DRF Speed Rating + Track Variant
I was rereading Stanley Caris' seven year old Triple Crown manual and this item caught my eye. Horses that finished 1st or 2nd without losing more than two lengths from the 3/4 pole with speed rating plus track variant of 103+ in a Big 5 prep (Wood, Blue, FL, SA, Ark) won 10 of the 20 Derby renewals used in the study. These types made up 19.2% of the starters ( 70 qualifiers of 364 starters) and 50% of the winners for an impact value of 2.60. Another 8 made the exacta and 7 additional hit the tri. That's filling the tri 25/60 or 41.6% of the time for an impact value of about 2.17. I don't have the more recent DRF PPs at my fingertips however have little reason to doubt these results have not held up in recent years.
Horses meeting the angle this year
Tacitus: 92/11 = 103
Omaha: 92/19 = 111
Improbable: 91/19 = 110
*By My Standards 94/12 = 106
*Spinoff: 93/12 = 105
*Cutting Humor: 102/03 = 105
**Country House: 85/19 = 104
*Not a Big 5 prep
**Finished 3rd
Horses just missing:
Roadster 102
Maximum Security 102
Tax 102
Game Winner 101
Vekoma 101
This suggests Omaha is a legit favorite and Improbable might be Bob's best shot unless you think the SA was a little out of the box. It would also support backers of the Louisiana horses provided the figures derived from questionable hand time are accurate and also bearing in mind the LA Derby was not considered in the study. Additionally, Tacitus is perhaps a more legit Wood contender than we've seen from previous winners. Further, Country House is a potential exotics clunker if his 3rd place Ark finish is ignored.
|