Running On Off Tracks

[Sparky13]

What would your "criteria" be for a Horse to be considered a good runner on wet/muddy tracks? Won at least one race, high percentage of places of races run on off tracks, etc.

[Otter]

Originally Posted by Sparky13

What would your "criteria" be for a Horse to be considered a good runner on wet/muddy tracks? Won at least one race, high percentage of places of races run on off tracks, etc.

Great question Sparky13, and almost impossible to answer. Even for proven mudders and handicappers - who is to know when they're going to have an off day lol - why we keep coming back seeking that great payout!


I think whether harness / thoroughbred having all the workouts, qualifiers races, off track stats, access to lifetime pp's would be extremely beneficial, videos is excellent in seeking that criteria to try to find a pattern in the chaos and land on a "criteria".


One horse came to mind though that helped me - Exaggerator. The way he romped in the Santa Anita Derby was amazement. If memory serves me correctly there was a rain delay in the KY Derby and while not winning and not all that much rain he ran ok, but pretty awesome on the wet. However while he seemed to be an exceptional mudder and the wetter the better, otherwise I saw the aforementioned horse as an avg. or below avg. 3 yo when running on a fast track.


I was fortunate enough to catch one of his offspring, Bourbon's Hope break his maiden on the wet with a nice lil' speed figure, unfortunately that horse didn't see too many wet track since and my instincts tell me he would of loved it!



Find the horses that love the wet, and follow them as such in our virtual stable, check the weather and track condition, optimal other conditions ie class, etc...say a prayer, and they're off!!!





GL EV1!

[46zilzal]

speed does much better on off going

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Sparky13

What would your "criteria" be for a Horse to be considered a good runner on wet/muddy tracks? Won at least one race, high percentage of places of races run on off tracks, etc.

On my YouTube channel, I have a video, Horses That Prefer A Certain Type Of Footing, originally published a month ago. I show some examples. This is very important, in my opinion. Some horses are sucker bets on certain types of surfaces because they only run well if they get the footing they like.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

speed does much better on off going

ALL off going?

[Publius]

Originally Posted by Sparky13

What would your "criteria" be for a Horse to be considered a good runner on wet/muddy tracks? Won at least one race, high percentage of places of races run on off tracks, etc.

In some races the player wager on the OFF the TURF race as if the race is ON turf. You can find some profitable opportunities at times, especially at the SPA.



God I love the SPA.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Sparky13

What would your "criteria" be for a Horse to be considered a good runner on wet/muddy tracks? Won at least one race, high percentage of places of races run on off tracks, etc.

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

speed does much better on off going

Originally Posted by thaskalos

ALL off going?

Not necessarily because "off going" is a generic term with many meanings.

My personal criteria for playing a horse on off going would be based upon the type of off track we’re considering. Not all off tracks provide the same type of running surface. A muddy track can in one instance be going from fast to muddy because it’s getting wetter and wetter. In the other instance it could be going from sloppy to muddy because it’s drying out. The racing surface in either case may not be the same. When a track is considered sloppy it is generally completely saturated with water.

Not only that, but because the soil composition varies from one track to another, so will the actual running surface be different when the same muddy or sloppy conditions are declared. A good example would be a comparison between Aqueduct and Saratoga. Both muddy and sloppy conditions will provide different running surfaces from each other and likewise cause certain horses to prefer one over the other.

Another factor to consider particularly with muddy type tracks is how each track responds to the drainage of excessive moisture. Most tracks will drain toward the inside running lanes, but how fast that occurs will also create varying running surfaces and a potential bias particularly for those horses with inside post positions and or running closer to the rail.

With all this being said, I do prefer early speed type horses on sloppy type tracks only because it goes without saying that the surface will generally be more compact. (Similar to running on the wet part of a beach). They also have the advantage of not having the wet dirt/sand being thrown in their face. Muddy tracks on the other hand can be a real obstacle for that type of runner. That’s because the surface is not as resilient to pressure and in many situations can cause the premature loss of a horse’s energy during the final stages of a race.

Over the years I’m sure we’ve all come across many a horse that excels in the off going. They also have a strong tendency to like the grass as well. I recall two in particular that just relished the off going: Conquistador Cello and Cinteelo. This is an excerpt report from a race I witnessed back in the late 70’s that brings back a lot of fond memories from my days as a speed handicapper:

April 3, 1977
Frank (Pancho) Martin had the right Idea about strategy yesterday in the $55,150 Westchester Handicap at Aqueduct: soften up the front‐runners with the early speed of Root Cause and pick up the loot with the late kick of Turn and Count. It almost worked.

The problem for the favored Sigmund Sommer‐owned entry trained by Martin was that the track happened to be muddy from a day‐long rain. And a rival named Cinteelo, though many in the crowd of 25,569 apparently didn't realize it, moves up in the mud like swamp buggy.

With Eddie Maple giving him a patient ride, John M. Schiff's 4‐year‐old Cinteelo swept past Root Cause on the final bend and splashed his way to a 4½‐length victory. Turn and Count, rallying from a distant last in the nine-horse field, took second easily in the 1 1/16‐mile event. Cojak, one of the speed horses softened up by Root Cause, finished a tiring third, 2 ¾ lengths back of the top‐weighted Turn and Count. Root Cause faded to seventh.

Cinteelo, a grass specialist trained by Tommy Kelly, returned a generous $12.80 for $2 as the fourth choice. In the Racing Form past performances, his name was the only one in the Westchester with a big asterisk alongside it, denoting mud‐running superiority.

Cinteelo won two of four races in Florida last winter, one victory coming on a sloppy track and the other, in the Appleton Handicap, on the grass at Gulfstream Park. Kelly planned to withdraw him from yesterday's 53d running of the Westchester unless enough rain fell to turn the track muddy. It did, and Martin's well‐planned strategy was foiled.

Root Cause Sets Pace
Both Root Cause, ridden by George Martens, and Turn and Count, with 16‐year‐old Steve Cauthen aboard, played their expected roles. Root Cause, to shouts of “There goes the rabbit,” took an immediate lead and held it for better than three‐quarters of a mile. His six‐furlong fractional time was an honest 1:11 ⅕. And Turn and Count, far hack in last place until the far turn, delivered an impressive late wallop. In seven races this season, he still hasn't finished worse than second.

[pandy]

Here's my personal list, from my website. If anyone has any strong sires that you think should be included, let me know.

Horses with these names in their pedigree should like off tracks. This includes sires, dam sires, and broodmares. In some cases I've listed horses from similar families. For instance, Grindstone/Birdstone, Machiavellian and Street Cry. Relaunch (In Reality) is one of the most famous mudders so I also have other horses like Bertrando and Officer on the list, because they are from the same line:



Afleet
Air Forbes Won
A P Indy
Arch
Awesome Again
Bellamy Road
Benny The Bull
Bertrando
Bernardini
Birdstone
Blame
Blushing Groom
Boundary
Broad Brush
Cape Town
Candy Ride
Carson City
Cee's Tizzy
Central Banker
City Zip
Clever Trick
Conquistador Cielo
Cormorant
Council Member
Crafty Prospector
Cure The Blues
Danzig
Dehere
Deputy Minister
District
Distorted Humor
Dixie Union
El Prado
Elusive Quality
Empire Maker
Fappiano
Forty Niner
Ghostzapper
Gone West
Grindstone
Gulch
In Reality
Invasor
Java Gold
Kingmambo
Lookin At Lucky
Lord At War
Machiavellen
Macho Uno
Magna Graduate
Malibu Moon
Medaglia d'Oro
Memo
More Than Ready
Mr Prospector
Night Of Thunder
Noble Mission
Not For Love
Nureyev
Officer
Pioneer Of The Nile
Polish Numbers
Portobello Road
Pulpit
Quality Road
Quiet American
Rahy
Relaunch
Sea Prince
Sea The Moon
Sequoia Grove
Sinndar
Sky Mesa
Skywalker
Smart Strike
Speightstown
Spring At Last
Street Cry
Street Sense
Storm Cat
Successful Appeal
Super Saver
Tale Of Ekati
Thunder Gulch
Tiago
Unbridled
Unbridled's Song
Uncle Mo
Valid Appeal
Valid Wager
Wagon Limit

[mike_123_ca]

Originally Posted by Publius

In some races the player wager on the OFF the TURF race as if the race is ON turf. You can find some profitable opportunities at times, especially at the SPA.

Especially the ones entered as "Main Track Only" (MTO)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Breeding doesn't seem to be quite a solid of indicator for sloppy tracks as it was in the past - not sure why, but I can guess that the consistency of horses isn't what it used to be...

I'm sure there's some money to be made with good, soft and yielding turf courses, as the sample sizes are so small since races come off the turf sooner rather than later in the States. Watching the Aussie races on wet days, the analysts are always jabbering on about the "wet-trackers".

The other thing that comes to mind is there is a lot of variability between a fast track and a sloppy track. The glue-like tracks rated as good or muddy when drying out seem to just be HATED by some horses. Mine That Bird's Kentucky Derby shocker was on a muddy track, and he LOVED it, while every other horse in the race was swimming in place.

[andicap]

Originally Posted by pandy

Here's my personal list, from my website. If anyone has any strong sires that you think should be included, let me know.

Horses with these names in their pedigree should like off tracks. This includes sires, dam sires, and broodmares. In some cases I've listed horses from similar families. For instance, Grindstone/Birdstone, Machiavellian and Street Cry. Relaunch (In Reality) is one of the most famous mudders so I also have other horses like Bertrando and Officer on the list, because they are from the same line:

What? No Spanish Riddle?

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

ALL off going?

just about...better when it is cold

[ranchwest]

Wise Times was a mudder.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

just about...better when it is cold

In the good old days, my beloved Monmouth Park was one of the very few tracks that actually favored late foot runners when the track was sloppy. The rail was a real bog on sloppy track days as well.