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Old 02-16-2021, 08:07 AM   #16
Poindexter
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I agree that some horse that a lot people are going to single is probably not going to add value. I was thinking more along the lines of singling a couple of 7/2 shots I would gladly make large win bets on because I hate the favorite.

You know your budget and your ability to handle losing streaks. IMO, if you can’t build a ticket that makes sense mathematically that you can handle financially and emotionally you should go into another pool.

Do yourself one favor and stop comparing PICK X payoffs to parlays. In a parlay you are putting massively more money through the windows. That’s why it pays less. The “take” on the PICK X is the “take” and it’s usually higher than WPS. That difference is how much extra people are losing overall on these exotics relative to WPS (on non carryover days). Other than the carryover, the only advantage of exotics is the leverage you can get from combining 2 value oriented opinions inside one pool into greater value.


If I can get 7/2 shots win like say a 3/2 shot or even like a 2-1 I can print money betting. I don't need a pick 6. I am of the belief that is pretty much a fantasy in the days of whales and big rebates. My guess is most profitable bettors (sans rebates) are hitting 7/2 shots to the tune of maybe 25%. To hit both of them, in one card I would hit 1 of 16 times. then I have to hit the other 4 races I am now down to about a 5% hit rate on a pick 6. That means a much higher bankroll need and a much higher risk of financial ruin.
Moreover will I have these value horses on the carryover day and how will I know in advance of the race that they actually will offer value. Just because I love a I horse and think the public will give me 7/2 on him in the last race, doesn't mean he will not be bet down to 2-1. So much for that value single.

I have come to the conclusion that most heavily bet horses pretty much win as expected by the public. The fact that I choose to single them means they look very good to me and even though they are sans "value", the value I lose on them is overcome by the huge carryover, the huge amount of uninformed money in the pools and the way I play out the other 4 races. In the other 4 races I have no problem using 4-1 A's or 10-1 b's and 30-1 c's. These are the horses that if the right ones connect in the right sequence that bring home the large payoffs if I play correctly.

If you don't want to play pick sixes, don't play them. I love them. I dont like letting $17,000 ones slip away, but that is the game I play. If you don't play pick sixes, what I posted likely is not going to resonate with you anyhow. For those who do play pick sixes, they can do what they want. I just realized what I am personally doing wrong and thought I would share. I have played 100's of pick sixes over the years, probably a couple of 1000 pick 5's and pick 4's in harness racing in just the last 4 years or so I am not new to this. FWIW, I have made a lot of posts on this board, to my recollection don't think I have ever made a I've seen the light type post. In this case I really feel good about all this. I really feel like I went down a very wrong road, and I think I just found my way back home. Time will tell of course.
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Old 02-16-2021, 10:25 AM   #17
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It sounds like you have your heart set on betting Pick 6s because you love them and think a carryover is enough to make you profitable. So you are more interested in cashing the bet to avoid missed opportunities than structuring the tickets a little better to add more value. That's fine. Good luck.

I don't play Pick 6s because to me playing them correctly mathematically involves a large bankroll, long losing streaks, and in all probability no greater value than I can get crushing a single race in the win, exacta, triple, and super pools when I have two strong value oriented opinions inside the same race, crushing the double when I have a single value oriented opinion in consecutive races, or crushing the pick 3 when I have single value oriented opinion in the 1st and 3rd leg of the that sequence.

For me the right way to play is to look at my bankroll, psychological makeup, and opinions and try to match them to the pool that maximizes my chance to generate value and profits all while keeping my head about me.

I don't start with a pool (simply because it exists or I want to make a score) and try to hit that bet. For me personally, it almost never makes sense to bet a Pick 6. It would probably have to be a carryover day where I hate the favorite in the 1st and 5th/6th leg and could leave those favorites out and cover a lot of each race.
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Old 02-16-2021, 11:01 AM   #18
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The issue isn’t whether it’s mathematically correct to think about the value of the individual “combinations”. The issue is whether you can sustain all the losing financially and emotionally if you use too tight of a value oriented approach trying to maximize ROI. That could mean a lot of years of losing, a straight jacket, and a visit to the poor house before you are rewarded, if ever.

There is a flip side though.

Show me a Pick 6 player that isn’t thinking about value at all and I’ll show a losing player. I might even be able to show you a few that could be winning in doubles, picks 3s, and pick 4s with value oriented thinking instead of chasing dreams and losing in the Pick 6.



I completely agree. My point is that one horse does not determine value in a P-6.



I also said that I believe that betting DDs, P-3s, and many P-4s should be driven by the value of individual horses.
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Old 02-16-2021, 02:56 PM   #19
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I completely agree. My point is that one horse does not determine value in a P-6.
Absolutely agree. We've already discussed this ad nauseam.

My minor addition is that personally, if I have a value oriented opinion in one race that's part of a horizontal sequence (let's say I hate the favorite in one race), I'm not even thinking about horizontals. I'm thinking about crushing the verticals in that race.

For me to get involved in horizontals I need two opinions in the sequence. My favorite option is having a value opinion in consecutive races (I'll bet the value horses to win and try to crush the double with a very tight ticket or cold double). The other would be an opinion the 1st and 3rd leg of the pick 3 where I'll do the same thing except cover a lot more in the middle leg because I'm not bringing anything to the table that's adding value in that leg.
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Old 02-16-2021, 05:51 PM   #20
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There's something to be said for carryovers but it seems to me the more races you tie into a sequence the more likely the natural underlays (which inevitably will win most of the other races) can drain the value out of the overlay.

Think of it like this, you love two horses on the card, you make them both precisely even money. One is 3-2 the other is 1/5, if you bet both equally and you're right about the even money piece of this then your bottom line is doomed longterm because you've given back your edge on the 1/5 shot.

Another thing we might want to keep in mind is even with zero takeout (on average) half the field will have odds estimates that are lower than their actual chances (underlays) to various degrees. When we look at 15-25 percent takeouts then it likely gets knocked down to maybe 1-2 true overlays per 8 horse field. I don't know how many of these we can identify and then string together in a sequence to boot, if you're extremely well-rounded I suppose it's possible, in theory.
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Old 02-16-2021, 06:02 PM   #21
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It sounds like you have your heart set on betting Pick 6s because you love them and think a carryover is enough to make you profitable. So you are more interested in cashing the bet to avoid missed opportunities than structuring the tickets a little better to add more value. That's fine. Good luck.

I don't play Pick 6s because to me playing them correctly mathematically involves a large bankroll, long losing streaks, and in all probability no greater value than I can get crushing a single race in the win, exacta, triple, and super pools when I have two strong value oriented opinions inside the same race, crushing the double when I have a single value oriented opinion in consecutive races, or crushing the pick 3 when I have single value oriented opinion in the 1st and 3rd leg of the that sequence.

For me the right way to play is to look at my bankroll, psychological makeup, and opinions and try to match them to the pool that maximizes my chance to generate value and profits all while keeping my head about me.

I don't start with a pool (simply because it exists or I want to make a score) and try to hit that bet. For me personally, it almost never makes sense to bet a Pick 6. It would probably have to be a carryover day where I hate the favorite in the 1st and 5th/6th leg and could leave those favorites out and cover a lot of each race.
You can look at it that way. I don't think that is exactly correct. I think you are looking at value from the lens of the two singles, whereas I have concluded that I would rather sacrifice the value on the two singles and look for the two best singles (assuming 2 good singles exist) let the carryover offset the lack of value and focus on playing the other 4 races well and long term extracting the value there. Are there going to be situations where I single a 4-1 shot over an 8/5 shot? In the right situation I might. But I realize that long term despite my personal beliefs the 8/5 will win more often than the 4-1 shot even if I hate the 8/5 shot and love the 4-1 shot. For instance there was a horse that won on Saturday named Omni, who was the most textbook lone speed you will ever see. His figures were not very good (according to Bris) so the best I could come up with was using him as a B choice, but if he had better figures I would not have hesitated to single him. So I am not averse to singling a non chalk (if you have seen some of my harness pick 5's that I posted you would know that). I just don't predicate whether I am going to play a carryover pick 6 on whether I think there is value in my singles. But in general I am a very value cognizant handicapper.
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Old 02-16-2021, 06:38 PM   #22
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Absolutely agree. We've already discussed this ad nauseam.

My minor addition is that personally, if I have a value oriented opinion in one race that's part of a horizontal sequence (let's say I hate the favorite in one race), I'm not even thinking about horizontals. I'm thinking about crushing the verticals in that race.

For me to get involved in horizontals I need two opinions in the sequence. My favorite option is having a value opinion in consecutive races (I'll bet the value horses to win and try to crush the double with a very tight ticket or cold double). The other would be an opinion the 1st and 3rd leg of the pick 3 where I'll do the same thing except cover a lot more in the middle leg because I'm not bringing anything to the table that's adding value in that leg.
In most cases when I hate the favorite in the race, I find that I lack the conviction needed in order to "crush the verticals" in that race. I can eliminate the favorite...but the rest of the field still remains a mystery to me, vertically speaking. In such cases, I will venture into the horizontals so I can reap some potential benefit due to my exclusion of the "bad favorite". I used to totally shun the horizontals for many years...but I now find that it behooves me to use all the betting weapons in my arsenal. Limiting our wagering options makes as much sense as dribbling a basketball with only one hand...IMO.
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Old 02-16-2021, 07:19 PM   #23
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I come up with some funny ideas as a broke player

If I've got a solid double or Pick-3 with three consecutive races, sometimes I'll just single a chalk in the first leg, and then single the chalk in the last leg (absent a great pick, I want the post time fav hedged).

1 x (3 x 3 x 3) x 1 = $13.50
(3x3x3) = hoping to hit a couple doubles and a pick 3 here

If the chalk happens to win the first race, and my pick-3 was well based... then I'm not only ahead for the day, but I'm sitting on a ticket to where if the favorite wins the final leg I collect another couple hundred, or have the option of hedging.

same Idea, if I happen to have two good Daily Doubles plays in a pick-6 that starts with a chalk and is split with a chalk

1 x (x 3) x 1 x (3 x 3) x 1 = $16.20

hope I hit a couple doubles, maybe tempted into another double or Pick-3 if my selections are pricey enough...

Not going to hit many this way, but balance my bankroll with an occasional lucky position to hedge or sit on my hands for a bonus
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Old 02-16-2021, 07:37 PM   #24
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In most cases when I hate the favorite in the race, I find that I lack the conviction needed in order to "crush the verticals" in that race. I can eliminate the favorite...but the rest of the field still remains a mystery to me, vertically speaking. In such cases, I will venture into the horizontals so I can reap some potential benefit due to my exclusion of the "bad favorite". I used to totally shun the horizontals for many years...but I now find that it behooves me to use all the betting weapons in my arsenal. Limiting our wagering options makes as much sense as dribbling a basketball with only one hand...IMO.
The only problem with that is what do you say to yourself when the overbet favorite wins one of the other races in the sequence. It must not have been bad for us because it won or it wasn't the bad favorite we were thinking of in the sequence so in our mind it somehow doesn't weigh against our 'edge' in the other leg. Again I'm looking at this from the 10000 foot level. I certainly see how someone profits by betting on nothing but overlays to win. I'm not sure when we get into pick 6s, pick 9s or pick 12s that this overlay still carries forward blissfully. At what point does the value found in the one leg start to erode and eventually fall apart. I'd hesitate to say never is the right answer here.
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Old 02-17-2021, 09:30 AM   #25
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In most cases when I hate the favorite in the race, I find that I lack the conviction needed in order to "crush the verticals" in that race. I can eliminate the favorite...but the rest of the field still remains a mystery to me, vertically speaking. In such cases, I will venture into the horizontals so I can reap some potential benefit due to my exclusion of the "bad favorite". I used to totally shun the horizontals for many years...but I now find that it behooves me to use all the betting weapons in my arsenal. Limiting our wagering options makes as much sense as dribbling a basketball with only one hand...IMO.
I share your decision making pain.

I dribble with both hands, but I don't go into horizontals unless I have two opinions in the sequence. I don't when all the value is contained in one leg and I'm not bringing anything to the table in the rest.

If I think I can crush a race and have opinions in other races in the sequence, I can do both.

My typical bet involves some negative on one or more short priced horses and/or some positive on one or more of the others. In a very confusing race where I hate the favorite, the more confused I am the more likely I am to go into supers where I can spread against the horse I hate. The more clear I am the more likely I am to bet Win and a cold Exacta or Exacta Box.

My personal favorite situation is when I hate the favorite and like 2 horses similarly in terms of value. I'll bet both to win, a big exacta box, and then may use some horses against the favorite under just those 2 in trifectas/supers if I think it adds value.
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Old 02-17-2021, 09:32 AM   #26
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You can look at it that way. I don't think that is exactly correct. I think you are looking at value from the lens of the two singles, whereas I have concluded that I would rather sacrifice the value on the two singles and look for the two best singles (assuming 2 good singles exist) let the carryover offset the lack of value and focus on playing the other 4 races well and long term extracting the value there.
I understand you.
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