2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

UPDATE - R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D.……. 3-5-6 W/ 4-11-2 ….....2:00 AM EST –

[VigorsTheGrey]

R5

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE - R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D.……. 3-5-6 W/ 4-11-2 ….....2:00 AM EST –

9-8-4-3– Dutch Loss 90% Profit Margin/ - The update was a bust - #9 the LS winner was an early pick but showed limited action and dropped.

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……..….. 3-1-12 W/ 5-6-4 ……..2:35 AM EST –

.
9-7-6-13– Dutch Loss 44% Margin/Passed – Some massive exotic results with the Placer #7 @ 165/1

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1200M C4 (6F)D……..….. 1-2-11 W/ 5-6-7 ......3:05 AM EST –

2-3-10-4– Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin/Passed –

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1800M C4 (9F)T..….… 7-2-10 W/ 1-12-13 ………3:35 AM EST –

2-11-12-1 – BIG Dutch Win 185% Profit Margin /

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.…….…. 12-5-2 W/ 10-14-8 ….….4:10 AM EST –

12-14-8-2– Dutch Win 25% Profit Margin/Passed - $7.50 Quinella & $52.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T......... 9-3-12 W/ 2-8-4 #3 & #12 moved into the Top 3 with a lot of betting action….….4:45 AM EST –
13-3-1-12– Dutch Loss 43% Profit Margin/Passed –

It turned out to be a half way decent card with some limited Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 53%, and was hit from only 1 of 2 playable races.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. January 9, 2019… 36thrace meeting of the 2018-2019 year.

Weather report: 63 Degrees Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190109_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 Split Of A Second (3-1) Was all out to get up in his last while chasing down the favourite and without changing leads, gets a better post today but also picks up 4 pounds which translates to a little more than a half-length which may cost him at the wire.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 236 (Winners: 11th & 12th, Second: 2nd & 8th)
Race 5 Universal Go Go (12-1)

Race 226 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 5th, Second: 4th & 6th)
Race 7 Perfect Glory (7-2)
Race 7 God Of Dragon (16-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 6 Southern Legend (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Kwaichung Brothers (5-1)
Race 8 Telecom Brothers (8-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 6 Horse Of Fortune (35-1)
Race 8 Super Hoppy (14-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Goko (42-1)
Race 6 Dinozzo (16-1)
Race 8 Country Star (4-5)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Special Stars (3-5) He was an easy winner in his previous race at this level and at the Valley, at the start he reared not costing him all that much ground to the field but just enough to give him a set-back. He raced two wide in the turn and in a nice stalking position, shifted to the 5 path entering the stretch and just missed by a head to Thou Shall Sing who had an 8 pound weight advantage and a much easier trip, looked full of run in the gallop out.

Race 6 Dinozzo (16-1) In his first try at Class 2 since last January where he has an exceptional record at this level with 3 wins and 3 seconds out of 11 races. He recently had been running against some real bears what with Beauty Generation and Time Warp. He has not been a big fan of going this distance though, winless after 7 tries at it. At the break he lifted his front legs causing him to lose a step to the field, then immediately afterwards he was bumped from both directions, raced three wide in the turn for home then shifted to the six path looking for running room entering the stretch. Finished gamely in the stretch while being beaten pretty easily by the second time Australian import for Frankie Lor who looks to be a real runner, should get the services of Moreira next time considering he comes from the John Size barn. May be a little in over his head in here.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 8 Super Hoppy (14-1)

Key Play:
Race 7 Perfect Glory (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 Flying Force (21-1)
Race 5 Sparkling Sword (12-1)
Race 8 Super Hoppy (14-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley with all 8 races to be run on Turf: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-GR3, (1)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T……..10-5-8 W/ 7-4-11 …...6:15 AM EST –

R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T……….… 4-1-10 W/ 11-8-9 …….6:45 AM EST –

R#3 – 1200M C4(6F)T…..…..… 9-5-1 W/ 4-7-8 ........7:15 AM EST -

R#4 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……... 7-10-2 W/ 5-12-8 …...7:45 AM EST –

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T.…. 9-1-7 W/ 5-10-2 ….....8:15 AM EST –

R#6 - 1800M G3 (9F)T……... 1-2-5 W/ 4-3-6 …….....8:45 AM EST – .

R#7 – 1650M C3 (8.25F)T….. 1-12-2 W/ 11-9-6 .....9:15 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M C2 (6F)T..…...… 5-7-8 W/ 12-6-1 ………9:50 AM EST –

[Nitro]

There was a lot of live betting activity that caused selection substitutions in some of the races. Without following the tote board these changes would not be recognized:

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…….. 10-5-4 W/ 7-8-11 ….…...6:15 AM EST –

2-7-10-8– Dutch Loss 48% Profit Margin-Passed /

R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T……….… 4-1-10 W/ 11-8-9 …….…6:45 AM EST –

1-7-10-9– Dutch Win 16% Profit Margin-Passed /

R#3 – 1200M C4(6F)T…..…..… 9-5-1 W/ 4-7-8 ......7:15 AM EST -

9-6-1-4– Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin /

R#4 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……..….. 7-10-2 W/ 5-12-8 ….....7:45 AM EST –

10-7-4-12– Dutch Win 3% Profit Margin-Passed / $8.30 Quinella

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T.……. 9-2-7 W/ 5-10-1 ….....8:15 AM EST –

4-9-8-2– Dutch Loss 20% Profit Margin-Passed /

R#6 - 1800M G3 (9F)T……..….. 1-2-6 W/ 4-3-5 ……..8:45 AM EST –

.
6-8-9-1– Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin /

R#7 – 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…….. 1-12-2 W/ 11-7-6 ......9:15 AM EST –

7-6-2-9– Dutch Loss 57% Profit Margin /

R#8 - 1200M C2 (6F)T..….… 5-7-8 W/ 12-6-1 ………9:50 AM EST –

5-4-6-7– Dutch Win 34% Profit Margin-Passed /

It was a very sparing card with limited profit. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of only 8% and was hit from only 2 of 3 playable races with limited profitability.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. January 12, 2019 37thrace meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 73 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: WNW 5 to 10mph

Post time: 12pm ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190112_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Proud Sky (3-1) Moves off the rail to the 12 post after a fair run on the dirt, gets Moreira which will lower his true odds for a 5% trainer on a runner who is only 2 for 32 in Hong Kong. His performance ratings are consistently 6 points lower than par in a field that has at least 4 others that have run to par recently.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 127 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 7th)
Race 2 Dazzle Winner (16-1)

Race 268 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 7th)
Race 3 Moneymore (8-1)
Race 3 Sun Foxhunter (24-1)

Race 236 (Winners: 11th, 12th & 13th, Second: 2nd & 8th)
Race 5 Bingo Hero (11-1)
Race 8 Smart Charade (13-1)

Race 178 (Winners: 2nd & 9th, Second: 6th)
Race 10 Double Valentine (21-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Outouto (6-1)
Race 6 Good Fit (12-1)
Race 9 Elusive State (3-1)
Race 10 Victory Machine (16-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 3 Dor Dor (3-1)
Race 5 Chairman Lo (9-5)
Race 5 Bingo Hero (11-1)
Race 6 Remarkable (7-2)
Race 7 Ping Hai Treasure (11-1)
Race 8 Sir Redalot (11-1)
Race 9 Raging Blitzkrieg (10-1)
Race 10 Victory Machine (16-1)
Race 10 Tornado Twist (7-5)

Horses for courses running today:
None

Distance specialists running today:
None

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 5 Chairman Lo (9-5) Drew the 4 post in his debut for John Size and Moreira going 6 furlongs at Sha Tin going off at 6-1. He broke well and was very slightly bumped soon after the start, settled mid-pack while running on the rail. He settled down very nicely in the turn and didn’t seem to mind rivals being around him close proximity, looked the winner at the 200 metre mark but as soon as he took the lead his youth started to take its toll and he switched off his proper lead step costing him his momentum, he did continue to run to the wire succumbing to a rival that was conceding 13 pounds to him while defeating the third place runner by 2 ½ lengths and galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Race 10 Invincible Missile (6-1) First time starter for So was live on the board being bet down to 6-1 in a competitive Class 4 12 horse field while breaking on the rail (which usually is doom for a first time starter). Settled 4 lengths off the 2 horse duel without any interference around him while saving ground, moved off the rail entering the stretch and at the 200 metre mark moved past the 2 tiring front runners without any encouragement from Whyte and drew off to an easy win with his ears pricked straight up, very professional and should have plenty in the tank for his next out.

Past watch list runners running today:
None

Key Plays:
Race 4 Super Star (8-5)
Race 5 Chairman Lo (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 8 Sir Redalot (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 to be run on Turf and 2 on the Dirt: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SAT EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1200M C5 (6F)T…….. 2-9-1 W/ 6-7-10 ….…..12:00 PM EST –

R#2 - 1800M C5 (9F)T….… 5-10-4 W/ 2-1-7 …….…12:30 AM EST –

R#3 – 1200M C4(6F)T….... 1-13-2 W/ 6-9-11 ......1:00 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T….… 10-1-8 W/ 2-7-11 ….....1:30 AM EST –

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.….. 6-4-1 W/ 13-2-8 ….....2:00 AM EST –

R#6 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D … 2-1-7 W/ 3-5-12 ……..2:35 AM EST – .

R#7 – 1800M C4 (9F)T…….. 5-6-11 W/ 2-3-12 ......3:05 AM EST –

R#8 - 1400M C3 (7F)T..….. 13-1-5 W/ 7-3-10 ………3:35 AM EST –

R#9 - 1650M C2 (8.25F)D.…. 8-6-9 W/ 14-7-1 ….….4:10 AM EST –

R#10 - 1200M C3 (6F)T..... 14-3-8 W/ 12-13-10 ….4:45 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1200M C5 (6F)T…….. 2-9-1 W/ 6-7-10 ….…...12:00 PM EST –

7-2-8-9– Dutch Loss 37% Profit Margin-Passed / $16.80 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1800M C5 (9F)T……… 5-10-4 W/ 2-1-7 …….…12:30 AM EST –

10-12-2-4– Dutch Win 72% Profit Margin/