*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[horseplayer]

Yes also - if shipper comes in with top rider - sometimes the rider will pick up a mount from a local trainer.

Maidens - first time starters at big odds - If top rider 19%+ gets on.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by horseplayer

Yes also - if shipper comes in with top rider - sometimes the rider will pick up a mount from a local trainer.

Maidens - first time starters at big odds - If top rider 19%+ gets on.

That makes perfect sense except....when you find a top rider on a FTS at big odds, let me know.

[NorCalGreg]

This is just a test of a new early-speed number. Means nothing right now.

BELMONT

2ND FEAST 9-2
5TH AWESOME INDIRA 5-1

LAD

2ND DRIFTER 3-1
3RD PARLAY PETE 2-1
5TH JEWELED CROWN 5-2

PID

2ND GREND TORTUGAN 4-1
3RD JOEYVILLE 6-1
7TH SMOKEY BLUES 5-1
8TH SAVE THE DRAMA 5-1

MONMOUTH

6TH MAGICAL JUSTICE 3-1
8TH SIGNATURE DISH

PARX

1ST ABHAIL
4TH EL FENOMENO 3-1
5TH ANGELSFOUR MICHELLE 2-1
7TH BAYLEAF 4-1

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

This is just a test of a new early-speed number. Means nothing right now.

BELMONT

2ND FEAST 9-2 1st $6.50
5TH AWESOME INDIRA 5-1 1st $13.00

LAD

2ND DRIFTER 3-1 2nd
3RD PARLAY PETE 2-1 3rd
5TH JEWELED CROWN 5-2 6th

PID

2ND GREND TORTUGAN 4-1 3rd
3RD JOEYVILLE 6-1 out
7TH SMOKEY BLUES 5-1 1st $8.40
8TH SAVE THE DRAMA 5-1 out

MONMOUTH

6TH MAGICAL JUSTICE 3-1 ?
8TH SIGNATURE DISH ?

PARX

1ST ABHAIL 3rd
4TH EL FENOMENO 3-1 out
5TH ANGELSFOUR MICHELLE 2-1 1st $5.20
7TH BAYLEAF 4-1 SCR

Monmouth is actually Mountaineer but still racing

So far 13 races 4 winners $6.50 $13.00 $8.40 $5.20
ITM was 8 for 13 races

Good job 1st day Greg

[NorCalGreg]

We've been busy working on a program that's been on and off the shelf several times in the past few years.

Well, it's back off the shelf. I've been trying to find an "early speed" rating. It might sound easy, but it's anything but.

Here's what I had for Monday, using the early speed rating and no other handicapping:

BELMONT

2ND FEAST 9-2 $6.50
5TH AWESOME INDIRA 5-1 $13.00

LAD

2ND DRIFTER 3-1
3RD PARLAY PETE 2-1
5TH JEWELED CROWN 5-2

PID

2ND GREND TORTUGAN 4-1
3RD JOEYVILLE 6-1
7TH SMOKEY BLUES 5-1 $8.40
8TH SAVE THE DRAMA 5-1

MOUNTAINEER

6TH MAGICAL JUSTICE 3-1
8TH SIGNATURE DISH $9.40

PARX

1ST ABHAIL
4TH EL FENOMENO 3-1
5TH ANGELSFOUR MICHELLE 2-1 $5.20


Don't know what Mike G's secret is...but LAD is now dead to me

[NorCalGreg]

Just for giggles here's FLX ranked by Platinum Power:

[NorCalGreg]

Okay this is what we're working on currently (for like the third time). The program is to be called "Speed Demons", since one of the main features is an early speed rating, which you saw on the last page.
We've got the main portion done...still more to come.

Anyhoo Steve sent what we have, so far...all on one interface, at least. So, I decide to check it out and see what's what and what else is needed.
The only reason I'm posting this is because the very first race I ran it-Finger Lakes 1st race...well I'll let you see the result:



This is just part of the opening screen-can't fit it all on this screen and still be legible-the "DES" or Demon Speed rating is seen on the end. There are several more ratings and numbers that come after the DES #.

Like I mentioned, we are in no hurry to complete this...we want it done right, before we think about releasing it. Possibly a month or so away. I just got excited about hitting the 1st play--couldn't help but post it.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

[Vinnie]

Like I mentioned, we are in no hurry to complete this...we want it done right, before we think about releasing it. Possibly a month or so away. I just got excited about hitting the 1st play--couldn't help but post it.

-NCG[/B][/QUOTE]

Exciting Stuff Greg!!! How about that? On the very first play to boot. Sounds like the prospect of that Demon Speed Rating hitting a lot of unusually high priced ponies hopefully for many years to come is going to be something very entertaining to watch going forward.

[ric4nier]

That's great Greg....keep us informed!

[NorCalGreg]

Add another low-paying pick-4 to the Parx tally:

[NorCalGreg]

I always like to see handicappers who aren't afraid to work at it. Programs, software, paper/pencil methods usually have something-somewhere that can be of use when making up a play.
I've found a lot of "nuggets" going through old systems...you probably have, too.

A gentleman recently purchased TRAINER MOVES , and immediately went to work finding out the strengths and weaknesses of the program.
I hate reading directions--so I just start a-pushin' on buttons, and see what they do. I only break out the instructions if I get stuck (which is often).
Well "Dan" studied the software for a few days, and is now actively making plays for Trainer Moves. I really respect someone willing to do the work necessary to win (and you still may not win)...but we discussed the fun it is to manipulate stats and numbers.
Here is something he sent today...it's pretty interesting. I predict big things, and success for Dan-in this most difficult game.
I'm sure he will be along for further talks and suggestions on his methods.

Dan...if you were standing right here I would shake your hand

Indiana Downs 2021 07 08 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves software

(Before scratches)

R01) #3 Clear Steps = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 3, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 88)
R02) None - Chaos = All Rejected (Majority First Time Starters)
R03) #4 Amongst … = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 86)
R04) #6 Justa Sim … = Accepted Rules 1, 2 (E2 Pace Figure is 83)
R05) #4 Bertie the … = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 60)
R06) #2 Cielo Azul = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 3, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 93)
R07) #6 Bernadette … = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 87)
R08) #2 Little Lucerito = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 84)
R09) #9 Forevernoa = Accepted Rules 1, 2, 3, 4 (E2 Pace Figure is 93)
R10) None = No E2 Pace Figures in TM software

Begin forwarded message:
Subject: Find the “Pace-Setter” using Trainer Moves
Date: July 8, 2021 at 6:43:10 AM PDT
To: "NorCalGreg@pace-view.net" <NorCalGreg@Pace-View.Net>

Greg, I intend to test this technique today (7/8/2021) at Indiana Grand. Feel free to modify or post this technique as you see appropriate.

My goal is to determine pace-setters and then watch the races to see if my selection is leading or close and the 2ND call. No bets, just a test. This technique has shades of Pizzola and his Fulcrum horse (just being honest). I just adapted it for easy to follow steps in Trainer Moves.

Of course, the nest logical step is to handicap a value-priced winner from the 2ND call to the finish line. If only this was easy.

I also have plans to map out the techniques and steps to identify a false favorite in a race using Trainer Moves software. It will have the same look and feel as the steps below.

DanH
---------------
Find the “Pace-Setter” using Trainer Moves

Trainer Moves > Select Race > Sort E2 Column > Open Top-Ranked E2 Horse PPs > Accept or Reject Top E2 Horse as Pace-Setter

> Accept Rules: (mandatory) 1) Top E2 Horse Last Race Competitive (< 4 lengths* behind at 2ND, STR, and FIN)
(mandatory) 2) Top E2 Horse Last Race is Recent (40 days or less*)
(optional) 3) Top E2 Horse HWIN% in top-third* of today’s field
(optional) 4) Top E2 Horse has E or EP (versatile) Running Style

> Reject Rules: If Top E2 horse is rejected by Accept Rules, then accept or reject next ranked horse in E2 column

> Stop Rules: Once a horse meets Accept Rules, treat as "pace-setter” - look no further

[Dan H]

I'm the Dan that Greg is talking about for this pace-setter exercise.

R01) #3 Clear Steps - Led at 2C - Legitimate Pace-Setter
R02) None ............. - PT Favorite led at 2C - Rejected as Pace-Setter Rule 1
R03) #4 Amongst ... - Led at 2C - Legitimate Pace-Setter
R04) #6 Justa Sim … - 2L back at 2C
R05) #4 Bertie the … - 2L back at 2C
R06) #2 Cielo Azul .. - 1/2L back at 2C
R07) #6 Bernadette . - 3L back at 2C
R08) #2 Little Luce .. - Scratched
R09) #9 Forevernoa
R10) None .............. - 300 YD Race

Here's the Run Rules for finding the pace-setter using Trainer Moves:

Trainer Moves > Select Race > Sort E2 Column > Open Top-Ranked E2 Horse PPs > Accept or Reject Top E2 Horse as Pace-Setter

> Accept Rules: ..... (mandatory) ... 1) Top E2 Horse Last Race Competitive (< 4 lengths* behind at 2ND, STR, and FIN)
.............................(mandatory) ... 2) Top E2 Horse Last Race is Recent (40 days or less*)
.............................(optional) ....... 3) Top E2 Horse HWIN% in top-third* of today’s field.
.............................(optional) ....... 4) Top E2 Horse has E or EP (versatile) Running Style
.............................(optional) ....... 5) User derived accept rule (like top-third TRWIN%)
.............................(optional) ....... 6) User derived accept rule (like top-third JOWIN%)

> Reject Rules: If Top E2 horse does not meet Accept Rules 1 and 2, then accept or reject next ranked horse in E2 column

> Stop Rules: Once a horse meets Accept rules, treat as “Pace-Setter” - look no further

> All Rejected: Treat race as chaos to 2ND call and seek other pace handicapping factors

Test Notes:

1. Too small of a sample size to draw conclusions.
2. Track was Sloppy and Off Turf.
3. Field sizes were small.
4. Results mere mostly a Chalk-fest.
5. While some pace-setters won, it is not a Winner Angle.
6. Do NOT blind bet pace-setters.
7. Only you can determine if there is any value to predicting pace-setters.

DanH

[NorCalGreg]

Are you looking for "pace-setters" as possible win bets? At all distances? Was trying to understand what exactly you were looking for, with this exercise?

I know early-speedsters do win route races...I simply eliminated routes, maidens, and turfsters, and took the highest dirt DES #.

I'll try again and see if we do as well this time.

This was all the less-than7F-dirt sprints I could find (poly is considered dirt in Ca--much like women are considered men and vis-versa)

APX
3RD VENETIAN DREAM 7-2

CTX
1ST RIP THORN 15-1
4TH VILLAMOURA 15-1
6TH CLUBBIN TIL DAWN 15-1

GPX
8TH BROTHER SATCHMO 10-1

WOX
6TH ALACRITOUS 8-1

btw: ML favs were eliminated from these

[Dan H]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Are you looking for "pace-setters" as possible win bets? At all distances? Was trying to understand what exactly you were looking for, with this exercise?

I am NOT looking for pace-setters as possible win bets. I am strictly using them to predict (with evidence) which horse has the potential to lead at the 2C (all distances). What is missing from this technique (and out of reach for me, so far) is what happens from the 2C to FIN. Which horses have the potential to overtake this pace-setter? Personally, I find value knowing which horse can lead at about 2/3 of the way in most races. Others may not.

Another reason for this exercise is to gauge the 2C pace figure listed in the TMoves software. For yesterday's exercise (though limited in depth), the pace figures in TMoves held water for my handicapping process.

Like Pizzola's Fulcrum Pace horse, you can choose to accept or reject the theory and carry on. Some handicappers believe these pace-setters (fulcrum) have value in place and show spots.

Here's a list of pace-setters for today.

I listed the exercise steps in Post # 7378 of this thread.

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

(Before scratches) (Not Spot Plays)

R01) #7 Straight to Go ...... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 4
R02) #3 Centsless Drama .. Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
R03) #1 Fast Loaded ......... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
R04) None ........................ Rejected two LRH, rest are FTS
R05) #10 Just Like Mike ..... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 4
R06) #5 Volata ................. Accepted by Rules 1, 2
R07) #7 My Destiny ........... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
R08) #3 Flamingo Hawk ..... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
R09) #9 Future Princess ..... Accepted by Rules 1, 2

LRH = Lightly Raced Horse(s)
FTS = First Time Starters

I will follow up with results at the end of the card.

DanH