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Old 04-26-2019, 12:39 PM   #1
f2tornado
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DRF Speed Rating + Track Variant

I was rereading Stanley Caris' seven year old Triple Crown manual and this item caught my eye. Horses that finished 1st or 2nd without losing more than two lengths from the 3/4 pole with speed rating plus track variant of 103+ in a Big 5 prep (Wood, Blue, FL, SA, Ark) won 10 of the 20 Derby renewals used in the study. These types made up 19.2% of the starters ( 70 qualifiers of 364 starters) and 50% of the winners for an impact value of 2.60. Another 8 made the exacta and 7 additional hit the tri. That's filling the tri 25/60 or 41.6% of the time for an impact value of about 2.17. I don't have the more recent DRF PPs at my fingertips however have little reason to doubt these results have not held up in recent years.

Horses meeting the angle this year
Tacitus: 92/11 = 103
Omaha: 92/19 = 111
Improbable: 91/19 = 110

*By My Standards 94/12 = 106
*Spinoff: 93/12 = 105
*Cutting Humor: 102/03 = 105
**Country House: 85/19 = 104

*Not a Big 5 prep
**Finished 3rd

Horses just missing:
Roadster 102
Maximum Security 102
Tax 102
Game Winner 101
Vekoma 101

This suggests Omaha is a legit favorite and Improbable might be Bob's best shot unless you think the SA was a little out of the box. It would also support backers of the Louisiana horses provided the figures derived from questionable hand time are accurate and also bearing in mind the LA Derby was not considered in the study. Additionally, Tacitus is perhaps a more legit Wood contender than we've seen from previous winners. Further, Country House is a potential exotics clunker if his 3rd place Ark finish is ignored.
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:41 PM   #2
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Dated data . . .

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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
I was rereading Stanley Caris' seven year old Triple Crown manual and this item caught my eye.
I believe that data is no longer up to date.

If you don't already have it, review Roman's book. In the Appendix VII Article, Variants: The Achilles' Heel of Speed Figures he goes into the SR/DV subject matter in great detail . . .
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Old 04-26-2019, 03:19 PM   #3
f2tornado
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I believe that data is no longer up to date.
Roman had a different way of looking at performance and I do miss his work. His PF rating is a similar approach but not directly related to this one. I'm guessing the TimeformUS adjusted final 3/8th 9F prep figures would resemble Roman's 10f LQ which would favor those fitting the DRF angle.

The only change I'm aware of in the DRF rating is a change from correlating with track record speed to correlating to track top speed in past three years. This would obviously impact the dataset to some extent but the general results should still be fairly discriminating.
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Old 04-26-2019, 04:07 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Roman had a different way of looking at performance and I do miss his work. His PF rating is a similar approach but not directly related to this one. I'm guessing the TimeformUS adjusted final 3/8th 9F prep figures would resemble Roman's 10f LQ which would favor those fitting the DRF angle.

The only change I'm aware of in the DRF rating is a change from correlating with track record speed to correlating to track top speed in past three years. This would obviously impact the dataset to some extent but the general results should still be fairly discriminating.
That PF number is no longer published? It seemed very accurate.
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Old 04-26-2019, 04:21 PM   #5
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That PF number is no longer published? It seemed very accurate.
Nope. At least I am not aware of anyone picking up that mantle. Supposedly the chefs are being evaluated by successors.
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