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View Poll Results: Who wins HOY? Accelerate or Justify?
Accelerate wins HOY 119 42.35%
Justify wins HOY 162 57.65%
Voters: 281. This poll is closed

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Old 11-16-2018, 01:29 PM   #121
ronsmac
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The Big Cap and Gold Cup are shells of their former selves. The Big Cap used to be one of my favorite races but it's starting to resemble the Jockey Club Gold Cup these days. Grade ones in name only.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:36 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by devilsbag View Post
This debate has been going on for a long time. If the Horse of the Year is supposed to be the fastest horse (at a classic distance), the champion older male would win most of the time. Now, it does seem like the older male is typically under consideration or arguably its for him to lose, but voters have been fairly open to the idea that it's more subjective than that.

A prime example is Zenyatta in 2010. Blame was the fastest on the track, but no one expected 60 Minutes to do a segment on Blame and voters (partially as payback for 2009) saw Zenyatta as the horse who defined that year. Some have suggested that it's who is most memorable, and that may not be such a bad definition.

Fager Fan, I'm very sympathetic to your stance on certain trainers. However, would you vote for anyone other than Justify as the champion three-year-old male? I'm suspecting not. For Horse of the Year, I think you too see it being more subjective, and whether it's his fragility, his trainer, or whatever, he doesn't deserve the title. It's a gut feeling and you're entitled to it. On the flip side, hopefully you can see the argument that the Triple Crown is of such importance, the fact he was undefeated, and that he was able to overcome Mike Smith, that some people would feel that makes Justify horse of the year over a horse who had a middle to above average older male campaign.

I would probably vote for Justify and suspect he will win, but it's interesting to see how many people are opposed to him. My feeling is that the biggest reason for it is that people want to punish early retirement, and I understand that too. It's been pointed out that Seattle Slew and Affirmed didn't do much the remainder of the year after their Belmont wins and still were voted Horse of the Year, and worse yet, Slew beat Affirmed twice and still didn't get the honors because of the value placed on the Triple Crown win.
Hi Devils,

I was a kid and also not into racing in the 70s so I missed seeing those play out as they happened. I envisioned what a TC winner would feel like, what I believed I was seeing out there, and AP was at least close. Justify, not at all. Yes, he won 3 races that have that big title of TC, but it still felt to me that I was seeing just an above average horse beating average foes during this short stretch of time.

I don't believe any race or series of races is the end-all-be-all, and seeing a horse win the TC only confirms to me that it may not take a truly exceptional horse to win it but instead a very nice horse who met the right set of circumstances and competition. Real Quiet, remember, was a whisker from being a TC winner too, and although nice, not a truly exceptional horse. And we have to remember that the TC has been watered down now by the horses that skip legs and common ownership removing competitors from the fields. It used to be that if you had one of the best 3yos, then damnit, you ran in all 3 legs as long as your horse was standing on 4. Not anymore.

As it does for me in most years, I think the divisional awards are to reward the best in a division, and the HOY is for the BEST horse of the year. When appropriate (meaning not absolutely decided on the track and running on the same surface/distance) then I do envision the hypothetical. I think Accelerate beats him, and beats him easy had Justify been in the Classic.

So Accelerate is my HOY.

Last edited by Fager Fan; 11-16-2018 at 01:39 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:37 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by ronsmac View Post
The Big Cap and Gold Cup are shells of their former selves. The Big Cap used to be one of my favorite races but it's starting to resemble the Jockey Club Gold Cup these days. Grade ones in name only.
That's really true of the entire "Handicap" schedule.

The races that matter are the BC Classic and the Pegasus.

But the thing is, if you have a BC Classic winner who also has a great season in the handicap division, that's the benchmark for HOTY. Because those are unrestricted races.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:39 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...84075707523072


Excerpt:

“I might have missed it, but I haven't seen any story that pointed out that Accelerate, in winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, hit a major milestone--winning four Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt in a single year.

“Winning the Triple Crown is supposed to be one of the toughest achievements in horse racing, right ?

“Well, since the graded-race era began in 1973, there've been five Triple Crown winners.

“The number of horses that have won four Grade 1, mile and one-quarter races on dirt in a single year is only four.


“It might seem like a fairly unacknowledged accomplishment, but maybe it shouldn't be. Grade 1 races are the ultimate goal for any horse, and one mile and one-quarter on the dirt is still the classic distance in American racing and will remain so (because of the Kentucky Derby and the BC Classic) no matter how much money is thrown at turf races or nine-furlong dirt races (sorry Pegasus).

“Affirmed did it in 1979 winning the Strub, the Santa Anita Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup and the Woodward.

“Alysheba did it five times in 1988, opening his 4-year-old season with the Strub and the Big 'Cap and ending it with the Woodward, the Meadowlands Cup and the BC Classic.

“Cigar in 1995 won the Gulfstream Park Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic.

“And now Accelerate has joined the club.

“The list of top horses that ran in the graded-stakes era but didn't hit the magic number of four includes Alydar, Forego, Spectacular Bid, Easy Goer, John Henry, Sunday Silence, Holy Bull, A.P. Indy, Best Pal, Skip Away, Curlin, Ghostzapper and Tiznow as well as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and the two most recent Triple Crown winners.

“Looking back through the DRF Champions book, the only pre-graded stakes horses I could find that probably would have been credited with four Grade 1 10-furlong wins in a year were Gun Bow in 1964 (Strub, Gulfstream Park Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and Woodward) and Round Table in 1958 (SA Maturity, SA Handicap, Gulfstream Park Handicap and Woodward).

“Those that didn't make the list included Kelso, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Buckpasser, Sword Dancer, Bold Ruler, Swaps, Nashua, Citation and Seabiscuit.”

Interesting stats to chew on.
I agree with all of this.
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:21 PM   #125
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I agree with all of this.
It's actually not that compelling and more of a statistical acrobatic feat than anything else. A lot of those horses that 'failed' to win 4 Grade 1s at 10 furlongs didn't because they were busy winning races at 12, 13, and even 16 furlongs as 10 furlongs was only considered a middle distance...as it still is in Europe...then.

Would Forego or Buckpasser or Damascus have failed to win the JCGC or Woodward if those races were 10 furlongs back in the day?

John Henry won between 10-14 furlongs 7 times in 1980, 8 times in 1981, and 6 times in 1984; but Accelerate trumped him in 2018? Laughable.
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:29 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
It's actually not that compelling and more of a statistical acrobatic feat than anything else. A lot of those horses that 'failed' to win 4 Grade 1s at 10 furlongs didn't because they were busy winning races at 12, 13, and even 16 furlongs as 10 furlongs was only considered a middle distance...as it still is in Europe...then.

Would Forego or Buckpasser or Damascus have failed to win the JCGC or Woodward if those races were 10 furlongs back in the day?

John Henry won between 10-14 furlongs 7 times in 1980, 8 times in 1981, and 6 times in 1984; but Accelerate trumped him in 2018? Laughable.
Well John Henry had 4 great years. Very few horses do.

But there were plenty of 1 1/4 mile races back in the day, and horses ran more often. So it wasn't THAT hard to win 4 1 1/4 mile races. (For instance, while the JCGC wasn't 1 1/4 miles, Belmont often had a 1 1/4 mile race in the fall, whether it was the Woodward or the Marlboro. And the Suburban was a bigger deal back then, and was always 1 1/4 miles on or around July 4. The Gulfstream Park Handicap was a significant race at 1 1/4 miles too. And there were 1 1/4 mile turf races like the Arlington Million as well.)

Spalding, I will admit one thing. One of the reasons I really hate giving HOTY to Justify is I dislike what he represents. He didn't run as a 2 year old, ran 6 times, did just enough to get into the history books, and then was retired with a minor injury that should have never resulted in his retirement.

So yes, I want to punish the owners in any way possible. Accelerate had a year that I am sure you would concede would win HOTY in most years, so that's fine, he's a good vehicle. But I think Justify's owners are shameful.

I *don't* think Justify's injury was trumped up-- it is more like "almost all horses have minor injuries that could be used as an excuse to retire the horse if you can make $60 million, so they found one". And I don't think allegations of routine doping against Baffert have been proving. He is a great trainer who did a great job with Justify.

It's just that Justify, to me, represents everything that is wrong with horse racing. Do just enough to get stud value, and then retire and deny the public the opportunity to see him run. It sucks.
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Old 11-16-2018, 09:43 PM   #127
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Just to be clear, the proof against Baffert was the bodies of the 7 dead horses. Most trainers don’t have 1 in their entire career that drops inexplicably dead. Baffert had 7 in a short time frame, but not such a short time frame that it could be chalked up to contamination. Mind you, Baffert wasn’t the only one. There were other trainers in CA (and some on the East coast) who had horses dropping dead at the same time. There is only ONE thing that can explain this, and that’s that Baffert and some other trainers were experimenting with some illegal drug.

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.
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Old 11-16-2018, 10:20 PM   #128
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Just to be clear, the proof against Baffert was the bodies of the 7 dead horses. Most trainers don’t have 1 in their entire career that drops inexplicably dead. Baffert had 7 in a short time frame, but not such a short time frame that it could be chalked up to contamination. Mind you, Baffert wasn’t the only one. There were other trainers in CA (and some on the East coast) who had horses dropping dead at the same time. There is only ONE thing that can explain this, and that’s that Baffert and some other trainers were experimenting with some illegal drug.

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.
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Old 11-17-2018, 01:35 AM   #129
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Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.
Not true.

Here is a quote from the latest annual post mortem examination report (for the fiscal year 2016-2017) published by the CHRB last month:

The number of unexplained sudden deaths in horses remains relatively high with 12 cases reported during this period.

Meanwhile, according to the the New York Gaming Commission's Equine Incident Database, in the last 6 weeks there have been 5 equine fatalities designated as either "collapsed", "collapsed and died", or "died after finishline-possible aneurysm" at NYRA tracks...
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Old 11-17-2018, 08:20 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Not true.

Here is a quote from the latest annual post mortem examination report (for the fiscal year 2016-2017) published by the CHRB last month:

The number of unexplained sudden deaths in horses remains relatively high with 12 cases reported during this period.

Meanwhile, according to the the New York Gaming Commission's Equine Incident Database, in the last 6 weeks there have been 5 equine fatalities designated as either "collapsed", "collapsed and died", or "died after finishline-possible aneurysm" at NYRA tracks...
At a certain point their bodies can't take it anymore and they fall apart IMO. Hopefully they're retired before they drop dead but this is and has been a big problem IMO
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Old 11-17-2018, 03:54 PM   #131
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Just to be clear, the proof against Baffert was the bodies of the 7 dead horses. Most trainers don’t have 1 in their entire career that drops inexplicably dead. Baffert had 7 in a short time frame, but not such a short time frame that it could be chalked up to contamination. Mind you, Baffert wasn’t the only one. There were other trainers in CA (and some on the East coast) who had horses dropping dead at the same time. There is only ONE thing that can explain this, and that’s that Baffert and some other trainers were experimenting with some illegal drug.

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.
when in rome, do as the romans.
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Old 11-18-2018, 09:18 AM   #132
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This is from an article just written last month:

From data collected between 2007 and 2013 in California, approximately one sudden death occurred per 9,000 starts, and about one sudden death per 160,000 training days.

So let that stat sink in and consider:

Between 2011 and 2013, seven Bob Baffert trained horses died suddenly during training. A subsequent CHRB report noted that the horses had been administered thyroxine–a thyroid hormone used to treat hypothyroid conditions–and that use of thyroxine is “concerning in horses with suspected cardiac failure.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...nd-still-dont/

And for those who want or need a reminder from when this occurred:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/s...en-deaths.html
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Old 11-18-2018, 10:30 AM   #133
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This is from an article just written last month:

From data collected between 2007 and 2013 in California, approximately one sudden death occurred per 9,000 starts, and about one sudden death per 160,000 training days.

So let that stat sink in and consider:

Between 2011 and 2013, seven Bob Baffert trained horses died suddenly during training. A subsequent CHRB report noted that the horses had been administered thyroxine–a thyroid hormone used to treat hypothyroid conditions–and that use of thyroxine is “concerning in horses with suspected cardiac failure.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...nd-still-dont/

And for those who want or need a reminder from when this occurred:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/s...en-deaths.html
whatever baffert is doing, does he have some kind of patent on it so no one else can do the same thing?
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:05 PM   #134
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Old 11-21-2018, 06:42 PM   #135
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I'll take Justify by ko in the 4th round.
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