Derby Pace?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Curln22

With the pace fiasco from last year, do you think they will send Derma?

Will there be an over compensation?

The best horses seem to be closers. But if a moderate pace?

GL

I think the Japanese contingent has learned valuable lessons over the years, including last years complete meltdown.

They got tired of the American horses simply running them off their feet with the likes of Lani and Master Fencer. While they were nice horses, they were plodders that simply got lost in the shuffle and had to make up way to much ground for horses that weren't serious deep closers.

Last year they 'took it to' the American horses and paid a dear price.

I see Derma as being near the front end in a stalking fashion. If it is a dawdling pace (which it rarely if ever is in the Derby) then he may take the lead, but I fully expect him to be in the front 2/5ths of the field heading into the 1st turn.

[f2tornado]

I've watched many Derby renewals and while the horses generally still run to their style, horses not your pure speed types often have subtle to more obvious tactical changes in this race. Competitive closers are often closer to the front. I wouldn't be surprised if Saez put's Tapit closer to the front this time or see Kingsbarns lay back in third or fourth. Forte probably sits in the front row of the second flight... I try to ignore post positions but those do have some influence on how the race shakes out ahead of the first turn. An early speed type in an outside gate that needs a dream trip is probably going to attempt rally to the front.

[Aerocraft67]

Didn't last year's field have more innate contenders for the lead? Is Derma Sotagake more suited to frontrunning than Crown Pride? If so, last year be damned, off he goes.

I'm not saying he guns for the lead at all costs. But someone's gotta lead, why not him?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Didn't last year's field have more innate contenders for the lead? Is Derma Sotagake more suited to frontrunning than Crown Pride? If so, last year be damned, off he goes.

I'm not saying he guns for the lead at all costs. But someone's gotta lead, why not him?

There really isn't a true front-runner in the field.

You look at the running lines and it is almost void of any 1s or 2s at the first 2 calls. The E1 and E2 figs are as light as I can ever recall for a Derby.

Post position is always vital in a 20 horse field. Say Tapit Trice draws the or hole? Changes the whole complexion of what he has to do to get into position and not shuffled back to nowhereville.

With that said, I think there are a few horses that I feel have to send to have any chance: Rocket Can, Hit Show, Confidence Game, Verifying, and Reincarnate. 3 of those 5 are going to break well IMO, and one of them will be leading at 1st call.

[Curln22]

With Mott adding blinkers with Rocket Cans work, I wonder if he possibly sends?
Since the point system It seems the 1/2 mile time of 46.2 is the difference between front runners and closers.

GL

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by Curln22

With Mott adding blinkers with Rocket Cans work, I wonder if he possibly sends?
Since the point system It seems the 1/2 mile time of 46.2 is the difference between front runners and closers.

GL

I absolutely think that is his plan. Mike Welsh has been hinting at that as well, as he's been reporting from Churchill.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I absolutely think that is his plan. Mike Welsh has been hinting at that as well, as he's been reporting from Churchill.

Mott is one of the best trainers on the planet. He has won with every kind of horse including the deep closing Country House (albeit via DQ).

You don't need to be building rockets in your backyard to see that Rocket Can has been beat by a number of others in this field. He can't be in a position to battle the likes of Forte and other stalkers/closers and expect to out-finish them.

He needs a repeat of his FOY race and hopefully get some improved stamina built up in the Ark Derby. He is 2(1-1-0) at Churchill, so he does like the track. Really interesting horse that is a tough kick in any exotic wager.

[Aerocraft67]

At first I kind of liked Reincarnate, then I didn't. Considering now that he might get the front without too much fight in a return to fore, and he's not devoid of late pace, maybe he's interesting again. He won the (speed-favoring) Sham nearly wire-to-wire. Just hard to get to him on raw speed, class, and distance. Which is why he factors 30-1.

But Rocket Can? Main difference vs. Reincarnate is that one looks substantially stronger for the early going. Among those that would make sense to send, the only one weaker early than Rocket Can is Jace's Road (who may also be weakest late, and would seem to have little chance).

Rocket Can also seems among the worst prospects for the distance. Not that I'm talking anyone off a 50-1. I may need to reshuffle longshots, but I can't afford this guy sneaking into consideration!

Maybe someone like Jace's Road comes out like a rabbit, and the tracking tier follows in their comfort zone. If the rabbit wears down early, do they pick up steam and finish, or do they have too far to go to hold back the midpack mob?

[Longshot]

Here's a list of TimeFormUS Early Paces Figures over 100.

Confidence Game-118
Reincarnate-112
Verifying-112
Mage-107
Kingsbarns-105
Rocket Can-101

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Larry putting in work..

Twitter

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Curln22

With the pace fiasco from last year, do you think they will send Derma?

Japan will attempt to send Continuar.
Pletcher will send Kingsbarns.
Cox will send Jace's Road unless Cox either thinks the pace will be really soft for Verifying or thinks that a adding to the pace would hurt Verifying.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Is Brisnet actually correct with the running style designations?

They're straight up terrible (and I personally choose to use Brisnet pps - you have to respect and understand their product has serious flaws) For instance, you cant put trust in their marathon turf figures. Certain tracks also have inflated figures... no clue why. Same with the running styles... you're much better off just re-doing them... the down side is it takes more time to look at the race.

Some people break them into 3 types, Bris does 4, I personally like to use 5.

[CheckMark]

Pace Chart for the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Screen Shot 2023-04-30 at 9.42.33 AM.png

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Japan will attempt to send Continuar.
Pletcher will send Kingsbarns.
Cox will send Jace's Road unless Cox either thinks the pace will be really soft for Verifying or thinks that a adding to the pace would hurt Verifying.

Continuar isn't sending. Not sure that horse can run a sub :24 1st quarter even if whipped 10 times.

Kingsbarns isn't fast either. He was gifted the lead in the LA Derby and capitalized. Pletcher isn't going to waste him in a :45 or :46 and change duel.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Continuar isn't sending. Not sure that horse can run a sub :24 1st quarter even if whipped 10 times.

Continuar isn't some slug or a plodder.

There are some sluggish horses every year, and some of them are one-run deep closers.

Rich Strike's ability and running style and gameplan certainly wasn't oriented toward dueling the pace players.

On the other hand, a lot of the Kentucky Derby field is not only not a plodder, and not commited to a certain late-closing style, but also is pretty darn talented and capable of displaying some near-sprint speed for a while if really asked.

You can clearly see in Continuar's last race that he is not a sloth. It's not even close to where you'd have to wonder about it, or to extrapolate. He clearly displays an early speed relatively close to as fast as anyone in the UAE Derby.

clip (2nd twit down) from UAE Derby break->1stTurn;

Twitter

Hopping at the start cost him a bit, but the rider was urgent (please use volume on and you can hear my scratchy tired voice obnoxiously repeating the word 'sent') and Continuar actually showed a little bit of quickness. Rushed up slightly and didn't really settle until wide on the first turn.



Disagreement is fine.

Japan has several tactical choices.
They have arguably a win contender in Derma Sotogake.
Continuar is not a contender. What should Japan do?

1. just race. Best effort. Whatever happens, happens... Let it be!
2. Derma Sotogake to the lead! because they believe the pace will be moderate and he was so strong in the UAE Derby. Go for it!
3. Assign Continuar used to mitigate rival Verifying. Derma Sotogake is best Japan Best! We sent Crown Pride last year to influence the pace, and it got hotter than a chukanabe wok. Of US rivals only Verifying can beat us on the pace. Continuar can do some dirty work and soften up Verifying, while Derma Sotogake gets an efficient trip in the 2nd Group (maybe near rival Practical Move who may be trying to get another efficient forward trip)

.

Sorry about the long post.
I don't want to drag on and go into Kingsbarns..

main point here is that 'by hook or by crook' these (sport of) kings want to get their boy home first, and if they have an uncoupled entry they will consider teamwork.
If a teamwork situation is attractive and where there is a disparity of talent or there is a lone significant Win contender of the bunch, a sacrifice is at times considered.

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 04-30-2023 at 08:36 PM.