Flightline

[Bullet Plane]

I dont know why the Olympiad lost the whitney.
They are animals, they can't tell us
Trainer said he didn't like the heat. But the real test for class is how fast can he run? Well he obtained a 111 beyer figure in the Foster. He broke his maiden at saratoga where the strongest horses compete. And had amassed over 2 million prior to the BC. He is tied with epicenter and rich strike with 7 races this year. He's durable. And last but not least, he beat everybody but flightline in the classic. I think he has done a ton to earn respect.

Looking at this field, epicenter had earned a 112, LIG a 112, and as mentioned olympiad a 111, strong numbers. Very tough group. And im nowhere near convinced LIG is just a miler. Appears to me,, without the flightline presence, he would have blown this field away, albeit wirh a slower pace. Of course , i can't prove that. But it is my opinion. Have a nice day!

[cj]

https://www.drf.com/news/six-furlong...assic-adjusted

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

https://www.drf.com/news/six-furlong...assic-adjusted

I'm going to assume you had something to do with that.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm going to assume you had something to do with that.

The sad thingis that even rates a story.
In a game of racing, timimg is treated as optional/
Major tracks should be embarrassed that a single guy with his own store bought equipment has to video time a multi-million dollar premier race. Tracks should video time every freaking race, every day.

Kudos to CJ for understanding the betting game better than azzholes who run the tracks.

[Michael]

I read the article earlier this evening while I ate my dinner. When I saw the 27 tenths I knew exactly what happened. Great Job CJ

[paulbenny]

I actually volunteered there and prepared some data for a request regarding an old time jockey who was nominated. I stand corrected on the short list comment. Your are right and the same regarding Justify. These horses did not race long enough. True greatness is somewhat subjective but really 6 starts against 33 total other runners handled with kid gloves. I go back to my live in person experience seeing horses like Alysheba who were warriors and tough. This horse is fast but is he tough.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

I actually volunteered there and prepared some data for a request regarding an old time jockey who was nominated. I stand corrected on the short list comment. Your are right and the same regarding Justify. These horses did not race long enough. True greatness is somewhat subjective but really 6 starts against 33 total other runners handled with kid gloves. I go back to my live in person experience seeing horses like Alysheba who were warriors and tough. This horse is fast but is he tough.

IMO tough as it relates to horses is mostly about pace. How much faster of a pace does he need to track under a hold and then engulf before he gets a blessing? At a certain point when something 'tougher' is sitting back there air-gapped in another zip code then I don't think it matters all that much. There isn't a dirt router that comes to my mind over the past 40 years that I can say I'd take against this horse and feel really confident about my chances. In most races he's going to be out front. Sure he can get beat, I'm sure he can throw an off race like anyone else given enough starts but if he runs like his last two races on any kind of regular basis it's a really short list of contenders that would get a sniff at any point. Even then they'll need to fire their 'A' race on top of that. If all of the stars align maybe he gets nailed in the final 1/16th by someone?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by MJC922

IMO tough as it relates to horses is mostly about pace. How much faster of a pace does he need to track under a hold and then engulf before he gets a blessing? At a certain point when something 'tougher' is sitting back there air-gapped in another zip code then I don't think it matters all that much. There isn't a dirt router that comes to my mind over the past 40 years that I can say I'd take against this horse and feel really confident about my chances. In most races he's going to be out front. Sure he can get beat, I'm sure he can throw an off race like anyone else given enough starts but if he runs like his last two races on any kind of regular basis it's a really short list of contenders that would get a sniff at any point. Even then they'll need to fire their 'A' race on top of that. If all of the stars align maybe he gets nailed in the final 1/16th by someone?

Between 1986 and 2008 there's a decent chance Flightline would have won one or two renewals.

He definitely would have handled an over the top Lemon Drop Kid in one of the slowest Woodwards ever (though I can't say he'd handle an in form LDK in the Brooklyn/Suburban/Whitney).

Probably would have also beat Sultry Song.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Between 1986 and 2008 there's a decent chance Flightline would have won one or two renewals.

He definitely would have handled an over the top Lemon Drop Kid in one of the slowest Woodwards ever (though I can't say he'd handle an in form LDK in the Brooklyn/Suburban/Whitney).

Probably would have also beat Sultry Song.

I'm laser focused on his last two races, in particular this last race. I understand before the last race people including myself who wanted to see more from such a lightly raced horse but after chasing that pace in the Classic how would more be thrown at him going forward? Certainly in ten more grade one routes I'd wager that he's unlikely to ever face an early pace any faster than that. If it's any slower he's on the lead, who then do we bet on to run him down and be in any way confident about it? I suspect if he's in front after a half he would widen on some great names by the time they hit the quarter pole and it's going to be tough to run him down after that key point in a race. It would have to be someone that just kept grinding without making headway and then nail him late. At a certain point I have to start trusting the numbers along with my eyes. His early pace figure going into the race was a 13.75, that would have him tracking second off of a horse like Jackie's Warrior in the sprint. He has legitimate sprint speed to track in second or third in any grade one sprint so he'll have no problem with position in a route, it doesn't matter much what the field composition is, it will look a lot like what we just saw i.e. him being first or second after a half every time. I understand people who want to see more but I've seen enough myself, that last race did it for me. His numbers going into the Classic were:

0
3.25
2.5
5.25
8

and the Classic now came up as a 1. Grade one par is 5.5. It's one hell of a line to bet against.

Exiting the classic he's retiring with a NACR rating of 128 or so I believe; the computer is finishing this week's update as I type this.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's worth noting that these retirements are less about "losing their investment because the horse gets injured" (the vast, vast majority of valuable stallions who suffer a racing injury can still go to stud) and more about "losing their investment value because the horse's form tails off and he starts losing races".

I mean, they're still the owners and I get that they want to make money, but we should be clear about what's going on. They want that pristine record.

I disagree. One more year of stud fees for this horse will far outweigh the amount of money made on the track. It's not the sport of kings anymore. It's a business.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I disagree. One more year of stud fees for this horse will far outweigh the amount of money made on the track. It's not the sport of kings anymore. It's a business.

We all understand that. I'm saying that the calculation is that racing more and losing some races (which happens when you race a lot) would potentially reduce the stud value. That's the real calculation. Only a tiny number of top stakes horses ever end up euthanized or unable to serve at stud due to a racing injury. And honestly, Lloyd's of London will sell you insurance against that risk. There's no insurance against losing races decreasing the stud value.

[paulbenny]

West Point is a well run business. I actually interviewed with them too. I am really an outsider to racing but did a lot of little things to see what goes on like volunteering at the museum, working in mutuels, consulting to an adw, etc along with being a handicapper and business man. So my thought is Finley is smart to sell a partial stake and the notion of extrapolating that to a 200 million dollar animal is an interesting thought. That being said, how many people on here would combine their funds to get a very small piece if they could have. WPT knew it was a solid money in the bank strategy to sell off enough to go out and deploy the cash on other runners or draw some interest on treasuries in the meantime. Strike while the iron is hot. How many great horses did Secretariat sire by the way? It is a guessing game really. General Assembly is the only one imbedded in my mind. I am not researching this. The point is the future runs definitely could have substantially reduced his attractiveness due to losses. You are right. Play it safe and go the register.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

We all understand that. I'm saying that the calculation is that racing more and losing some races (which happens when you race a lot) would potentially reduce the stud value. That's the real calculation. Only a tiny number of top stakes horses ever end up euthanized or unable to serve at stud due to a racing injury. And honestly, Lloyd's of London will sell you insurance against that risk. There's no insurance against losing races decreasing the stud value.

I really don't think his stud fee would be really affected by one loss. LIG lost 2 races and his initial fee is $100,00. American Pharoah's was $200k and he lost a race.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I really don't think his stud fee would be really affected by one loss. LIG lost 2 races and his initial fee is $100,00. American Pharoah's was $200k and he lost a race.

If you imagine Flightline having a career like an old-time horse (let's say Affirmed, with 29 starts), you wouldn't simply be worried about "losing a race" (although I do think "losing a race" might be more costly than you are positing). You'd be worried about multiple losses, a decline in form, etc. The path of least resistance is to establish a horse's breeding value and then retire immediately, and that is what we are seeing.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

West Point is a well run business. I actually interviewed with them too. I am really an outsider to racing but did a lot of little things to see what goes on like volunteering at the museum, working in mutuels, consulting to an adw, etc along with being a handicapper and business man. So my thought is Finley is smart to sell a partial stake and the notion of extrapolating that to a 200 million dollar animal is an interesting thought. That being said, how many people on here would combine their funds to get a very small piece if they could have. WPT knew it was a solid money in the bank strategy to sell off enough to go out and deploy the cash on other runners or draw some interest on treasuries in the meantime. Strike while the iron is hot. How many great horses did Secretariat sire by the way? It is a guessing game really. General Assembly is the only one imbedded in my mind. I am not researching this. The point is the future runs definitely could have substantially reduced his attractiveness due to losses. You are right. Play it safe and go the register.

IDK if Secretariat sired any "great" horses (that's obviously a debate), but he sired a horse of the year and certainly one of the best racemares of the 1980's, Lady's Secret, and sired Risen Star, who was one hell of a 3 year old and who might have even won the TC with some better luck and a better post position in the Derby. He did sire General Assembly, who was a very nice horse, as you noted. Terlingua was another really nice one from the same era as General Assembly. And he excelled as a sire of broodmares, although the specifics of this would probably be best left to one of our breeding experts such as Spalding No!

That said, you are absolutely right that there's considerable guesswork in the breeding industry. A very nice example of that was Citation, who really was one of the greatest American racehorses of the 20th Century (in fact, if he hadn't run into another top horse, Noor, as a 5 year old, he might be recognized as the GOAT), and who was absolutely royally bred (Bull Lea from a Hyperion mare; in the 1940's, it didn't get any better than that), but was never the sire his owners at Calumet Farm hoped him to be.

And meanwhile there are other horses like Cee's Tizzy who weren't thought of as anything when they started their stud career and turned out to be wonderful sires. You never know for sure.