PA Hall of fame nominee.
Join Date: Oct 2009
Great thread, just got around to reading it, i read every post in the first 20 pages, let me try and respond the best i can to some of the stuff i read in there.
1) Post 54, SG asking for proof of expertise.
This was obviously answered pretty well, but i believe that this thread was created to teach people to fish rather than catching a fish and handing it to them.
2) Lambo's Mother saying "those that tell dont know and those that know dont tell".
While there are plenty of people who really know something valuable that won't say a word, and there are plenty of people who don't know as much that are really forthcoming with info, there are people out there who are incredibly smart and have something of substance to add that do volunteer that info. I think many quality horseplayers love to share ideas with other quality horseplayers, even if they have to give up some of their most juicy tidbits. Maybe its ego, who knows, but there are some of the sharpest players in the game who are giving up some of their best stuff for free. This quote is true to a certain extent, but not always.
3) It takes more than mere handicapping and betting knowledge to do well i this game. (from post 81)
This is one of the truest things said in this thread that i've read. The mental fortitude that a person needs to fight thru the pitfalls of this game is something that very few people possess. Sure, being 'mentally tough' can be learned over many years, but its almost as if you have to be born with some kind of 'iron constitution' . I know personally that for many years, well over a decade, i wasnt able to handle the beats, they were just too tough for me emotionally, i wasnt able to just shrug them off and turn the page. They're still tough for me, the nose bobs and the DQs, but not nearly as emotionally distressing as they used to be.
Maybe its experience and having gone thru so many bad beats and DQs that at some point you just get 'numb' to the situation and it doesnt hurt as much? I wish i knew. I think that as of this writing, it takes me a few hours to 'get over' a horrendous beat. I take a few hours to clear my head before i crack open the PPs for the next day. Back in the day, i wasnt able to pull that off. I can't exactly explain how i 'learned' to handle the pressure and emotion of the game, but i feel i've gotten better at it, but it did take a very long time and a lot of pain to get to this point.
4) Greyfox post 138, visualising how the race unfolds.
To me, this is everything. I don't ever bet a race unless i have a good idea to figure out how this race is going to shape up. Obviously, i'm wrong quite a lot, but if i'm right, i usually have placed my wagers in a better position than just haphazardly selecting a runner and hoping the race unfolds for him. A lot of spending hours watching tapes is to figure out the style of each horse and try and predict, the best you can, what might happen when those gates open. I put a ton of emphasis in this in my handicapping.
Since horseplayers have gotten smarter as well as owners and trainers, its really tricky to predict 'speed duels' and such because if you know that so and so is 'lone speed' so do the connections of all the other runners. Can those connections 'alter' what might happen on paper because they saw the same things that i saw? Absolutely, and i have to factor this into my handicap. (especially at the boutique meets where owners and trainers are in the paddock all the time giving out instructions more so than they do at any other time)
I think that watching hours and hours of tape, you can learn the little nuances of racehorses styles, how the jock rides them, how they switch leads, do they switch leads properly on the backstretch, how they gallop out and just the overall personality of the horse as well as the form cycle that horse is currently enjoying. Lots to it, but extensive video research can lead to having a better idea at how a race will shape up. You can find the handy quick types, the speedballs who 'run off' with the jock, the slow grinders who cant get out of their own way and all this can be used to piece the puzzle togther (and then pray!)
5) Thas, "difficult game to beat" post 269.
Thas was taking another poster to task for insinuating/hinting/saying that this game is anything less than the hardest game on earth. Any little gleam in any posters post that says otherwise is a disservice to the process. I look at this a little differently than most people might look at it. I actually like that the game is incredibly difficult to beat. Ask yourself this...is there really any game or 'competition' on earth that's easy to beat that can lead to great riches? They say the hardest trophy in sports to win is the Stanley Cup. Im not sure how many of you follow the NHL (im a big fan, i follow it closely) but the price those players have to pay to win that Stanley Cup is a price that almost none of us mortals would be willing to pay, yet, the price is so steep that the reward becomes so great. Winning the Cup wouldnt be nearly as exciting if it was easy to win...the same with horse race betting.
Making a huge score in horse racing is equivalent to winning your own 'stanley cup' and the difficulty to accomplish that feat makes it that much more rewarding, financially and otherwise.
Would it be great if the game was somewhat easy and could reap large financial benefits? Absolutely, but if the game was easy, many more bettors would win and then by definition, the large financial incentives wouldnt be there for the very best players, they would be split up amongst every Tom, Dick and Harry who showed up that day.
Last edited by Stillriledup : 08-21-2012 at 01:55 AM.