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05-24-2016, 02:59 PM
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#1
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,626
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Trump now LEADS in the RCP average of polls...insane!
The Donald was down double digits only four or five weeks ago.
Now he's AHEAD? In the REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of polls?
Wow.
The Hillary supporters and anti-Trumpets heads must be going nuclear trying to comprehend how he was able to make up such vast ground in such a short period of time.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html
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05-24-2016, 03:37 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
The Donald was down double digits only four or five weeks ago.
Now he's AHEAD? In the REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of polls?
Wow.
The Hillary supporters and anti-Trumpets heads must be going nuclear trying to comprehend how he was able to make up such vast ground in such a short period of time.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html |
I explained all this in the Hillary Clinton thread. In case you missed it, here it is again.
Meaningless.
First, it is within the margin of error.
Second, Trump got a boost because he is now the presumptive nominee on the Republican side. Hillary will get the same boost when she clinches the Democratic nomination. (Probably June 7)
Third, in case you missed it in eighth grade civics class, we don't elect presidents on the basis of a national popular vote. We have an electoral college based on the voting in each individual state. Head to head in those states in which polling has taken place, Clinton leads Trump by 4-1.
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
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05-24-2016, 03:40 PM
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#3
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,626
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mostpost
I explained all this in the Hillary Clinton thread. In case you missed it, here it is again.
Meaningless.
First, it is within the margin of error.
Second, Trump got a boost because he is now the presumptive nominee on the Republican side. Hillary will get the same boost when she clinches the Democratic nomination. (Probably June 7)
Third, in case you missed it in eighth grade civics class, we don't elect presidents on the basis of a national popular vote. We have an electoral college based on the voting in each individual state. Head to head in those states in which polling has taken place, Clinton leads Trump by 4-1.
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You don't get a 10-11 point bump by being the presumptive nominee. And especially not if you're Donald Trump, who couldn't even get the support of his own party around him after becoming the presumptive nominee.
Tell me THAT should result in a 10 point bump and I'll tell you that you have no idea what you're talking about.
A 10 point move in four weeks in May is insane. We're talking about Donald Trump here...the most hated politician in America...
Try again.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-24-2016 at 03:41 PM.
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05-24-2016, 03:43 PM
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#4
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,626
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Earth to mostpost...Trump was behind by over TEN POINTS in an AVERAGE OF POLLS...not just one biased poll...but an AVERAGE of DIFFERENT POLLS.
He has since made up this entire deficit and edged ahead (by a mere .1 or .2 percent, but ahead nonetheless) in the span of 4-6 weeks.
Either Hillary committed murder and nobody told me, or something else politically amazing is going on....
Not even a convention gives a candidate that kind of boost...
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05-24-2016, 03:48 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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i had these numbers about a month ago and not a sole here believed me. not that it really bothers me one way or the other, but i did notice that since these public polls have tilted in favor of Trump the guy with --------- as his username is missing in action on this board.
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05-24-2016, 04:51 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mostpost
I explained all this in the Hillary Clinton thread. In case you missed it, here it is again.
Meaningless.
First, it is within the margin of error.
Second, Trump got a boost because he is now the presumptive nominee on the Republican side. Hillary will get the same boost when she clinches the Democratic nomination. (Probably June 7)
Third, in case you missed it in eighth grade civics class, we don't elect presidents on the basis of a national popular vote. We have an electoral college based on the voting in each individual state. Head to head in those states in which polling has taken place, Clinton leads Trump by 4-1.
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You're sounding like me last Nov/Dec/this Jan. Don't underestimate Trump.
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05-24-2016, 07:15 PM
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#7
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Traded By Cubs
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: 2 miles north of Wrigley Field
Posts: 5,339
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Either Hillary committed murder and nobody told me, or something else politically amazing is going on....
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If she did, the Main Stream Media wouldn't report it.
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05-24-2016, 07:18 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,612
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'
If she did, the Main Stream Media wouldn't report it.
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And George Soros probably funded it. 
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-24-2016, 07:19 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,478
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I think polls shift rapidly, no matter what Mostpost says they could shift back in favor to Clinton before November. But if they do not and the polls start trending every month until November in one direction we all can start to consider them accurate. The time we are in is different from the past, just like 1960 was really different with television's effect. Myself I don't do twitter, Instagram, Facebook, or any of the other things that I have found no use for. But I realize that they are having a big effect this and the last couple times around. What the polls are trending over the summer and into the fall we will all witness together, as well as those shoveling shit against the tide with unending support.
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05-24-2016, 08:20 PM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
And George Soros probably funded it. |
Vin Foster, but at this point, what difference does it make?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-24-2016, 08:35 PM
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#11
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Refugee from Bowie
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,598
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The truth hurts.
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05-24-2016, 09:40 PM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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So long as we all are in agreement that the RCP average of polls is a good measure of voter sentiment, I'm good.
I'll be interested how long that consensus holds. Mostly what I've commented on is the conflict between actual poll results and what some posters have alleged was their own secret measures.
And so far, Massachussetes is still blue.
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05-24-2016, 10:01 PM
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#13
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Canadian since 51
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by _______
So long as we all are in agreement that the RCP average of polls is a good measure of voter sentiment, I'm good.
I'll be interested how long that consensus holds. Mostly what I've commented on is the conflict between actual poll results and what some posters have alleged was their own secret measures.
And so far, Massachussetes is still blue.
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RCP has been a highly accurate guide for both of President Obama's winning campaigns.
Highly!
Now in both, as I recall off the top of my head, he went ahead by a few percentage points nationally and stayed ahead- aside from the odd Rasmussen/ Fox News poll. 
Far more importantly are the polls of the individual key states. Clinton is still ahead in New Hampshire, Florida & Ohio, of course, Mass, N.Y., Pa, Cal, Tied in
Virginia and why is Trump only up by 3 in Georgia? Have the demographics changed there?
Point being, Trump can roll it up in the Deep South, including Texas and perhaps Wisconsin. But, he still has a loooooong way to go to take those Blue/Purple States.
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05-24-2016, 10:58 PM
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#14
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rookies
Far more importantly are the polls of the individual key states. Clinton is still ahead in New Hampshire, Florida & Ohio, of course, Mass, N.Y., Pa, Cal, Tied in Virginia and why is Trump only up by 3 in Georgia? Have the demographics changed there?
Point being, Trump can roll it up in the Deep South, including Texas and perhaps Wisconsin. But, he still has a loooooong way to go to take those Blue/Purple States.
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You are absolutely correct...at this point in time.
A few points. Atlanta has a lot to do with how Georgia will go--it's very blue and has a very large population. With a large state wide turnout the Republicans should prevail.
To be fair some of the state by state contests are very close and within the statistical margin of error...The fact that he's close in Pennsylvania has got to be shocking to many.
Ohio and Florida are a virtual tie, and you can expect both parties to spend a lot of time there, but if Trump starts to pull away in those two states--lookout.
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05-24-2016, 11:28 PM
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#15
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Canadian since 51
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by barn32
You are absolutely correct...at this point in time.
Ohio and Florida are a virtual tie, and you can expect both parties to spend a lot of time there, but if Trump starts to pull away in those two states--lookout.
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At this juncture, I have allocated several 'Toss Ups', so that Clinton is leading 256-197.
This means that Trump has to sweep 4 in doubt: Ohio, FL, Virginia & N.C.
Let us see what happens before Labour Day.
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