TOTAL VICTORY AT THE TRACK: The Promise and the Performance

[JohnGalt1]

I want to correct my post.

The race I was referring to was the 7th. The Bris pp's for race 7 were on top of my stack. The example was for Joking the 3 horse.

[JohnGalt1]

I wanted to follow up with Saturday's starter allowance stakes races at Aqueduct.

In Scott's first book, he bet the horse with the best ability from only the top 3 betting choices, since about 67% of winners come from the 3 favorites.

In Total Victory he replaced limiting selections to the 3 favorites to using the top 3 Performance Class Ratings. Some exceptions were fasted horse in a sprint with no form defects, or higher class races in in past races.

As I mentioned I believe PCR's work the best in starter allowance races.

I only bet 4 races, with one win. The day was mostly chalky, thus limiting my bets

I want to review only PCR's for the 10 race card. When races have 6 or fewer starters I limit to the top 2 PCR. Scott used a 7.5% spread to include a 4th horse (or 5th or more).

I will list the how many PCR horses, and if one of them won.

1--2 yes
2--3 yes

[JohnGalt1]

I don't know what happened.

I did not hit submit reply, then I tried to edit and it didn't take

I should've done what I'm going to do now.

To continue--

3--2 yes
4--3 yes
5--4 yes
6--3 yes
7--8 yes 2nd through 8 top too close to separate
8--3 NO
9--4 yes
10 3 NO

I believe PCR's are best in starter allowance races since class is of prime importance.

I don't see the top 3 PCR horses do this well for a whole card all the time, but since I usually play only 2-5 races per track, and sometimes none, I can wait for the "right' race to play.

I did not play pick 3's, 4's, or 5, because I don't play them if too many odds on horses look like winners, but if one played the pick 5 with all top PCR horses, the bet would've cost $20 and returned $127.

I wish I remembered what else I wrote, I'm sure it was insightful.

[Pensacola Pete]

Originally Posted by Actor

I've tried writing software based on Scott's books and found his descriptions just too vague. .

There's a reason for that. Scott wrote a general system that had some logic, found a set of races that it worked fairly well on, then added a bunch of odd rules to backfit the races used to get more winners. He then wrote his book and used the example races. Sometimes, he'd even explain that he was making an exception to his rules when choosing a horse.

For an example, make the year 1980, before the internet existed for more than 1% of the population). I want to write a book about handicapping. I find a race card in which 6 of the 8 winners had the best last-race speed rating. As it happened, the two races that didn't have the best speed rating were also the two MSW races on that card. In those two races, the horse with the best workout in the past 30 days won. I now publish a book with the "Making a Good Living at the Track" by "Wilhelm Scoot". It has these two rules, which are expounded on to no end in flowery prose and discussed at length as to why they work so well.

1) Play the horse with the best last race speed rating, except in MSW races.

2) In MSW races, play the horse with the best workout in the last 30 days.

Then, I spend 40 pages, using the given race card, reassure the reader that the system is infallible, as proven by winning every race, and pat myself on the back until I have to visit a clinic to be treated for an injured wrist.

Since both "rules" are based, to some degree, on logic, and since the internet isn't in use for the vast majority of people yet, and I can't be quickly debunked, I can get away with this fabrication. Some of my readers are going do do very well with that system for a while. It will pick mostly short-priced horses, and it will get its share of winners. It will also lose money in the long run, but in the meanwhile, it will also get some nice word-of-mouth praise from those who were lucky enough to hit a lot of winners with it.

[upthecreek]

Looking to make a trade for a copy.preferably the paperback version Anybody interested send me a PM or post here
Thanks