Travers

[menifee]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

To some degree, Irap has appeared to improve because his connections wisely opted out of the rest of the Triple Crown after his Derby dud and pointed to lesser prizes in the Midwest. True, he changed leads correctly in the Indiana Derby, but he had those rivals over a barrel and the race was only 8.5f. He ran on the wrong lead throughout the stretch of the Ohio Derby at 9f as he did in the 9f Blue Grass. Irap is just as suspect as 10f as the rest.

Girvin has shown a bit more improvement in my opinion. He had well documented soundness issues leading up to Derby and like Irap opted out of the rest of the classics. Barely a nostril separated those two in the Ohio Derby, but Girvin was given a curious ride by Mike Smith in that race. A confirmed closer at Fair Grounds, Girvin prompted the early pace and then moved inexplicably with nearly a 1/2 mile left to run to the lead while under pressure between horses. He was a sitting duck in the stretch for the well-held and patiently ridden Irap who never actually got the better of Girvin, simply winning the head bob to the line.

A justified rider switch was made next out and Girvin stepped up from the second tier Midwest targets to tackle a loaded field in the Haskell. Back to his closing style under Robby Albarado, he collared everyone in the shadow of the wire. The main knock is that he tagged two confirmed hangers (at a route of ground) in McCraken and Practical Joke.

Really good analysis - thank you for this. I do still think Irap is the play here especially if you can get 7-1 or better.

[Tom]

Roll the dice.
Who's turn is it?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Tom

Roll the dice.
Who's turn is it?

yup

[cj]

There are some horses picking up real, meaningful weight for the Travers.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I wonder if CJ might share how the Jim Dandy came back on his ratings. When I watched that race there was something I liked about the KD winner, but then looking at the clock afterwards, well, it took some of the shine off. I hate 5 horse races. I would bet rating makers have to split those small field races out as often as not.

Here is the chart for the race. To your question, don't really have a problem with small fields unless the pace gets silly, and that is actually less likely when the field is small in my opinion.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

There are some horses picking up real, meaningful weight for the Travers.

I never realized how paltry the weight assignments were for the Haskell. It used to be a handicap, but I presumed it was equal weights all these years. Knocks Girvin down a peg or two with the extra furlong to navigate.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I never realized how paltry the weight assignments were for the Haskell. It used to be a handicap, but I presumed it was equal weights all these years. Knocks Girvin down a peg or two with the extra furlong to navigate.

whats nice is the Timeform figures have that built in, if you choose.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

whats nice is the Timeform figures have that built in, if you choose.

Yep, Girvin's 120 that you see in the charts is a 116 in the PPs if you have the weight setting turned on.

[f2tornado]

Race looks like a total crap shoot. I'm not a big Looking at Lee fan but if the horse is anywhere near the 30-1 ML then I'll take the punchers chance. Reminds me a little of Keen Ice and one of only a few in the race that hit the board at distance. Plan B; when in doubt, bet on Javier Castellano.

[olddaddy]

Originally Posted by cj

There are some horses picking up real, meaningful weight for the Travers.

You got me excited there for a moment. I thought you had access to the horses weight gain.

[n.c]

but will start by keying looking at lee and another horse or 2, plodders who might finish 4th or 3rd.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Great Travers. Really like this race, and it provides a great wagering opportunity.

I've liked this 3YO crop, and while we haven't seen a true star rise, this crop is pretty deep and talented.

Travers Day card is pretty damn special as well. 6G1s and a ton of big hitters in "their division" almost across the board except for the older males.

Interesting race that doesn't look to have much pace, and you'd have to be crazy to think Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing would look to set any kind of fractions after the Jim Dandy. And from there, you have NOBODY that wants to be on or even near the lead. Maybe Irap?

Kind of makes the newbie to the scene Fayeq a little (and I mean a little) interesting. At least he has a win at the venue, and as a former $800K purchase, is he ready to show some game? Training well, and that 30/1 ML may well rise for a colt getting better as the distances increase.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Tom

Roll the dice.
Who's turn is it?

agree w/this; so it may be Lookin at Lees turn

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Are the pp's out yet?

Great Card!!!!

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Kind of makes the newbie to the scene Fayeq a little (and I mean a little) interesting. At least he has a win at the venue, and as a former $800K purchase, is he ready to show some game? Training well, and that 30/1 ML may well rise for a colt getting better as the distances increase.

Won both his races on the wrong lead under a hard drive. The only time he saw a sharp 6f fraction he crumpled like a cheap suit.

He's a bad gate horse, but by drawing the outside post he'll probably load last so he has that going for him, which is nice.