What's Your Derby Play?

[lansdale]

- Forte
- Mandarin Hero
- Mage
- Tapit
- Verifying

As always, tried to avoid the favorite, but although far from dominance, he looks to have a clear 1.5 lengths over the next two, who seem close, and 3 lengths over the last two. MH seems seriously overlaid and Tapit somewhat underlaid at current odds of 27-1 and 5-1, respectively. If you think the race will be quicker than a pace figure of 1:10.8 would imply, (which I doubt) MH a viable win candidate, coming off the pace.

DS - Japanese horse: ?

Best of luck to all.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by lansdale

- Forte
- Mandarin Hero
- Mage
- Tapit
- Verifying

As always, tried to avoid the favorite, but although far from dominance, he looks to have a clear 1.5 lengths over the next two, who seem close, and 3 lengths over the last two. MH seems seriously overlaid and Tapit somewhat underlaid at current odds of 27-1 and 5-1, respectively. If you think the race will be quicker than a pace figure of 1:10.8 would imply, (which I doubt) MH a viable win candidate, coming off the pace.

DS - Japanese horse: ?

Best of luck to all.

Spot on. This is exactly every horse where I'm landing on and I so badly want to kick Forte.

Tossing in Derma as well, and try to bottom fill 3 and 4 holes with Reincarnate and Hit Show.

[lamboguy]

i was originally going to go with TWO PHILS, mainly because i like Rivelli, and the horse has the right name for me, and he hasn't done to much wrong!

but he drew inside of too many good horses in this race. he still has to change surfaces.

so now i am going with my original derby selection before he ever saw an afternoon racetrack over a year ago. he is tough to play mainly because he only has broken his maiden and it took him 2 races to do that and his last race in the Lexington left plenty to be desired. if you can throw out the last race and give him credit for training better than any of the other 19 horses in this race, you have a big price to shoot at. also, it looks like he has the perfect post position to get the job done.

it is going to be DISARM for me tonight

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i was originally going to go with TWO PHILS, mainly because i like Rivelli, and the horse has the right name for me, and he hasn't done to much wrong!

but he drew inside of too many good horses in this race. he still has to change surfaces.

so now i am going with my original derby selection before he ever saw an afternoon racetrack over a year ago. he is tough to play mainly because he only has broken his maiden and it took him 2 races to do that and his last race in the Lexington left plenty to be desired. if you can throw out the last race and give him credit for training better than any of the other 19 horses in this race, you have a big price to shoot at. also, it looks like he has the perfect post position to get the job done.

it is going to be DISARM for me tonight

2 Phil’s named after your posting habits?

[LemonSoupKid]

Angel of Empires
Dermo Sotogake
Tapit Trice
Mandarin Hero

I could rotate all of these to an extent, but you've gotta pick an order. So I'll stick with Angel of Empire, especially after Flavien didn't get it done on the chalk in the Oaks.

Good luck and let's get some horizontal wagering success today!

[Geno_Gino]

Originally Posted by Geno_Gino

... Now that the PPs are out on DRF, I have formed an opinion and will bet accordingly:

$2 exacta box 2, 8, 9, 10

$2 trifecta box 2, 8, 9, 10

$10 win #9 Skinner

$82 investment. ...

Hmmmm ... given it's the Derby, I'll still have to bet:

$2 exacta box 2, 8, 14, 18

$2 trifecta box 2, 8, 14, 18

$10 win #18 Rocket Can

$82 investment

Good luck to everyone rooting and/or wagering!

[Aerocraft67]

I really need to put this down and focus on the other races today. Every time I nail it down, another scratch mixes it up a little. With Forte out, here's the revised play:

Win


Exactas (20):
, , :22: / , , , , , :22:
Extras with , especially on top

Trifectas (66):
, , / , , , , , :22: / , , , , , :22:
:22: / , , / , ,

Superfectas (36)
, , / , , :22: / , , / , ,
, , / , , / , , :22: / , ,

It's a spread, but they don't include the top two choices—maybe three if Two Phil's edges Derma Sotogake for third choice. Just 3.3% more win money on than at the moment.

A win dutch of + is slightly better odds than straight ; dutching all three would be 3-1. Not out of the question to preserve the moral victory of picking the winner should a chalk bust the exotics.

[gov135]

Tri Key. w 22 w same
Tri Key 17 w 22 w same

ATB on 17, 4, 22

Good luck to all.

[Tom]

Derby picks

Angel of Empire
Two Phils
22 Manerine Hero
Iapit Tric

[Tom]

Derby picks

Angel of Empire
Two Phils
22 Manerine Hero
Iapit Trice

[GaryG]

DERMA SOTOGAKE
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
HIT SHOW
TAPIT TRICE

Tri box and Ex box

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

practical move
forte

exacta box.

Allan

both scratched.

now Kingsbarn across the board.

Allan

[zico20]

With Forte out I redid my entire bet. I keyed the first second and third with the 22 and I bet Mage to win and an exacta box with Mandarin Hero and Mage. I placed my bet so now I am done with looking at it.

[michiken]

All Tri's today - I bet them last night and know the scratched:


with with


with with


with with


with with


key over


with with all


with with all


with with


with with

[Aerocraft67]

Kept noodling with the Derby tickets and didn't leave enough time for other races. Rather than repost the revised tickets, I'll just report that I added 22 on top, so 4/6 exacta, 4/6/6 trifecta, and changed the super to a box of top 4 plus another / 22/ 22.

Oh, hell:

:22:/:22:
:22:/:22:/:22:
+++:22:
/ :22:/ 22/ :22: