Pacelines...which ones, how many?

[Tom]

The Sartin Methodology thread started a few good discussiond on paceline theory that lost in the People v Sartin defamation trial so I thought this deserved a new thread.

Classhandicapper and Ranchwest talked about a composite speed figure, where the last three or four speed figs are weighted. Curious what, if any considerations are given the lines. Last 3-4 period? Last 3-4 same distance, surface, class?

Take the 4th at Aqueduct today. 6F TURF SPRINT NW1 STATE BRED

Three Unions -her two turf sprints are decidedly better than her two dirt races. Do you use just the turf lines or all four? If yiu use all four, are you concerned that the highest weighted line is a dirt stakes, neither of which are what she face today?

Any thoughts?

[Dave S]

Without knowing the pars, the horses two turf race's speed figures appear to be a little low. It's maiden win looks like it did not receive much of a challenge from the other horses- would like to know how many horses it defeated in that race.

[Tom]

In the maiden win, she was 11-1 and beat 11 horses.

[Dave S]

Originally Posted by Tom

In the maiden win, she was 11-1 and beat 11 horses.

That looks pretty good, however I think that I would still bet against such a horse if it were offered at low odds based on its below par final figures.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Tom

The Sartin Methodology thread started a few good discussiond on paceline theory that lost in the People v Sartin defamation trial so I thought this deserved a new thread.

Classhandicapper and Ranchwest talked about a composite speed figure, where the last three or four speed figs are weighted. Curious what, if any considerations are given the lines. Last 3-4 period? Last 3-4 same distance, surface, class?

Take the 4th at Aqueduct today. 6F TURF SPRINT NW1 STATE BRED

Three Unions -her two turf sprints are decidedly better than her two dirt races. Do you use just the turf lines or all four? If yiu use all four, are you concerned that the highest weighted line is a dirt stakes, neither of which are what she face today?

Any thoughts?

I would treat the two dirt races as glorified workouts and base my opinion off of the one 6 furlong race on the outer. - One single line for me. Likely project some kind of speed buffer to reflect the age of 2 to 3. and understand it was likely on a speed biased outer.

The rails were down (0 feet) on the outer...

Andy's Journal:
Friday, October 28
Fast / Firm
Clear
57
Wind 10 to 8 MPH SW
The rail was good, though not an edge, on the Main Track, which played fairly. The Inner Turf played
fairly. The rail might be an advantage on the Outer Turf, though it's hard to be sure. Worth following.


The toga line - the rails were at 27 feet the whole week. Winners from the day prior were pressers and pace.

I'm willing to bet brisnet adds both the 5.5F and the 6F together to get an average. Personally, not a fan of using more than 1 running line to reflect past performance... all I want to know is what the horse is capable of.
If I dont like how the one line I pick... I'll look at the other.

Does it make sense to add together two races with 2 different rail settings? Not to me. I remember that Toga day... it was when Diamond hands ran back off a previous biased track. There was some kind of issue and there was a convo in the fractional time error thread. I had diamond hands to win and boxed the exacta with the winner Bahamian Club. That race made my meet. (even though I lost that win bet)

That said... I'll go back a full year if I have to... I don't live by any hard rules if there's a line of logic I'll stick to it. I've probably gone 8 back... possibly 9 deep to reflect an opinion.

I need an actual reason for averaging two line... I've done it before.. rare.
I like the Sartin stuff... that said, it has a cult following that I'm not a part of.

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by Michael

I would treat the two dirt races as glorified workouts and base my opinion off of the one 6 furlong race on the outer. - One single line for me. Likely project some kind of speed buffer to reflect the age of 2 to 3. and understand it was likely on a speed biased outer.

The rails were down (0 feet) on the outer...

Andy's Journal:
Friday, October 28
Fast / Firm
Clear
57
Wind 10 to 8 MPH SW
The rail was good, though not an edge, on the Main Track, which played fairly. The Inner Turf played
fairly. The rail might be an advantage on the Outer Turf, though it's hard to be sure. Worth following.


The toga line - the rails were at 27 feet the whole week. Winners from the day prior were pressers and pace.

I'm willing to bet brisnet adds both the 5.5F and the 6F together to get an average. Personally, not a fan of using more than 1 running line to reflect past performance... all I want to know is what the horse is capable of.
If I dont like how the one line I pick... I'll look at the other.

Does it make sense to add together two races with 2 different rail settings? Not to me. I remember that Toga day... it was when Diamond hands ran back off a previous biased track. There was some kind of issue and there was a convo in the fractional time error thread. I had diamond hands to win and boxed the exacta with the winner Bahamian Club. That race made my meet. (even though I lost that win bet)

That said... I'll go back a full year if I have to... I don't live by any hard rules if there's a line of logic I'll stick to it. I've probably gone 8 back... possibly 9 deep to reflect an opinion.

I need an actual reason for averaging two line... I've done it before.. rare.
I like the Sartin stuff... that said, it has a cult following that I'm not a part of.

Well you do not have to be part of the cult to appreciate the work of a departed member of here and Pace n Cap. He would pick lines from hard and fast rules that you can still read. Binder and I picked lines together and when he did not like something he would say they are too good for me here. Then he would pass the race, sometimes because of short price and other times because he did not like lines that were constrained form his hard and fast rules. He is still giving and many of his help is still available at Pace n Cap. I liked Binder but not Ted so I don't get into the cult either. I in no way am giving a plug but suggesting everything old that is good does not die.

[omar2]

Browsing at the website, I noticed this post, and I felt the need to make a comment here. I’m pretty good at picking pacelines. I mentioned this once before and I understand what you’re saying about averaging pace lines. I feel what you’re trying to do is looking for perfection, and perfection is not going to cut it. You have to understand that you’re going to lose races when you pick the wrong pacelines and you’re going to lose races when you pick the right pace lines. It’s just part of the game.
I also knew Binder and Richie P. from my days at the Meadowlands. I observed what they were doing but I would not interject myself in their conversation. Learning the Sartin methodology has always been a trial and error procedure. I know a lot about you guys on this website to a lot of testing so here is my challenge to you. I want you to handicap 20 races, picking up pacelines your way and then I want you to do the same races picking the pacelines my way, and then come back to me and tell me which way you had better success with.
The way I pick my pacelines is I just use the last usable. Good race that the horse ran period, end of story. I played mostly turf races, and so if the last race is a third race, So, I mean if the horses last two or three races run the dirt, but they were good efforts. I’m not going to go all the way back to where he ran on the turf just to get a breathable line and I’m certainly not going to average three lines going back in the horse’s pp’s. I can give one line to each choice in the race, I do not limit myself to five horses. When I look at the rankings, I may not go past number five but if there’s 8, 9 or 10 horses in the race, every horse has a paceline That goes into the program.
The Sartin program I use is the Equalizer 2.1a. I’m aware of the way KP Mats has the program set up for Automatic pace line selection and for the sake of expediency I’ll pretty much go with it because like today I was playing 4 tracks (only turf races). When it comes time to record my model, if the winners ranking’s don’t make sense to me, then I will delete the race, re pick the pace lines my way and then record the model.
I pretty much know what I’m looking for on the screen before I even see the race. While you guys were looking at Aqueducts 4th I started with Aqu race 1 which by the way I hit and by the way gave it out to 3 guys I know Before the race went off. I’m writing this on my phone, so I will post the screen shots of the race along with the email I sent out at 1:10pm when I get to my computer. By the way the race went off at 1:23pm as per the result chart. So kudos to those who passed this race thinking it was unplayable.
This day was capped by hitting the 10th at Keenland . Nailed the 5 horse plus exacta. FYI, any race on the docket is playable if you know what you’re doing.
And how about that 1st at GP with the #1 going off at 25-1 and just missing, nailed that race too.
Hey hey, Brucie. ( from Midnight Cowboy).
Omar

[omar2]

having trouble with attachments, not saving. keeps opening in new tabs

[46zilzal]

One iteration that I found very helpful on paceline selection(s) (note plural) was a section called Long Shot Detector. This ranked Pace of Race each animal ran against so it was a good indicator of how this same animal would PROJECT to the proposed pace of race TODAY.

It helped differentiate what a presser mover RAN AGAINST so to better chose pace lines.

Also a great finding was FORM cycle. I an animal had run three successive runs with the e/L climbing as well as the % median, you know this one had a good chance of NOT running back to the form of three races back.

Finally an angle we found at the Yahoo Group (Sartin Alums where I was the moderator for 10 years)...TRUE SPEED is the velocity of final time. When you find races where the entire field is within the same WHOLE number True Speed(i.e. 55.4, 55.7, 55.2, 55.8 etc), a review of the DECELERATION (final fraction/2nd call velocity) often gave you a horse that the odds overlooked...Worked very well, and just recently when posted this one a Pace and Cap, a contributor wrote back and used it that very day for a double digit winner.

[lefty359]

Sartin said use the best comparable line of last 3. Some people forgot or didn't understand comparable line and use one of last 3 lines, but many times
you have to go past the actual last 3 lines.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Finally an angle we found at the Yahoo Group (Sartin Alums where I was the moderator for 10 years)...TRUE SPEED is the velocity of final time. When you find races where the entire field is within the same WHOLE number True Speed(i.e. 55.4, 55.7, 55.2, 55.8 etc), a review of the DECELERATION (final fraction/2nd call velocity) often gave you a horse that the odds overlooked...Worked very well, and just recently when posted this one a Pace and Cap, a contributor wrote back and used it that very day for a double digit winner.

you used the best deceleration amongst the tied from tied group of True Speed....Called it the Damon Runyon angle.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tom

The Sartin Methodology thread started a few good discussiond on paceline theory that lost in the People v Sartin defamation trial so I thought this deserved a new thread.

Classhandicapper and Ranchwest talked about a composite speed figure, where the last three or four speed figs are weighted. Curious what, if any considerations are given the lines. Last 3-4 period? Last 3-4 same distance, surface, class?

Take the 4th at Aqueduct today. 6F TURF SPRINT NW1 STATE BRED

Three Unions -her two turf sprints are decidedly better than her two dirt races. Do you use just the turf lines or all four? If yiu use all four, are you concerned that the highest weighted line is a dirt stakes, neither of which are what she face today?

Any thoughts?

To clarify:

The Quick Grid composite speed figure uses 4 non-zero lines. It has absolutely nothing to do with pace line selection, the topic of this thread.

The auto-selected pace line is a single line based solely on the merits of that line and being the basis for factors that are based solely on the one line and determined without any multi-line considerations. Users may view the factors for all BRIS running lines and may select a single pace line, which then replaces the auto-selected line for all calculations based on pace line. Whether auto-selected or user selected, there are no multi-lines considerations for figures based on pace line.

[Suspicious Tendons]

I would have used the second line to get a clue as to what the horse could do, but it is not the most ideal line because it is so far back. Another knock is that line was a maiden win, and it is not the same class level she is facing in today's race. If a horse has not raced in 105 days or more, then I tend to knock his/her chances to be successful in today's race. I usually consider anything that far back as ancient history, and it is not indicative of the horse's current and true form. Treat such a situation as starting over.

That race was a bit of a jumbled mess to handicap. Most of the field was coming off a giant layoff. I give a stronger preference to "class on grass", and the three fillies that faced the best competition in the field were all coming off 105+ day lay-offs, which were the 4,6, and 8. The 4 has the best workout tab, good trainer, and showed excellent early speed last year up until she tired herself on an off-track on the turf in the G3 Matron S. I would scratch that last effort, as I'd never use an off-track to analyze. The 8 ran in the G2 Miss Grillo S. on a yielding course, and came up 4 lengths short. She tried against state-breds on dirt, and it unfortunately backfired. I like the backclass, and her running style is a good fit in this race since there is so much early speed to chase. The 6 has shown the fastest early speed between those two, but hasn't faced as strong of a class like they have - BUT it is better than the rest of what the field has done. Worktab is okay, but not spectacular. I would've honestly boxed all three of them on top, but with stronger preference on the two with the best class, which would be the 8 and the 4. The 8 has an excellent turf pedigree, too.

Sartin Methodology would be handy in this race as a tool to gauge the overall feel of this field, but not as reliable on predicting the probable winner because of the extended layoffs, ages of some of the fillies (growth from 2 to 3 year old form), and the different surfaces.

[cj]

I give every race a "score" with how relevant it is to today's race when making figures and think it can be applied to handicapping. The more information, the better, so I'd rarely go with one race. But the relevance score might be so low as to exclude races. I've detailed how I do it here before so not going to type it out again.

Score factors:

Distance
Surface
Days since race
Recency of Race in PPs (last race, 2 back, etc.)
Class (how close is it to today)

One thing I rarely ever see mentioned is adjusting for a horse maturing. If you are using a line from 3 months ago on a 3yo in January, are you building in that it should be faster now? I know that I do.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

One thing I rarely ever see mentioned is adjusting for a horse maturing. If you are using a line from 3 months ago on a 3yo in January, are you building in that it should be faster now? I know that I do.

I think in those terms also, but when I studied it a bit it didn't seem to gain me much of an advantage in terms of predicting winners.

Maybe that was because:

1. Those 2yos and 3yos I looked at were running against other 2yos and 3yos that were also improving.

2. If the race was long enough ago so that significant development was possible (5-6 months?) some of them did jump up but others were coming off layoffs or weren't the same horse anymore.

I really should do more work on the subject because we know for certain that on average those young horses get better.