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Old 10-04-2018, 12:09 PM   #16
bobphilo
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It all depends on what you will accept in terms of probable pays. I personally try to find the most likely winners since payoffs are irrelevant if you don't win. Plus I just like to win as long as the odds are acceptable, which may include the favorite. If my picks won't yield an acceptable payoff I simply don't bet.
In terms of how widely I spread my bet. I usually try to limit it to 2 horses in one race with 3 in the other. Of course I may deviate from this depending on the probables and difficulty of the races. For example: with the Kentucky Derby where the payoffs are larger, I will cast a wider net.

Good luck whatever strategy you use.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-04-2018 at 12:22 PM.
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Old 10-04-2018, 01:47 PM   #17
Light
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You should first consider what your mathematical probability of hitting a double is. Statistically the top 4 betting choices or the top 4 Bris PP horses win approx 75% of the time.

So if you play the top 4 chalk or Bris PP horses your odds of hitting the double is 75% x 75% = only 56%. On a $1 base the cost is $16 for 4x4 in both halves of the double and if its chalky it may only pay $12 if the top 2 betting horses dominate each half of the double.

And then there's the scenario of winning the first half with your 3rd or 4th choices at double digits only to see it swallowed up by an even longer shot in the 2nd half, the 25% statistic.

Betting only the two favorites is a bad choice in doubles because favorites win only 35% of the time. That means the chances of 2 favorites winning both halves of the double is only .35 x .35 = 12%.

So the strategy I have been fooling with from a mechanical black box style (based on the statistics) is to take the top 4 in both halves of the double,then take a subset of them. In other words weed out at least 1 or preferably 2 horses from both halves of the double. In some cases it's pretty easy to weed them out so your ticket costs may be only $4 to $9. This way if you lose, statistically you will profit in the end if you bring your costs down. Of course your ability to 'weed" horses out will determine your success.

Again I use statistics to do the further weeding. A horse may be statistically in the top 4 chalk but that horse's chances of winning may actually be higher coming into the race due form changes such as going from a good trainer or jockey to a bad one.

You should also be aware that statistics can make biased runs. So don't be discouraged. Even though the 2 favorites win only 12% of the time in doubles , you may have several doubles in a row where the favorite dominates both halves. That's like coin flips which are 50% either way. You can get 10 heads in a row but in the long run the statistic will hold up.
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Old 10-04-2018, 02:02 PM   #18
rubicon55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Light View Post
You should first consider what your mathematical probability of hitting a double is. Statistically the top 4 betting choices or the top 4 Bris PP horses win approx 75% of the time.

So if you play the top 4 chalk or Bris PP horses your odds of hitting the double is 75% x 75% = only 56%. On a $1 base the cost is $16 for 4x4 in both halves of the double and if its chalky it may only pay $12 if the top 2 betting horses dominate each half of the double.

And then there's the scenario of winning the first half with your 3rd or 4th choices at double digits only to see it swallowed up by an even longer shot in the 2nd half, the 25% statistic.

Betting only the two favorites is a bad choice in doubles because favorites win only 35% of the time. That means the chances of 2 favorites winning both halves of the double is only .35 x .35 = 12%.

So the strategy I have been fooling with from a mechanical black box style (based on the statistics) is to take the top 4 in both halves of the double,then take a subset of them. In other words weed out at least 1 or preferably 2 horses from both halves of the double. In some cases it's pretty easy to weed them out so your ticket costs may be only $4 to $9. This way if you lose, statistically you will profit in the end if you bring your costs down. Of course your ability to 'weed" horses out will determine your success.

Again I use statistics to do the further weeding. A horse may be statistically in the top 4 chalk but that horse's chances of winning may actually be higher coming into the race due form changes such as going from a good trainer or jockey to a bad one.

You should also be aware that statistics can make biased runs. So don't be discouraged. Even though the 2 favorites win only 12% of the time in doubles , you may have several doubles in a row where the favorite dominates both halves. That's like coin flips which are 50% either way. You can get 10 heads in a row but in the long run the statistic will hold up.
Thank you for your input. Lowering the cost of the double was my goal thus increasing my ROI. Your response is useful. Thanks.
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Old 10-04-2018, 05:24 PM   #19
castaway01
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If there's a horse I like and there's a heavy favorite in the next race of the double:

1) If I don't like the favorite and see an upset, this is best case scenario, toss the chalk and bet heavily on my horse in the first leg with horses I do like in the second leg.

2) If I think the favorite has a good chance but don't love it, I'm probably passing the double and betting my horse in the first leg another way.

3) If I think the favorite is a lock, if the projected double payoffs are worthwhile, I might bet the double with just my horse and then the favorite heavily, to make something out of a "free square" plus my decent-odds horse. Sometimes a win bet makes more sense though, depends on the prices.


From my experience, I agree the double doesn't support savers in the way you mean, EXCEPT if I'm alive to a nice payoff (this is all relative but let's say I hit the first leg and all my doubles in the second leg are paying $100 and up) I might bet some exactas with the favorite on top just to be sure I at least get my money back. Of course this is technically and mathematically wrong, but it helps at times to have insanity insurance.
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Old 10-04-2018, 06:26 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
If there's a horse I like and there's a heavy favorite in the next race of the double:

1) If I don't like the favorite and see an upset, this is best case scenario, toss the chalk and bet heavily on my horse in the first leg with horses I do like in the second leg.

2) If I think the favorite has a good chance but don't love it, I'm probably passing the double and betting my horse in the first leg another way.

3) If I think the favorite is a lock, if the projected double payoffs are worthwhile, I might bet the double with just my horse and then the favorite heavily, to make something out of a "free square" plus my decent-odds horse. Sometimes a win bet makes more sense though, depends on the prices.


From my experience, I agree the double doesn't support savers in the way you mean, EXCEPT if I'm alive to a nice payoff (this is all relative but let's say I hit the first leg and all my doubles in the second leg are paying $100 and up) I might bet some exactas with the favorite on top just to be sure I at least get my money back. Of course this is technically and mathematically wrong, but it helps at times to have insanity insurance.
Thanks Castaway, yes I do something similar in that if I hit big in the first leg I will sometimes hedge my bet with other potential horses that I did not have in the second leg just in case the race shape totally collapses. Also too many times in the past that first leg longshot does not hookup with my second leg so these days I place win money on the longshot(s) so at least I can recoup and at least in those cases I won't have to say "gee I shoulda bet that longshot...".
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