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Old 07-20-2018, 03:56 PM   #16
Tom
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I find a lot of horses with big advantages in E2 that are not early types often have most of that advantage left over on the walk back to the barns.
I love those races where a P horse will show he run about a 92-93-94 E2 most of the time, then in the last race he will show a 115 E2 will 6 lengths back.

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Old 07-20-2018, 04:31 PM   #17
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I find a lot of horses with big advantages in E2 that are not early types often have most of that advantage left over on the walk back to the barns.


Great quote.
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:39 PM   #18
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Yup, slow FR1 really does little for FR2.

FR2 is tricky. Top ranked FR1 and FR2 are usually strong favs so there is little value there.

What I do like is a P horse with strong FR2 when the pace comes up slow, they tend to be a little closer than normal to the lead and can use that FR2 to get a lead into the stretch, usually a winning move on dirt.

I think I used that angle to hit the first race at Sar today.
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Old 07-20-2018, 06:08 PM   #19
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That is where I like a P horse - with a top Presser rating - F2 + E2.
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Old 07-20-2018, 10:48 PM   #20
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Good point. And many times the horse with a great LP is not really a closer at all nor does he/she have the ability to close.

For "quick handicapping" I frequently look at the "Late Pace Last Race" category in the Ultimate PP's which I get for free on TS. I look for a strong closer for either exacta key horse betting or show betting at a price. I especially look to see if the Top LP horse has a significant point separation from the rest of the pack.
What's winning at Del Mar?
I have 16 races - the first two days so far.

LP Last Race -
10 of 16 were ranked 1-2-3

Ever look at Rcg Spd Avg?
#1 won 8 of 16!
1-2 won 11 of 16
1-2-3 won 12 of 16
1-2-3-4 won 13 of 16
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Old 07-20-2018, 10:52 PM   #21
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Del Mar so far is F, E, P and wide moves. Inside is not the place to be. Turf is the one that seems very biased against closers to me.
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Old 07-21-2018, 07:17 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
What's winning at Del Mar?
I have 16 races - the first two days so far.

LP Last Race -
10 of 16 were ranked 1-2-3

Ever look at Rcg Spd Avg?
#1 won 8 of 16!
1-2 won 11 of 16
1-2-3 won 12 of 16
1-2-3-4 won 13 of 16
Good data Tom. How does that LP ranking breakdown on Turf sprints vs. Tf routes? If you have it. I've used ol' Wm Scott's gain of five as an angle to consider in Turf routes.
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Old 07-21-2018, 08:33 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
What's winning at Del Mar?
I have 16 races - the first two days so far.

LP Last Race -
10 of 16 were ranked 1-2-3

Ever look at Rcg Spd Avg?
#1 won 8 of 16!
1-2 won 11 of 16
1-2-3 won 12 of 16
1-2-3-4 won 13 of 16
Not only do I look at Rcg Spd Avg, but I recalculate (mutilate?) it as necessary. It averages the last 3 races, but sometimes there's a race in that 3 that needs to have a line drawn through it for whatever reason. So I recalculate using the next available clean race.

I look at the LP Last Race as well, but the LP figure that I actually use (especially for turf) comes from the Avg Dist/Surf PACE-SPEED column in the Race Summary section.

Last edited by Mulerider; 07-21-2018 at 08:35 AM.
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Old 07-21-2018, 10:26 AM   #24
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I will be doing Toga, too.
Updating this afternoon.

This going to turn into a Dave Schwartz work in progress.

Here is what I have so far.
Attached Files
File Type: xls Dmr_Track_Model.xls (30.0 KB, 52 views)
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Last edited by Tom; 07-21-2018 at 10:28 AM.
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:06 PM   #25
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Question - I think the Pace Pressure numbers are wrong. I used QSP of 6 for E or EP horses, should have been 5. Anyone remember what the other number was? Like, 21/3 is that 3 E horse with 5 points, or 3 E or EP horse with 5 points?

The QP6 column is the number of horses in the rce who have 6 or more speed points.

Thanks
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:41 PM   #26
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If you're talking about Giles' PP gauge then it's the number of one-dimensional early pace runners. In your example, 3 E horses.
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:53 PM   #27
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Thanks - I thought is was just the Es.
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:53 PM   #28
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The first # is the total speed points for E, E/P, and P horses with 5 or more speed points. The second is the # of E horses with 5 or more speed points.
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Old 07-25-2018, 10:37 AM   #29
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I will be doing Toga, too.
Updating this afternoon.

This going to turn into a Dave Schwartz work in progress.

Here is what I have so far.
Updated 7/25 - first full week at Dmr.
I corrected the pace pressure column.

Be aware. lots of ties, so a 3 ranking might include 5 horses.
But still, some definite key factors in there.
Attached Files
File Type: xls Dmr_Track_Model.xls (57.5 KB, 12 views)
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