohawk there is a huge winning% from the 5 and 6 Post positions and a substancial difference to the next position. So from Friday to today I've been playing $2 to win on the 5 and 6 in every race there.

So far, I've bet $160, returned $294. That gives me an ROI of 83.75%.

Now I think 4 days is a small sample, but considering it's about 40 races, it might be a good sample for now.

I'm wondering what you guys think of this strategy. It takes some guts to try and trust the stats over your knowledge, but so far it has worked.

[Sinner369]

My friend you are a hunch player. Try this for a whole meet and see the results!


Sinner

[Tom]

Like surfing, ride the wave until it breaks.

Be ready to jump off as soon as you see it stopping. Better to miss a few than give it back by riding too long.

[Ray2000]

Oddy5

Thanks for pointing out a strange anomaly that's happening at Mohawk

There is an enormous bias with the 5 and 6 posts both on win percentage and ROI.

This can't last but for the the first 444 races of this year's meet the results are startling.



Pace (includes 1 dead-heat)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
- - - - - - - - - -- --
Starts 298 298 299 299 298 295 286 254 215 140 0
Win 29 26 33 29 56 54 25 23 16 9 0
Win% 9.7 8.7 11.0 9.7 18.8 18.3 8.7 9.1 7.4 6.4

Trot
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
- - - - - - - - - -- --
Starts 144 144 144 144 144 144 143 134 110 70 4
Win 18 7 14 22 27 19 14 8 12 3 0
Win% 12.5 4.9 9.7 15.3 18.8 13.2 9.8 6.0 10.9 4.3 0.0

pp starts wins / 2$bets return ROI
 
1 442 47 /$884.00 $772.80 -13%
2 442 33 /$884.00 $354.90 -60%
3 443 47 /$886.00 $685.80 -23%
4 443 51 /$886.00 $773.40 -13%
5 442 83 /$884.00 $1,206.80 37%
6 439 73 /$878.00 $1,067.90 22%
7 429 39 /$858.00 $557.60 -35%
8 388 31 /$776.00 $696.90 -10%
9 325 28 /$650.00 $263.30 -59%
10 210 12 /$420.00 $318.60 -24%
11 4 0 .../$8.00 $0.00 -100%

The crowd will start to catch on soon.





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[njcurveball]

Originally Posted by Oddy5

I'm wondering what you guys think of this strategy. It takes some guts to try and trust the stats over your knowledge, but so far it has worked.

If you track it further you may also find the low odds horses are under performing from those posts and the longshots are winning much more than coming in second. That is your indicator it is a short term trend.

Kudos to you for picking up on this.

[JBmadera]

my files are a mess but I thought that something similar was going on at the Big M, post 5 and perhaps post 6....botster or ray would probably know

[botster]

Originally Posted by JBmadera

my files are a mess but I thought that something similar was going on at the Big M, post 5 and perhaps post 6....botster or ray would probably know

I am not a numbers guy except only when pertaining to closing odds.Ray does a great job with stats and is the "go guy" for thiis one.

[Ray2000]

Big M dataset

I'm missing a few days and my numbers are for saddle number not always post position.
Also doesn't include posts greater than 10

PP Starts.....Wins....2$ bets....return....ROI
1 1151.....131.....$2,302.....$1,606.....-30%
2 1151.....119.....$2,302.....$1,656.....-28%
3 1151.....113.....$2,302.....$1,474.....-36%
4 1151.....128.....$2,302.....$1,734.....-25%
5 1151.....149.....$2,302.....$2,037.....-12%
6 1147.....135.....$2,294.....$1,697.....-26%
7 1127.....115.....$2,254.....$1,447.....-36%
8 1069.....116.....$2,138.....$1,907.....-11%
9 931.......70.....$1,862.......$910.....-51%
10 615.......63.....$1,230.....$1,019.....-17%



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[Oddy5]

Thats some great data Ray. The BigM doesn't have as big of an advantage by any horse, it's practiacally the same for all post positions.

For the 5,6 plays, I have bet $2 win on each from Thursday June 19th, to Monday June 23rd. I didn't play yesterday because I wasn't around, but it would have returned around $48 for the $40 bet.

For the 5 days I played:
Bet $200, returned $359.30
ROI% = 79.65%

A lot of smaller tracks like to favorite the 1,2 or 1-4, but there isn't as big of a margin to allow the "Mohawk blind play" on post positions. So right now I think I'll keep riding because of the incredible ROI.