Derby Pace?

[classhandicapper]

I think there's a reasonable chance Jace's Road is used as a rabbit to help Angel of Empire. When I say rabbit I don't think he'll go out in crazy fractions, but he'll be sent enough to ensure that AOE is not compromised by the pace in the event no one else is being aggressive. Verifying will be off the pace a few lengths and Hit Show a little further back in the middle.

It would not totally shock me of Pletcher sent Kingbarns to ensure the same thing for Forte and Tapit Trice also.

The combination of the big field and a couple horses that will probably be sent to ensure at least an honest pace should lead to pace that's either honest or fast, but I really don't see enough pure speeds to project a meltdown. Someone would have to be acting a little crazy to get a meltdown since most of these horses have shown they can rate a bit.

[depalma113]

Derma Sotogake was no match going against Commissioner King and Havnameltdown in Saudi Arabia. He then runs the best race of his career next out. Seems like a bounce candidate if there ever was one and most likely never sees the lead.

[Roaring Good Time]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think there's a reasonable chance Jace's Road is used as a rabbit to help Angel of Empire. When I say rabbit I don't think he'll go out in crazy fractions, but he'll be sent enough to ensure that AOE is not compromised by the pace in the event no one else is being aggressive. Verifying will be off the pace a few lengths and Hit Show a little further back in the middle.

It would not totally shock me of Pletcher sent Kingbarns to ensure the same thing for Forte and Tapit Trice also.

The combination of the big field and a couple horses that will probably be sent to ensure at least an honest pace should lead to pace that's either honest or fast, but I really don't see enough pure speeds to project a meltdown. Someone would have to be acting a little crazy to get a meltdown since most of these horses have shown they can rate a bit.

These horses all have different owners. How would you like to see your horse sacrificed so Mike Repole can jump around the Derby Winner's Circle? Anyway, I'm not sure Kingsbarns doesn't have a better chance than Forte in this race.

As far as Jace's Road is concerned, he has to send simply because it's the only way he has even the slightest chance. Even so, he's likely just too slow to really push the pace.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Roaring Good Time

These horses all have different owners. How would you like to see your horse sacrificed so Mike Repole can jump around the Derby Winner's Circle? Anyway, I'm not sure Kingsbarns doesn't have a better chance than Forte in this race.

As far as Jace's Road is concerned, he has to send simply because it's the only way he has even the slightest chance. Even so, he's likely just too slow to really push the pace.

Like I said, they won't be sacrificed in the traditional sense of a rabbit setting extreme fractions, but I think both are probably going to be sent to ensure the pace is honest at a minimum.

I'm not a big fan of Kingbarns in this race. He obviously has some talent long term, but he hasn't shown he can handle the sustained demands of a high quality field yet. Also, his last Beyer figure was adjusted up due to the slow pace. The race was actually slower than it looks by a few points on Beyer figures. So he was slower than he looks and had that very soft trip. To take him you are betting that he both has the class/reserves to handle a much tougher trip and also run much faster than he has to date. It happens with lightly raced improving horses, but I don't think it will happen in the Derby.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Derma Sotogake was no match going against Commissioner King and Havnameltdown in Saudi Arabia. He then runs the best race of his career next out. Seems like a bounce candidate if there ever was one and most likely never sees the lead.

He doesn't need the lead.

I think the first race in Saudi Arabia was more of a prep and possibly even too short for him.

That said, even though I'm going to be using him as one of my main horses, I do think he's more of an all or nothing horse than some of the others for the same reason. He took a huge step forward in that last race. IMO, it's no lock he's going to stay up at that level and duplicate it. So even though I'm using him, I may have a few tickets with him out completely.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Is Brisnet actually correct with the running style designations?

I disagree on the following:

Two Phil's P to E/P
Tapit Trice P to P/S
Kingsbarns E/P to P
Skinner S to P/S
Angel of Empire S to P/S
Raise Cain P to E/P
Rocket Can E/P to P
Lord Miles P to P/S

[ranchwest]

My early (North American raced) horses:

Verifying
Practical Move
Two Phil's
Confidence Game
Jace's Road

[lansdale]

Only paying attention to racing during Derby and Breeder's Cup these days, but remembered something that might be of interest, especially to former or present Sartin people while talking to one of them.

Looks like most of the focus here is on running style, rather than the actual pace of the race. I've found an old Sartin technique, the Meridian Variant, which was written up by the late, great Dick Schmidt, to be surprisingly useful in the Derby. For those who remember, it adjusts all pacelines to a standard of a hypothetical 55 fps race. Especially since CD was reconfigured, and the KD is more speed-favoring, it's done well in picking winners.

Although not its purpose, its also proven pretty accurate it predicting the pace of the race, based on the adjusted fractions of the leader, or leading, contenders.
So, FWIW, projected times for the latter calls of tomorrow's race, in tenths rather than DRF fifths.

46:8/1:11.20/1:36.40/2:02.7.

As I think makes sense in a field without speedballs, the first split is slow, but the others are average for the past half-dozen years or so. Also, caveat that this assumes good weather and a fast track and doesn't account for the presence of the Japanese horse DS -- who looks capable of wiring this field, if in form. As many have said in this thread, since there is no real speed, the race looks to be won on or very close to the lead.

If Ted C. happens to read this, possibly he could post the Follow Up containing Dick's article on the MV.

[Longshot]

I think that the fact that Reincarnate was bet today from 50/1 to 15/1 just might tell us something. No other horse took a hit like this.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Longshot

I think that the fact that Reincarnate was bet today from 50/1 to 15/1 just might tell us something. No other horse took a hit like this.

That was a terrible morning line. Nobody was buying that.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Longshot

I think that the fact that Reincarnate was bet today from 50/1 to 15/1 just might tell us something. No other horse took a hit like this.

Reincarnate was simply a horrific ML. I would have set him at 20/1 or at most 30/1. That was a simple price adjustment that will be re-corrected to 20/1 or more.

The horse taking $ is Two Phil's. This year's "Wise Guy" horse.

[PhantomOnTour]

The performance of Hit Show shouldn't be forgotten or lost in the shuffle of all the post race chatter.
He was pretty close to a fast pace that only he and Phil survived - he bid into that pace while wide around the far turn and battled on nicely thru the lane before yielding & finishing 5th.

he ran a nice race

[Longshot]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The performance of Hit Show shouldn't be forgotten or lost in the shuffle of all the post race chatter.
He was pretty close to a fast pace that only he and Phil survived - he bid into that pace while wide around the far turn and battled on nicely thru the lane before yielding & finishing 5th.

he ran a nice race

Might be a horse to watch out far in the Preakness

[Fightingirish51195]

I was thinking belmont for hit show

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The performance of Hit Show shouldn't be forgotten or lost in the shuffle of all the post race chatter.
He was pretty close to a fast pace that only he and Phil survived - he bid into that pace while wide around the far turn and battled on nicely thru the lane before yielding & finishing 5th.

he ran a nice race

I tossed him completely and was surprised...tried very hard and it was a nice effort.