Take Charge Brandi: How Did It Happen And What Does The Future Have In Store For Her

[Bob S.]

Take Charge Brandi won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at odds of 62-1. Was it a fluke?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014...store-for-her/

[classhandicapper]

In her last race the pace was savage. The race collapsed. It was also on a track that had been playing much tougher on speed than SA was on Saturday.

I don't think that made her the most likely winner or anything even remotely close to that, but I know SEVERAL people that used her at 60-1 and turned me on to her last race performance before the Juvenile filly.

[Broad Brush]

I know I am setting myself up for "Red Boarding" comments with this.

She was my best bet of the day.

I took a beating on Friday's card {did not cash a single ticket}.

When I handicapped the card Friday night I knew she was going to be
a great bet. I did not expect 60-1; I though 25-1 a best.

I make my own pace figs and she fit one of my best patterns.

In her second start she ran a faster pace at 6f then any horse in the race.

This is a great sign given her breeding is for distance.

Her next two starts were very slow paced--don't know why.

Then, in her last start--I can't tell how fast that pace was that she set from the 11 post. When a horse shows a dramatic increase in pace {especially when bred for distance} they take a big step forward in their next start.

I was concerned that she did it on a "wet fast" track but the odds were to good to not bet.

Also, when you back a front runner that nobody regards high, they tend to leave them alone on the lead.

When she opened up a little at the 3/8s pole I knew she had a big shot.

Everyone at my table was screaming for her--we were the only ones.

It was great!!

With her breeding, I don't see why she can't train on next year.

Thanks Again "Brandi" you made my Breeder's Cup.

[Some_One]

I don't lose sleep over 60-1 horses that win, just chalk it up to variance and move on to the next week.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Bob S.

Take Charge Brandi won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at odds of 62-1. Was it a fluke?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014...store-for-her/

Wow...talk about leaving one over the plate for me to swing at...lol

Well, not a fluke...she was the second best horse in the race, according to the TimeFormUS numbers and the way I used them that day. And I posted her as a selection and wager for me, on this board, before the race, in two different threads...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=118063

and here

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...3&page=2&pp=15 (scroll to bottom)

[PhantomOnTour]

Pace - you are getting all the mileage you POSSIBLY can out of that selection, aren't ya?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Pace - you are getting all the mileage you POSSIBLY can out of that selection, aren't ya?

If it was the ONLY big time selection that day from me, I'd agree with your sentiment...

[Bob S.]

I just think people had a hard time getting past the Beyer Speed Figures that were 15 to 20 points lower than the other horses and that in her past 3 races she had finished 10 lengths or worse behind the winning horses.

[letswastemoney]

Beyer Figures are sometimes just a product of what kind of trip the horse had.

I didn't have Take Charge Brandi, but I knew she was pace compromised in the Alcibiades.

[menifee]

Da'Tara 2.0

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by menifee

Da'Tara 2.0

This isn't the Belmont Stakes.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

This isn't the Belmont Stakes.

Ok, how about Ria Antonia 2.0?

[FantasticDan]

Originally Posted by Bob S.

I just think people had a hard time getting past the Beyer Speed Figures that were 15 to 20 points lower than the other horses and that in her past 3 races she had finished 10 lengths or worse behind the winning horses.

I took a good look at her but discounted her for the above as well. After the race I looked at the special BC DRF chart that listed the top-4 selections for each race from 15 different handicappers. Brandi was nowhere to be seen.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Ok, how about Ria Antonia 2.0?

About 8.0. Plenty of Juvenile Fillies winners have done nothing after.

[Bob S.]

Many Juvenile Fillies' winners have done something after the race. Storm Flag Flying, Indian Blessing, Stardom Bound, Dreaming of Anna, Awesome Feather, My Miss Aurelia and Beholder all won Stakes/Graded Races at ages 3 and 4.