My Preakness Analysis (Even More Shameless Self Promotion)

[Grits]

Good look to everyone today. May you cash many and may they all come back safely.

In order of post position:

1 Astrology: never OTM, fresh, 28 days off, 3 L/O, very unusual to see one of Asmussen's go 6F in 1:12.2

4 Flashpoint: fresh, 48 days off

5 Shackleford

8 Dance City: never OTM, fresh, 35 days off, 3 L/O

9 MachoMuchoMan: Concerns, could toss, drifted in Derby

11 Animal Kingdom

All will be used in boxes including dime super, have been nailed too many times wheeling, nothing angers me more!!!
Want AK to win. Will put back up with W/P bets on 1-Astrology and 4-Flashpoint.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Grits

Good look to everyone today. May you cash many and may they all come back safely.

In order of post position:

1 Astrology: never OTM, fresh, 28 days off, 3 L/O, very unusual to see one of Asmussen's go 6F in 1:12.2

4 Flashpoint: fresh, 48 days off

5 Shackleford

8 Dance City: never OTM, fresh, 35 days off, 3 L/O

9 MachoMuchoMan: Concerns, could toss, drifted in Derby

11 Animal Kingdom

All will be used in boxes including dime super, have been nailed too many times wheeling, nothing angers me more!!!
Want AK to win. Will put back up with W/P bets on 1-Astrology and 4-Flashpoint.

Replace Animal Kingdom with Mr. Commons and we have the same bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think Flashpoint's connections are going to want to get into a tussle with Shackleford early. I just don't see it happening.

Is Flashpoint capable of running with Shack early? No doubt. They are both about the same when it comes to front running speed.

However, I think there are more distance question marks surrounding Flashpoint than there are with Shackleford.

And let's not forget, Shackleford ran Flashpoint off his feet and dusted him in the Florida Derby.

Unless Flashpoint goes out on a suicide mission, I don't think Shackleford has anything to fear from that one.

The speed I most fear is Dance City.

[Bubbles]

PA, I see what you're saying, but couldn't you also argue that Flashpoint bounced in his third career start off a 102 Beyer at second asking? I'm not sure Flashpoint can win, but as one of five graded stakes-winners in this field with the second-highest Beyer in the race behind Animal Kingdom, I think leaving him off exotics tickets at 20-1 ML odds is risky.

You're right in that if the Flashpoint that ran fourth in the FLA Derby shows up, he won't be a factor, but my guess is you'll see a better one today. Here's hoping I'm right.

[jk3521]

Play 10 and 11 in the win, show and fourth places in supers with 1,2,3,6,8,9 in the place/show positions and a saver on 10-11 Exacta box. Need either one to finish 3rd or 4th to make any money. Of course either one or both could run out ,too.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't think Flashpoint's connections are going to want to get into a tussle with Shackleford early. I just don't see it happening.

Is Flashpoint capable of running with Shack early? No doubt. They are both about the same when it comes to front running speed.

However, I think there are more distance question marks surrounding Flashpoint than there are with Shackleford.

And let's not forget, Shackleford ran Flashpoint off his feet and dusted him in the Florida Derby.

Unless Flashpoint goes out on a suicide mission, I don't think Shackleford has anything to fear from that one.

The speed I most fear is Dance City.

It was reported, on HRTV, that the connections of Flashpoint are definitely sending and want the front. The connections, also, claimed that he is not head strong in his works and can actually be held with only the exercise rider's little fingers (implying he can get to the lead and settle).

If Dance City can rate off of Flash & Shack he will be tough to beat.

Full disclosure....I haven't even been close with my selections, so far, today.

Good Luck,

Mike

[jognlope]

You have to make at least a $1 bet with 10 cent superfector, such as wheel or box it.

[Blenheim]

Your analysis is a good one.

As I have read on this forum we are not in this to pick winners, we are in this to make money. Three to one is a good bet offering a fair return and last I read horses going off at 3/1 win 70% of the time.

From what I have read at Brisnet and from the data you have posted, playing a horse on or near the lead on this speed favoring track is a good bet. I pulled this post from a different forum and written by "Wrongly": Pace - past 25 - Wire to Wire 4, Stalkers 10, Closer 9, Deep closer 1 (Curlin after a terrible start was 15 lengths back).

I thought your analysis might have touched on how early pace stress may cause the front runners to fade in deep stretch and if so, who will likely pick up the pieces. Other than that I wish you best of racing luck and hopefully Shackelford will get a relatively easy lead - if he does, it'll make for a great race! It'll be interesting to see if he can wire em!

I'm taking a shot with Astrology at 15/1. Ran a lifetime best in his last, almost a month freshening, a strong racing speed 6fl breeze and another good 5fl work, both at CD - it appears he is likely to improve. He gets post position , last I read that post position is winning at a % clip, he'll be able to save ground while stalking the front speed - with a little bit of racing luck he should be able to get through to go get me some mony!

Once again, best of racing luck.

[hugh]

I don't see any value with AK today...
Still like 3M and ..... Astrology (alot of folks are staying away due to all the hype surrounding the poll (curse) in the derby)... This is a TOTALLY different race.
Good luck today!!

[Tom]

I see a filed of crappy horses who can't put together anything resembling a racing career.

I have of respect for a single one of them - they are third rate horses.

The rest of the card is awesome and very playable - why waste time on the crappiest race on the card. I'll be cooking hots on the grill when this nonsense runs. Need nourishment for Evd tonight.

[GaryG]

Dance City on top for me with AK, Shack and Mucho underneath

[lamboguy]

3-1 on the kentucky derby winner is value in spades

[depalma113]

Animal Kingdom - He was much the best in Kentucky and should be much the best today.

That being said, the Triple Crown doesn't pay my bills. He will be in all spots on my tickets just like Louisville.

Exacta:
10,11,13 / 1,6,7,9,10,11,13

$.50 Trifecta:
10,11,13 / 10,11,13 / 1,6,7,9,10,11,13

$.50 Trifecta:
10,11,13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10 , 11, 13 / 10, 11, 13

$.10 Super
10,11,13 / 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13

$.10 Super
10,11,13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13

$.10 Super
10,11,13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 10, 11, 13

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

3-1 on the kentucky derby winner is value in spades

It's value, but only slightly... ...I have him at 5-2 on my value line.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's value, but only slightly... ...I have him at 5-2 on my value line.

the overlay certainly doesn't take care of the takeout!

very smart post though