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11-09-2022, 12:23 PM
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#481
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,655
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
What comes out? I don't think his losses should be expunged. I simply said if he was carefully managed he could have won every start. I'm presuming he'd be managed the way horses like Flightline & Life is Good were handled. That might even preclude him from winning the Triple Crown or ever running on the grass.
Isn't that the most obvious one of his "frequent" losses that he should have won considering the amount of traffic & trouble he found himself in?
You do this for a living, right?
Didn't I mention something about him wheeling back in the Marlboro Cup "on the heels of an illness"?
Huh? I guess the turf could be characterized as "forgiving" based on its condition the days he worked on it, but it is not a subjective comment to state that Secretariat worked twice on the turf (4f & one mile) in the 2-week period between the Marlboro Cup & the Woodward. That's a fact.
It's also well-documented that Secretariat was entered in the Woodward in place of Riva Ridge when the forecast turned against the mud-hating older horse.
Thanks.
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On second thought, might respond if I get time. Tx.
Last edited by mountainman; 11-09-2022 at 12:34 PM.
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11-09-2022, 12:24 PM
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#482
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
IDK if Secretariat sired any "great" horses (that's obviously a debate), but he sired a horse of the year and certainly one of the best racemares of the 1980's, Lady's Secret, and sired Risen Star, who was one hell of a 3 year old and who might have even won the TC with some better luck and a better post position in the Derby. He did sire General Assembly, who was a very nice horse, as you noted. Terlingua was another really nice one from the same era as General Assembly. And he excelled as a sire of broodmares, although the specifics of this would probably be best left to one of our breeding experts such as Spalding No!
That said, you are absolutely right that there's considerable guesswork in the breeding industry. A very nice example of that was Citation, who really was one of the greatest American racehorses of the 20th Century (in fact, if he hadn't run into another top horse, Noor, as a 5 year old, he might be recognized as the GOAT), and who was absolutely royally bred (Bull Lea from a Hyperion mare; in the 1940's, it didn't get any better than that), but was never the sire his owners at Calumet Farm hoped him to be.
And meanwhile there are other horses like Cee's Tizzy who weren't thought of as anything when they started their stud career and turned out to be wonderful sires. You never know for sure.
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War Emblem. The poster boy for “retired means retired”
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WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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11-09-2022, 12:37 PM
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#483
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Might respond if I get time. Tx .
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Spalding nailed Secretariat's career (which I remember) - love your Mountaineer commentary, but you have an uphill battle here
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11-09-2022, 01:16 PM
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#484
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
War Emblem. The poster boy for “retired means retired”
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Haha. One of the all time jerks. Didn't get along with anybody, not even the mares
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11-09-2022, 01:32 PM
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#485
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,655
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryOldMan
Spalding nailed Secretariat's career (which I remember) - love your Mountaineer commentary, but you have an uphill battle here
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Tx. Well, he did COVER the entire career. But the validity of ALL those excuses will be revisited. Or maybe not. Little desire to put the work in. Plus, it has already veered off into word semantics-which entails WAY too much effort.
Last edited by mountainman; 11-09-2022 at 01:42 PM.
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11-09-2022, 07:29 PM
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#486
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,003
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Flightline stud fee set at $200K
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11-09-2022, 08:07 PM
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#487
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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THE EUROPEANS
I would opt for one of the European runners recognizing the pound is around the dollar these days. Regardless of that, they have a purer run over there and I trust it more.
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11-10-2022, 09:54 AM
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#488
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,934
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
If you imagine Flightline having a career like an old-time horse (let's say Affirmed, with 29 starts), you wouldn't simply be worried about "losing a race" (although I do think "losing a race" might be more costly than you are positing). You'd be worried about multiple losses, a decline in form, etc. The path of least resistance is to establish a horse's breeding value and then retire immediately, and that is what we are seeing.
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You keep comparing everything to the 70's times have changed. Horses don't race 30 times in a career anymore unless they are claimers or geldings. Flightline has never been tested and racing one more year wouldn't prove anything because other trainers wouldn't want to face him. He would be running in 5 horse fields against overmatched horses. Horse owners can make a lot more money on stud fees than on the track. Not to mention the insurance rates for horses as valuable as Flightline. His initial stud fee is set at $200,000. If he sires 100 foals which is a low estimate. That's $20 million. He can't make that on the track
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11-10-2022, 10:16 AM
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#489
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azeri98
You keep comparing everything to the 70's times have changed. Horses don't race 30 times in a career anymore unless they are claimers or geldings. Flightline has never been tested and racing one more year wouldn't prove anything because other trainers wouldn't want to face him. He would be running in 5 horse fields against overmatched horses. Horse owners can make a lot more money on stud fees than on the track. Not to mention the insurance rates for horses as valuable as Flightline. His initial stud fee is set at $200,000. If he sires 100 foals which is a low estimate. That's $20 million. He can't make that on the track
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Nobody doubts the economics.
But it's silly to say he would be running in 5 horse fields. We used to have this thing called handicap races....
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11-10-2022, 11:36 AM
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#490
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azeri98
His initial stud fee is set at $200,000. If he sires 100 foals which is a low estimate. That's $20 million. He can't make that on the track
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Quality Road who was $150K last year at Lane's End and is going to be $200K this coming year, bred 156 mares last year. That's probably a good ballpark number. So the economics are understandable, if disappointing.
That said, it's still sad that a Tapit out of an Indian Charlie mare never even tried the turf to further cement the all-time great/superstar status (and maybe bring a few opponents out of the stalls).
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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11-11-2022, 01:24 AM
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#491
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: South of heaven
Posts: 384
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
IDK if Secretariat sired any "great" horses (that's obviously a debate), but he sired a horse of the year and certainly one of the best racemares of the 1980's, Lady's Secret, and sired Risen Star, who was one hell of a 3 year old and who might have even won the TC with some better luck and a better post position in the Derby. He did sire General Assembly, who was a very nice horse, as you noted. Terlingua was another really nice one from the same era as General Assembly. And he excelled as a sire of broodmares, although the specifics of this would probably be best left to one of our breeding experts such as Spalding No!
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Secretariat's stud career gets criticized because he didn't clone himself or produce 100 commercially popular sire sons. But if one takes time to look up Medaille d'Or, Tinner's Way, Kingston Rule, Fine Spirit, Dactylographer, Image of Greatness, Pancho Villa, and Super Staff... there's plenty to respect.
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11-11-2022, 09:30 AM
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#492
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,934
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Nobody doubts the economics.
But it's silly to say he would be running in 5 horse fields. We used to have this thing called handicap races....
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Used to. That's the point. I never liked handicapped races. Horses should run with equal weights. That's how you determine who the best is, not by having one horse drag around an extra 10 pounds for 1 1/4. How would it be if Carl Lewis had to Carry a 5 pound sack strapped to his back during the 100 meters . Would he he win? I doubt it, or maybe make Michael Jordan only shoot with his left hand?
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11-11-2022, 09:38 AM
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#493
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azeri98
Used to. That's the point. I never liked handicapped races. Horses should run with equal weights. That's how you determine who the best is, not by having one horse drag around an extra 10 pounds for 1 1/4. How would it be if Carl Lewis had to Carry a 5 pound sack strapped to his back during the 100 meters . Would he he win? I doubt it, or maybe make Michael Jordan only shoot with his left hand?
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Handicaps as an alternative to claiming races (as is done in much of the rest of the world) makes for very good racing and wagering.
The Carl Lewis and Michael Jordan analogies would make the now widely available wagering more interesting, for sure.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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11-11-2022, 09:47 AM
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#494
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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Handicap races are a double edged sword. I think if we sprinkled a few more on the calendar it might make for a couple of better gambling races, but the very best horses would avoid those specific races to avoid the big weight assignments. The only way you could sort of force them to run is if you made most of the big races handicaps and took away their options, but I don’t think anyone wants that either.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-11-2022, 10:12 AM
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#495
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,462
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But what if Flightline carried 136 anf LIG 122?
I loved handicap races. But with todays fragile pampered horses, I can see even shorter years than FL's this year.
What I really miss the Classified Alowance races. We have so few of them these days.
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