This is the rare year I'm getting kind of tired looking over the field and I will put any more capping to work on the Oaks card and Derby day undercard. There's so many that seem to have a legitimate chance this year. I just need to take my top two or three and wheel them, hoping I did a good jo separating the contenders from pretenders.
Forte 
was washed up in the Florida Derby and didn't seem to hit a stride until late yet still won the renewal. He got a lower Beyer in that affair but Beyer always seems to underrate the FL Derby. He got a 6 on the Rags which wasn't too shabby compared to all the other big prep results. He checks most of the boxes for a Derby chalk and I think he's sitting on a big effort.
Tapit Trice 
The horse keeps winning while looking somewhat green at times. If he finally puts it all together then will be tough to outgrind in the stretch. Saez is red hot. Enough said.
Kingsbarns 
Yes, he's lightly raced and gets a rider switch but I think this one has the most upside of the Pletcher trio. Perhaps he's another Vino Rosso that doesn't do his best racing until the 4 year old campaign but I have to consider for the price.
Verifying 
could be a lone E type depending on what transpires out of the gate. He probably needs a perfect trip and can potentially get it from his post. TGaff is riding very well lately and the horse is likely to get a competent ride.
Derma Sotogake 
Perhaps the best hope for a Dubai/Japan horse yet. The post is a minor ding, the rider has limited experience, and Dubai shippers have yet to find success. I still think he could be tough to pass should he get some prime real estate out of the box like Authentic did a few years back.
Skinner 
This one has some good breeding, solid TG figure, and might just have the right pace ahead of him to be in the picture late. Elite CA circuit rider but doesn't have the trips over the track like others. Same trainer had Giacomo with similar style and prep results but also had HOF Mike Smith up. Probably not the same price either.
Angel of Empire 
Checks enough boxes to be a chalk in some years. Should get a favorable pace but he will have to pass much better horses than he faced at OP or FG. Dosage may or may not be a relic of the past but I don't at all like the 9.00.
Hit Show 
See Skinner but with a pilot that has been around the circuit a few times.
Practical Move 
Nice post, good running style. Questions on the distance pedigree and pilot experience. Also not sold on the class he beat out west.
Disarm 
Could be an exotics bomber on a silver platter. Checks all the breeding boxes, the J/T nothing to sneeze at, and figures are improving. Just very hard to put on top of any ticket.
Mage 
Gate issues yet still running nicely. Needs a perfect break this time or is probably an also ran with this crew. Lightly raced as well. Sometimes you gotta take a stand and potentially toss a horse.
Two Phil's 
This one and the Derma are the two oddballs this year I don't know what to do with. I'll take my chances on Japan before this guy but he might end up on a backup ticket somewhere. Yes, Sony won last year and I enjoy cheering for the little man but Jareth is not one I'd double fist at the derby window.
The bets?
A very unoriginal exacta box
A 3x5x8 trifecta = $36 (Pletchers on top)
A 7 horse tri box of my top choices but I remain on the fence on a couple. = $105
After evaluating the undercard and Oaks day, I will likely focus more on the horizonal plays. P3,P4, Oaks/Turf/Derby P3, etc. I think this will be easier to focus on and hit than figuring out who of my top 10 will fill the Derby gimmicks. I tentatively like Wet Paint, Botanical, and Gambling Girl in the Oaks. Mater Piece and Spooky Channel might spice up the Turf Classic.
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Oaks/Turf/Derby P3
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