*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Used to love handicapping all night...get my racing form, a pot of coffee and I would be in heaven. Handicapping til the sunlight came through the curtains.
I still enjoy it, but don't care for the daily 8-10 hour grind anymore. I look for spot plays, but let my software make most of the selections in the tournaments.
The best thing I can say is, the software is totally consistent--whereas I'm usually all over the place. This is where a decent horse betting program comes in. Consistency is absolutely vital to winning that's for sure.

I played the Power Picks from Trainer Moves...after checking for spot plays. The contest races were races 3 to 8.




The only race I didn't use-the 4th--I used my own pick from my horse watch. LOL he finished 3rd, and the TM pick ran 2nd, so I missed out on a $4 or $5 place payoff. I was lucky that didn't cost me.

-NCG

[green80]

Somebody tell me if my figures are correct but it looks like when you play on Derby Wars, like Greg's above example, you are looking at a 12.5% take whereas betting at the track you are up against about a 17% take on straight betting.

[sharkey11]

LOL i was thinking the very same thing . a better buy for sure green

[NorCalGreg]

Interesting VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD is favored in the DD...but dead on the tote board.

[hracingplyr]

finished 3rd at 14-1

Bob

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

Somebody tell me if my figures are correct but it looks like when you play on Derby Wars, like Greg's above example, you are looking at a 12.5% take whereas betting at the track you are up against about a 17% take on straight betting.

Actually, Mike...that was Horse Tourneys. Derby Wars seems to have fallen out of favor. Looking at their betting offerings--they just don't look as inviting as HT.

[green80]

I need to check out Horse Tourneys

[NorCalGreg]

I mentioned in the past I enjoy playing slot machines, everywhere except Indian Casinos. I have nothing at all against Native Americans--it's just that I've never won, or even seen anyone win big @ Indian Casinos.
The last time I was in Reno--I asked one of the slot repairmen if there was any difference between Indian and any other casino. He said Indian casinos aren't regulated by US Gaming Commission, they govern and regulate themselves.
Who knows what the slot payoffs are set to-when US Govt isn't making any rules for payoffs, as they do with every other casino in this country. I don't know if that is true, but I just don't play in those casinos.

Right now, all the gambling joints, the world over are hurting. I was offered a comped flight to Laughlin, Ariz staying at the Harrah's Hotel (also comped) for 5 days next week.

Shows how desperate the gambling joints are for ANYONE to come in and spend some money. It's obvious January is the worst month for corporations that depend on tourist gambling money and patronage. Most people don't have any extra money right now--so the casinos are flying people in and comping everything, just to get some warm bodies in their place.
Caesars Inc has taken over a multitude of casino/hotels like Harrah's, Harvey's, El Dorado, Legacy, Circus Circus, etc. They're all Caesars properties now.

Wish me luck!

-NCG

[Vinnie]

Tear em up Greg and even more importantly have an Awesome Time!!

[Jayhawk6191]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Interesting VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD is favored in the DD...but dead on the tote board.

Greg- with all due respect, your last column in the example is not technically odds, but rather $Dollars per ML Odds or a multiple of ML Odds. In order to assess the true Will Pay odds, you need to multiply each Will Pay by (1+track take) and then divide that number by $2N (N=# runners). In the example above the #1 is still the favorite at 7/2 and the #6 is 12-1 or more.


Its an interesting theory and I realize that it has produced winners. Good Luck.

[NorCalGreg]

Thank you for the feedback, Jayhawk (rock, chalk....Jayhawk!) only a Kansas man will know what that means.

I started producing this software with the sole purpose of saving the user hours of tedious handicapping "work". I found that I didn't need to be THAT meticulous in handicapping. Bris provides fine pace and speed figs, for my purposes--I don't need to pay for "better" numbers.

That goes along with the DD method I now use--if I can keep it less complicated, but still produce profit--I've succeeded. It does take some study, but everything involved in horse betting requires study.

I don't really have any other comments on this...but again, Jayhawk your input is appreciated

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Looking at GGF today, one horse appears on two spot-plays:

1ST DOGHOUSE 7/2

Now in the 2nd race don't know what to make of this one:

2ND TANNER'S PRIDE 7/2

Wired the field last out--then takes 3 months off and today drops in class. His numbers and speed are easily the best of this field...but how do you explain the class drop? I'll pass on that one for the DD, and instead take a shot with:

2ND CAJUN BETTOR 12-1

Also coming off a rest and working well, looks like a much better DD partner. Kyle Frey, who has 9 lifetime wins for Bill Mclean stays aboard.

- double, with a win bet on Cajun Bettor in the 2nd.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I mentioned in the past I enjoy playing slot machines, everywhere except Indian Casinos. I have nothing at all against Native Americans--it's just that I've never won, or even seen anyone win big @ Indian Casinos.
The last time I was in Reno--I asked one of the slot repairmen if there was any difference between Indian and any other casino. He said Indian casinos aren't regulated by US Gaming Commission, they govern and regulate themselves.
Who knows what the slot payoffs are set to-when US Govt isn't making any rules for payoffs, as they do with every other casino in this country. I don't know if that is true, but I just don't play in those casinos.

It's possible that what the slot repairman said was either misheard or he is misinformed.

It seems that the only "national" gaming commission IS this one: https://www.nigc.gov - the National Indian Gaming Commission. I don't know how many if any "return rate" parameters they set as part of their regulations.

As far as I know - the non-Indian casinos are each regulated by the gaming commission in the state they're in.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

It's possible that what the slot repairman said was either misheard or he is misinformed.

It seems that the only "national" gaming commission IS this one: https://www.nigc.gov - the National Indian Gaming Commission. I don't know how many if any "return rate" parameters they set as part of their regulations.

As far as I know - the non-Indian casinos are each regulated by the gaming commission in the state they're in.

Didn't take long to Google that question:

Do Indian Casinos have different payout rules?

Pretty much anything goes. However, most operate on par with the commercial casinos in their state. There is no minimum payback on Indian-property slot machines, but obviously people aren't going hang around a casino where no one is winning so they allegedly keep the payback at a decent level

[NorCalGreg]

Was wondering why I occasionally see entries on Horse Tourneys with NO selections. They paid their buy in, just never entered any selections...weird, huh?

Yesterday afternoon I entered the exacta box contest, and another win/place event at Charlestown. I filled out one of them okay, but CTX starts here on the west coast at 4 PM. I started getting hungry so took off for Taco Bell, completely forgetting about the other entry I had paid for but not filled in.
By the time I got back to my comp, when I saw this--I realized my mistake. Believe me...it's very easy to do.