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01-29-2019, 11:14 PM
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#421
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 1/30/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(2)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,
Post Time Race #1 6:15 AM WED EST
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1 - 1200M C5 (6F)T
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. 6-9-7 W/ 1-4-10
...6:15 AM EST
R#2 - 1200M C4 (6F)T
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1-6-7 W/ 11-4-2
6:45 AM EST
R#3 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
2-9-4 W/ 1-12-8 .....7:15 AM EST -
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T
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4-1-9 W/ 11-3-7
....7:45 AM EST
R#5 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.
2-1-3 W/ 6-4-5 ......8:15 AM EST
R#6 - 1800M C2 (9F)T
... 3-9-2 W/ 1-4-10
..8:45 AM EST .
R#7 1000M C3 (5F)T
.. 1-6-9 W/ 10-8-2 .....9:15 AM EST
R#8 - 1200M C2 (6F)T..
.. 1-3-5 W/ 8-7-6
9:50 AM EST
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01-30-2019, 11:50 AM
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#422
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
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R#1 - 1200M C5 (6F)T
. 6-9-1 W/ 7-4-10
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...6:15 AM EST
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1-10-6-9 - #1 substituted for #7 due to betting Dutch Win 42% Profit Margin-Passed / $108.50 Quinella & $1413.00 Triple / All of that one!
Quote:
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R#2 - 1200M C4 (6F)T
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1-6-7 W/ 11-4-2
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6:45 AM EST
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6-9-8-10 Dutch Win 15% Profit Margin-Passed /
Quote:
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R#3 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
2-9-4 W/ 1-12-8 .......7:15 AM EST -
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4-1-2-8 Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin/ $22.20 Quinella & $108.60 Triple / All of that one!
Quote:
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R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T
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4-1-9 W/ 11-3-7
.....7:45 AM EST
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4-5-11-9 Dutch Win 37% Profit Margin-Passed /
Quote:
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R#5 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.
2-1-3 W/ 6-4-5
.....8:15 AM EST
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1-4-8-7 Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin/ $29.60 Quinella
Quote:
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R#6 - 1800M C2 (9F)T
... 3-9-2 W/ 1-4-10
..8:45 AM EST
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3-5-8-9 Dutch Win 30% Profit Margin-Passed /
Quote:
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R#7 1000M C3 (5F)T
.. 1-6-9 W/ 10-8-2 ......9:15 AM EST
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1-12-4-11 Dutch Win 90% Profit Margin /
Quote:
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R#8 - 1200M C2 (6F)T..
.. 1-3-5 W/ 8-7-6
9:50 AM EST
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3-8-7-5 Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin/ $12.60 Quinella & $41.20 Triple / All of that one!
It was another very profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. healthy Profit Margin of 66% and that was from hitting all 4 of the 4 playable races. Otherwise every other race was also hit, but the Profit Margins were too low for risking a play.
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02-01-2019, 11:22 PM
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#423
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SAT- 2/2/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 7 to be run on Turf and 3 on the Dirt: (from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (3)-Class-5
Post Time Race #1 12:00 AM SAT EST
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1 - 1000M C5 (5F)T
... 3-9-4 W/ 5-7-2
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...12:00 PM EST
(May sub #5 or #7 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#2 - 1800M C5 (9F)D
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3-2-5 W/ 4-1-9
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12:30 AM EST
(May sub #1 or #9 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#3 1000M C4 (5F)T
. 6-7-3 W/ 2-5-13 .......1:00 AM EST -
(May sub #2 or #5 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T
.. 9-5-1 W/ 4-10-3
.....1:30 AM EST
(May sub #5 into bottom tier of top 6 if live tote indicates)
R#5 - 1400M C5 (7F)T.
. 10-1-9 W/ 6-11-13 ..2:00 AM EST
(May sub #6 or #11 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#6 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D.. 7-6-1 W/ 3-11-8
..2:35 AM EST
(May sub #3, #8 or #11 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T..
... 3-8-9 W/ 7-4-1 ......3:05 AM EST
R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D.
4-7-2 W/ 5-3-10
3:35 AM EST
(May sub #3, #5 or #10 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#9 - 1800M C3 (9F)T.
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. 4-6-9 W/ 11-1-3
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.4:10 AM EST
(May sub #1, #3 or #11 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T...... 11-7-3 W/ 1-4-6
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.4:45 AM EST
(May sub #1 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
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02-01-2019, 11:49 PM
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#424
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 102
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Good luck tonight Nitro.
If you have time...I'm curious....when setting up your initial plays, are you looking at posted morning lines and then early money (hours before pre-race) on horses to determine those plays, then adjusting as it gets inside 5 mins to post? I'm trying to get an inkling on what helps you determine your early choices.
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02-02-2019, 12:00 AM
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#425
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramblin
Good luck tonight Nitro.
If you have time...I'm curious....when setting up your initial plays, are you looking at posted morning lines and then early money (hours before pre-race) on horses to determine those plays, then adjusting as it gets inside 5 mins to post? I'm trying to get an inkling on what helps you determine your early choices.
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Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
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02-02-2019, 12:08 AM
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#426
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
R#1 - 1000M C5 (5F)T
... 3-9-4 W/ 5-7-2
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...12:00 PM EST
(May sub #5 or #7 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
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5-8-3-9 Dutch Loss 68% Profit Margin / No action on the LS Placer #8
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02-02-2019, 12:09 AM
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#427
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 102
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Much appreciated sir. I'll have to try and look at a card pre-race and see if I can get the right neurons to fire and devise a positive strategy similar to yours.
Thanks for sharing and I'll try to keep the questions down but...well...maybe once a race card if you don't mind hahahaaa
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02-02-2019, 12:41 AM
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#428
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
R#2 - 1800M C5 (9F)D….… 3-5-1 W/ 4-2-9 - #1 sub for #2 after heavy late action …….…12:30 AM EST –
(May sub #1 or #9 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
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12-4-1-13– Dutch Loss 32% Profit Margin-Passed / No action on the LS Winner #12
Last edited by Nitro; 02-02-2019 at 12:52 AM.
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02-02-2019, 01:00 AM
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#429
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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02-02-2019, 01:07 AM
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#430
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
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Result
Big balloons...!
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02-02-2019, 01:09 AM
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#431
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
R#3 1000M C4 (5F)T
. 6-7-3 W/ 2-5-13 .......1:00 AM EST -
(May sub #2 or #5 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
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14-13-12-2 Dutch Loss 56% Profit Margin / Lots of heavy very late action on the LS Winner #14 27/1 to 16/1 !
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02-02-2019, 01:29 AM
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#432
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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02-02-2019, 01:42 AM
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#433
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…….. 4-9-12 W/ 1-6-11 – Initially Posted incorrectly – you’ll have to take my word on that one or just view the final tote action ….....1:30 AM EST –
(May sub #5 into bottom tier of top 6 if live tote indicates)
Never changed the selections from last weekend - See post #391 - Race #4
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12-10-11-7– Dutch Win 78% Profit Margin /
Last edited by Nitro; 02-02-2019 at 01:49 AM.
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02-02-2019, 02:12 AM
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#434
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
R#5 - 1400M C5 (7F)T.
. 10-1-9 W/ 6-11-13
.....2:00 AM EST
(May sub #6 or #11 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
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11-10-6-9 Dutch Loss 11% Profit Margin-Passed / $27.30 Quinella & $470.60 Triple / ALL of that one!
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02-02-2019, 02:20 AM
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#435
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 245
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RACE 6 HK
8 WITH 3 4 1 15 MTP
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