Derby Pace?

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Japan has several tactical choices.
They have arguably a win contender in Derma Sotogake.
Continuar is not a contender. What should Japan do?

...

main point here is that 'by hook or by crook' these (sport of) kings want to get their boy home first, and if they have an uncoupled entry they will consider teamwork.
If a teamwork situation is attractive and where there is a disparity of talent or there is a lone significant Win contender of the bunch, a sacrifice is at times considered.

Do we have any evidence that the two Japanese entrants will coordinate? Assuming they will is beginning to sound like a contrarian indicator. Isn't it just as likely that there's an intense rivalry between them to prevail here?

Probably reasonable to assume that the connections are acquainted and know each other's tendencies better than other entrants know theirs. Maybe they even share some "us vs. them" scouting observations. But that's not the same as coordinating their strategies to the point of sacrificing one for the other.

Sure, keiretsu is a thing, but it's not like they're in cahoots just because they're both from Japan in a foreign race. I wouldn't assume that two American entrants in a race abroad would "couple" just because they have common foreign citizenship.

That said, I know squat about the Japanese racing scene. Maybe the connections of Derma Sotogake and Continuar are tight and collaborative. Just would like to see more evidence of that before betting on it. Even if they're buddies, doesn't mean they'll harmonize tactics.

I think the key to Jason's presumption is that Continuar absolutely can not factor for a placing. That's not quite evidence of likely collaboration, but does make it more logical.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Is Brisnet actually correct with the running style designations?

I think it depends how you look at them. It’s not meant to be predictive. It’s supposed to be descriptive of a horses preferred run style. I like it as a quick thing to look at when I first look at a race but then I’ll make my own judgements.

Sometimes you’ll catch an E that doesn’t really need the lead to win

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I think it depends how you look at them. It’s not meant to be predictive. It’s supposed to be descriptive of a horses preferred run style. I like it as a quick thing to look at when I first look at a race but then I’ll make my own judgements.

Sometimes you’ll catch an E that doesn’t really need the lead to win

This is a good description. Plus the Brisnet writers said exactly what you said, in more words:

"Most importantly, always make sure to check all high speed points horses to see if they are need-the-lead types. Look at their past performances to see what happens when they don’t get the lead. If they never win without the lead, and they don’t figure to get the lead in today’s race, they can probably be thrown out with confidence."

I think Brisnet does a good job overall, but keep in mind some of these 3 yo horses have few runs in them to get a solid handle on style. This also muddies the Quirin Speed Points should a horse simply have some bad racing luck in a couple events. A look at the trainer, jockey, and breeding might provide additional insight on how it will run in the Derby or elsewhere.

A good example of nailing it was the E7 assigned to Medina Spirit in 2021 in spite of the horse not having the lead in any call in previous two races. There was no doubt he was still an E and the 7 Quirin Speed Points suggested he had a ton of it. The only equivalent horse this year is Verifying.

A possible example where it's wrong. Forte is listed as a P3. The 3 suggests the horse doesn't have much early speed. He gets "penalized" for racing in larger fields (and with strong pace figures; 46 and 47 half mile calls) than most of the others, otherwise one could argue he looks more like an EP5.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

This is a good description. Plus the Brisnet writers said exactly what you said, in more words:

"Most importantly, always make sure to check all high speed points horses to see if they are need-the-lead types. Look at their past performances to see what happens when they don’t get the lead. If they never win without the lead, and they don’t figure to get the lead in today’s race, they can probably be thrown out with confidence."

I think Brisnet does a good job overall, but keep in mind some of these 3 yo horses have few runs in them to get a solid handle on style. This also muddies the Quirin Speed Points should a horse simply have some bad racing luck in a couple events. A look at the trainer, jockey, and breeding might provide additional insight on how it will run in the Derby or elsewhere.

A good example of nailing it was the E7 assigned to Medina Spirit in 2021 in spite of the horse not having the lead in any call in previous two races. There was no doubt he was still an E and the 7 Quirin Speed Points suggested he had a ton of it. The only equivalent horse this year is Verifying.

A possible example where it's wrong. Forte is listed as a P3. The 3 suggests the horse doesn't have much early speed. He gets "penalized" for racing in larger fields (and with strong pace figures; 46 and 47 half mile calls) than most of the others, otherwise one could argue he looks more like an EP5.

Agree. I think you look at a horse like Practical Move with a P7. Horse has broke terribly in his last 3 races (a serious problem that has to be considered in 'capping his chances). He isn't running 4th or 5th at 1st call on purpose. Guarantee the connections want him to break much more sharply and be on or near the lead into the 1st turn.

Mage is another that I fully believe his preferred running style is to be on or near the lead. Being lightly raced, he has but 3 starts and broke poorly in 2 of them.

I think intent and connections also have a huge say. You look at horses like Confidence Game, Hit Show, and Verifying. Those are smart trainers and connections that have to know they aren't beating Tapit or Forte if they are side by side at the top of the stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Do we have any evidence that the two Japanese entrants will coordinate? Assuming they will is beginning to sound like a contrarian indicator. Isn't it just as likely that there's an intense rivalry between them to prevail here?

Probably reasonable to assume that the connections are acquainted and know each other's tendencies better than other entrants know theirs. Maybe they even share some "us vs. them" scouting observations. But that's not the same as coordinating their strategies to the point of sacrificing one for the other.

Sure, keiretsu is a thing, but it's not like they're in cahoots just because they're both from Japan in a foreign race. I wouldn't assume that two American entrants in a race abroad would "couple" just because they have common foreign citizenship.

That said, I know squat about the Japanese racing scene. Maybe the connections of Derma Sotogake and Continuar are tight and collaborative. Just would like to see more evidence of that before betting on it. Even if they're buddies, doesn't mean they'll harmonize tactics.

I think the key to Jason's presumption is that Continuar absolutely can not factor for a placing. That's not quite evidence of likely collaboration, but does make it more logical.

yes it's contrarian

No, -and I want to be more clear - this is 100% NOT meant to be ''Japan thing' or a 'foreign thing' or whatever. Hey..., that 'Keiretsu' concept is something interesting and I hadn't heard/read it before, and I actually like/respect it. However, that isn't what I meant to imply, and I can also see how that post(s) could come across that way (xenophobia etc...). Not the intention at all.



Back to US racing for a moment - uncoupled entries...

There will be highly respected analysts and they don't tend to stress these things. They seem to imply that they are completely independent, but will acknowledge some obvious stuff in their selection/handicapping process.

There are also fans and players who say that teamwork doesn't exist, or simply don't seem to get it.
But, you are a horseplayer and you watch races and think independently of the authorities and the herd, and you notice a regularity of mostly simple things like 'ensuring an honest pace', and occasionally some things that look like 'waiting on rivals' if the millionaire-owned horse happens to strike the front before the billionaire-owned blue-chip prospect.

This isn't the best example in the world, but it's a simple example, and also my broken memory/brain has it somewhere in the shards on recall,
G1 Manhattan
- big race.
So you have a very nice horse in Domestic Spending who is a relatively heavy favored.
2nd choice is a horse called Colonel Liam (no relationship to liam neeson so don't be taken by this mediocre example) Think he came in with 4 straight wins. He likes to be forward, and would prefer a moderate pace. As luck would have it, he also ended up being drawn wide.
3rd choice is Gufo, a nice horse but not a threat to a domestic spending in a fair closing battle.
distant 4th choice is likeable Channel Cat, not a top win contender or someone you enter a rabbit for, but while he's in the field with Liam Neeson 2 birds 1 stone...

Subtle thing. 10 furlong G1 and Domestic Spending needs to win, so we want to make sure the pace isn't slow enough to create a forward flow (whether we knew Colonel Neeson was entering/pointing or not).


long shot Tribhuvan is an early runner, gets entered uncoupled to Domestic Spending, Denies Colonel Liam a lead or a rail trip, Denies Channel Cat the lead, attempts to ensure some pace.

he almost wins the dang thing but Domestic Spending runs him down.

YouTube

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

this is 100% NOT meant to be ''Japan thing' or a 'foreign thing' or whatever. ...that isn't what I meant to imply, and I can also see how that post(s) could come across that way (xenophobia etc...). Not the intention at all.

Right on—didn't mean to stick you with xenophobia. I also don't want to be naive about collaboration between uncoupled entries. But I was beginning to wonder whether the notion of the Japanese entrants collaborating might get overbet.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I bet mage in the Florida derby and was super impressed. I guess I’m just worried about the distance. Did he get caught because he has limitations distance wise or because he had to make such a big move to get in that position?

He is one of the handful of horses that I wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

I don’t know if I would put any of the e/Ps in my top 5 most likely to win

Ran some numbers. Watched the race a handful of times. I’m staying loyal to mage. He’s definitely my top 5. Love that post especially with some speeds to his inside and derma in the 17. Thanks for talking some sense into me check

[Robert Fischer]

some troll of ITP (pylons) may have done something to my twitter account.

he was arguing with me about something, and we both had a couple of replies (no ban worthy type of material whatsoever), then suddenly I'm typing the 2nd half of a 2-part response and my twitter is asking for a log-in, and not logging me in after I sign in my stuff.

annoying.

I wanted to do some talking videos about the derby and oaks that get like 50 total views and 2 interactions or whatever those metric things are.

[Geno_Gino]

Twitter is down for [most] everyone right now.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Geno_Gino

Twitter is down for [most] everyone right now.

Thanks

guy was pretty intense and randomly mentioned that I don't know his AI search stuff like one second before the log out.

good to know it sounds like an unlrelated thing

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Thanks

guy was pretty intense and randomly mentioned that I don't know his AI search stuff like one second before the log out.

good to know it sounds like an unlrelated thing

Twitter is working fine for me. Whats your username

[f2tornado]

TimeformUS suggesting a hot early pace with the 17-4-2-7 in the lead group.

[Michael]

Fairly sure posting the pace projector is ok. If not I apologize in advance.

[CheckMark]

Here is a smaller version
(Thanks Michael for posting it and sorry again if this is not allowed)

Screen Shot 2023-05-01 at 7.49.51 PM.jpg

[Aerocraft67]

I may have copied it down wrong initially, but I think TFUS revised Rocket Can's early pace rating upward to 109 from 101, which makes him a little more interesting—but for that wide post.

They have Tapit Trice at the back of the pack, only ahead of the three deep closers. He's passed eight horses before. But 16? TFUS has six others with same or better late pace—and three of those with better early pace.

I know we've discussed how Saez will almost certainly seek more forward position than 17th, and that previous running wasn't necessarily a closing style preference. But if the projection is at all accurate, he'll have to improve something considerably. He's got the upside to do that, but 5-1?

Really nice that they drummed up pace projections for the Japanese entrants. Interesting to see Derma Sotogake on the front, with a bit of margin. And Continuar leading mid-pack just five back from him. They'll have to overcome the wide posts, but I presume they both have stamina rivaling any of these.

Practical Move and Two Phil's look pretty far back with a lot to do late. They can improve their standing, but most others have more upside.

Only two entrants have passed more than eight horses, and none more than 10, so anyone in the back half of the field faces way more to do than they ever have. Not that they're all a hard toss, but seems pretty overwhelming for many of those, compared with the eight or so that can get into position to do a more comfortable amount of racing.