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Old 06-17-2018, 01:02 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
I agree the odds-on types are pointless, but you should be willing to look beyond the 15/1 limit, you might have caught Sonneteer this year and the ill-fated Irap last year.
Yea, I mean its a race by race determination, just saying that having hopeless horses in the sample dilutes what has been a great angle (dirt, stakes, shippers from socal) the past few years.

The opposite is true on grass, just bet anything shipping in (also in this one trainer changes) to socal.
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Old 06-17-2018, 01:11 AM   #47
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I havent seen the number.

Baffert really has somewhat a weak bench other than the horses that ran on Belmont day.

He does not top class sprinters this year, and his other 3yo's are the same crew that were weak 2 year olds last season.
Dr. Dorr seems to be a versatile sort, who's probably better off shortening back up than continuing on with the major route races.

Not sure what the time table is for McKinzie, but he's got the requisite talent to be a major player up to at least a mile.

Baffert also has one tomorrow at Santa Anita named Lookie Loo who is slowly going through his conditions.

Another sharp 3yo debut winner was Explorer (by Orb). Perhaps that one or There And Back or both will target the Allen Jerkens.
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Old 06-23-2018, 03:22 AM   #48
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I am sure the theory is wrong, I will just continue to bet the shippers....and collect.

I will continue to bet the turfers coming west, either through straight ships or through barn changes.....and collect.

thx
You and Tom are right. I've seen it long enough I agree. Been playing since 1996. I am very impressed with the memory recall and stats other posters are putting up but it's just to make an argument for the exercise. I'm not perturbed by their self anointed genius either. These 2 realities translate to bets worth making and cashing.
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Old 06-23-2018, 06:23 PM   #49
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I didnt bet him with the odds that low, and he was probably 4 lengths best with the trips, but Core Beliefs wins at 5/2 for 500k in Ohio.

I thought the pace would be an issue but the field was just really bad, and Lone Sailor should always be bet against.
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Old 06-24-2018, 09:09 PM   #50
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Storm the Hill on the massive class drop for $20 at SA, and IMO a trainer upgrade to the best turf trainer in socal now~~~~~just bet the grass shippers (though this one had prior socal experience)
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Old 07-14-2018, 10:59 PM   #51
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Axelrod 12/1. SA to Indiana Grand.

Been profitable playing against that Easy Goer race as well. Have no idea how Dark Vader was 3/1.
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Old 07-17-2018, 08:31 PM   #52
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Speaking of Baffert - he scored again at LA with the longest odds of a uncoupled entry (6-1). He's uncanny with that move
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Old 07-18-2018, 10:36 AM   #53
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Speaking of Baffert - he scored again at LA with the longest odds of a uncoupled entry (6-1). He's uncanny with that move
I've noticed the same with Chad Brown on mile plus turf events provided a top rider is on board. It's gotten to the point where I almost automatically throw either trainer's "other" horse with a solid pilot on top my gimmick plays regardless of previous speed figures.
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