Creative Engagement

[HUSKER55]

if you develop a system that works for you and you monitor it, after awhile you are going to find weak spots. that is the whole purpose of keeping records. As our abilities grows so does our awareness. even still, I don't think anyone should be making changes on a weekly basis.

some of us are still learning how to write decent formulas. I don't think that should qualify as changing your method.

but if you try something for six month as it still is not pulling its weight then it is time to do something

but that is just me

[Capper Al]

The catch is that there is always more and better ways to analysis races. When I'm winning, I enjoy the moment. Most of my tweaking occurs during a losing streak. And why not? It seems to work for me. I ride the wave longer and longer with most iterations.

[raybo]

Come on guys, "tweaking" your method is not "jumping from one set of numbers to another set". Tweaking is a necessary part of evolution, the philosophy behind the method can be the same, you just end up on a few different horses.

By "jumping" I meant from one method to another.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

I had heard it once that the average method for most players only last a few days or maybe a week. I totally agree with the loss of confidence stated by Thask. It is like trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle, finding the borders and corners is the easy part, it when we dig into the meat of the puzzle the we can get lost and be constantly looking for that better way.

Exactly, "lost"!

[raybo]

Just ask any RS user how many versions of the program we have gone through. They are all based on the same philosophy, but have been tweaked.

[dlgreg]

Originally Posted by raybo

Just ask any RS user how many versions of the program we have gone through. They are all based on the same philosophy, but have been tweaked.

I've only been a user of AllData RS since the latter part of December.
We've gone thru many improvements in that short time. Call them tweaks, enhancements or whatever; the bottom line is the program is better today than it was before. I can envision continued improvements in the future to stay profitable and ahead of "the crowd".
dlgreg

[raybo]

Right, imagine how many there were before you became a user, almost 2 years of "tweaks". And that's not even the most important part, that being that we update our databases daily, adding the new card and deleting the oldest one. This is the best "tweak" that is made, keeping what your selections are based on, for the most part, up to date with what has been happening in the past 4-5 weeks of the meet. This is what I really meant by "evolution", as things change gradually, your method should also change gradually. Of course, in my opinion.

[thaskalos]

I did not mean to cause a problem with my use of the word "tweak"...and I have nothing against improving our existing methods. I try to do that in my own play as well.

This is what I mean by negative "tweaking":

A player has created a handicapping approach...and has backtested it to a point where he feels comfortable using it with real money. The method starts off very well...and the player is coasting along earning a ROI of 1.50 for a month or two. Confidence is high...and all is well.

Alas...things begin to change, and the method starts losing. After a prolonged negative downturn, followed by an equally long break-even period, the method is showing a ROI of 1.12 after 6 months.

Our player, not realizing that peaks and valleys are the very nature of our game, thinks that there is something WRONG with his method of play...and it needs some "tweaking" -- or should even be overhauled completely. He thinks that the general trend of a bankroll should be UP...and that the prolonged downturns are the result of something going wrong. He gives up on a winning method of play...simply because the method will not comply with his unrealistic expectations.

I have seen this scenario play out in my own game...as well as the game of every other horseplayer that I have been acquainted with.

My conclusion:

We all experience periods when our ROI is 1.50+...and all is well with the world. But this is only a temporary occurrance...and things are sure to even out somewhere down the line. Losings streaks are the nature of the game...and they don't necessarily mean that something is wrong...or that something needs to be "tweaked".

Our results will fluctuate greatly in this game...and losing -- and winning -- streaks are the means by which these fluctuations occur. There is nothing abnormal about them.

If I have confidence in my handicapping methods, and I am a veteran of many gambling wars...then how flustered can I afford to be by an upcoming losing streak? Why should I tweak my methods?

Is it because I believe that my "tweaking" will eventually lead to a method that performes "consistently" over time?

I gave up on that idea a long time ago. There is no "consistency" in this game.

In fact...inconsistency and uncertainty are the serious horseplayer's constant companions.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I did not mean to cause a problem with my use of the word "tweak"...and I have nothing against improving our existing methods. I try to do that in my own play as well.

This is what I mean by negative "tweaking":

A player has created a handicapping approach...and has backtested it to a point where he feels comfortable using it with real money. The method starts off very well...and the player is coasting along earning a ROI of 1.50 for a month or two. Confidence is high...and all is well.

Alas...things begin to change, and the method starts losing. After a prolonged negative downturn, followed by an equally long break-even period, the method is showing a ROI of 1.12 after 6 months.

Our player, not realizing that peaks and valleys are the very nature of our game, thinks that there is something WRONG with his method of play...and it needs some "tweaking" -- or should even be overhauled completely. He thinks that the general trend of a bankroll should be UP...and that the prolonged downturns are the result of something going wrong. He gives up on a winning method of play...simply because the method will not comply with his unrealistic expectations.

I have seen this scenario play out in my own game...as well as the game of every other horseplayer that I have been acquainted with.

My conclusion:

We all experience periods when our ROI is 1.50+...and all is well with the world. But this is only a temporary occurrance...and things are sure to even out somewhere down the line. Losings streaks are the nature of the game...and they don't necessarily mean that something is wrong...or that something needs to be "tweaked".

Our results will fluctuate greatly in this game...and losing -- and winning -- streaks are the means by which these fluctuations occur. There is nothing abnormal about them.

If I have confidence in my handicapping methods, and I am a veteran of many gambling wars...then how flustered can I afford to be by an upcoming losing streak? Why should I tweak my methods?

Is it because I believe that my "tweaking" will eventually lead to a method that performes "consistently" over time?

I gave up on that idea a long time ago. There is no "consistency" in this game.

In fact...inconsistency and uncertainty are the serious horseplayer's constant companions.

Completely agree!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm coming into the homestretch of my 2 year "Journal" of playing days(120 pages under wraps)tweaking methods of play as I go along.Developing others from things I've read or things I've missed.The 3 together painting a clear picture.It seems that every 365 days I am,you are,a little bit or even a lot better/smarter than the preceding 365.The cool thing to me is,this journal I am undertaking,which I thought would simply be a posthumous,sentimental recollection to cherish at a later date,is starting to resemble an NFL Offensive Coordinator's playbook.I'm friggin gettin jacked up and excited about what the rest of this year holds in store!I dont know why I didn't do this a lot sooner.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I'm coming into the homestretch of my 2 year "Journal" of playing days(120 pages under wraps)tweaking methods of play as I go along.Developing others from things I've read or things I've missed.The 3 together painting a clear picture.It seems that every 365 days I am,you are,a little bit or even a lot better/smarter than the preceding 365.The cool thing to me is,this journal I am undertaking,which I thought would simply be a posthumous,sentimental recollection to cherish at a later date,is starting to resemble an NFL Offensive Coordinator's playbook.I'm friggin gettin jacked up and excited about what the rest of this year holds in store!I dont know why I didn't do this a lot sooner.

My journal is in my app's code.