Elimination Factors

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Are their any proven elimination factors that can be used for locating key horses for exotics?

The trick is to implement these factors without sacrificing the value potential as the more elimination factors used tends to place a handicapper on a favorite or near favorite. Since these keys would be used for P3 P4 P5 purposes you cant check the odds on these key horses since they may be in the second, third fourth or fifth race in the sequence.

Thanks in advance for any replies

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

My buddy replied that his automatic elimination rule is to avoid Maidens that have finished second twice in their careers calling them 'sucker horses'that he will let beat him.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

My buddy replied that his automatic elimination rule is to avoid Maidens that have finished second twice in their careers calling them 'sucker horses'that he will let beat him.

I say, find a new handicapping buddy. A Maiden who finishes second twice can only be called a "sucker horse" after those two races are properly assessed. A second-place finish isn't always the "gutless" performance that the misinformed players consider it to be.

[Speed Figure]

That doesn’t make any sense to me! eliminate a maiden that’s finished 2nd twice? I don’t get it!

[Bennie]

I eliminate any maidens that have raced several times and shown little or no improvement in favor of others with fewer tries but finishing 2nd twice is way to soon to eliminate especially if the horse ran against visibly better horses or had any type of trouble in one or both of his races.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Are their any proven elimination factors that can be used for locating key horses for exotics?

The trick is to implement these factors without sacrificing the value potential as the more elimination factors used tends to place a handicapper on a favorite or near favorite. Since these keys would be used for P3 P4 P5 purposes you cant check the odds on these key horses since they may be in the second, third fourth or fifth race in the sequence.

Thanks in advance for any replies

With verticals, I've found that the best horses to use "underneath" are horses that have reasonably competitive speed figures and good late pace figures. I'll use some longshots underneath if their speed figures don't seem good enough to win, but their best figures are good enough to hit the board. And, if they have good late pace figures, that makes them more likely to hit the board.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

That doesn’t make any sense to me! eliminate a maiden that’s finished 2nd twice? I don’t get it!

I myself would keep a horse like that in but it’s up to you though.

[FakeNameChanged]

Things I have actually read in "experts" books to eliminate a horse:

-Eliminate horses breaking from the outside in a sprint if there are two or more early types inside of him.
-Eliminate horses breaking from rail, if there are early speed horses immediately to his right.
-Eliminate any horse that hasn't raced in 21 days, 28 days, 30 days, a year, you pick the number of days.
-Eliminate any horse 8 years or older, if there's any horses 4 or 5 in the same race.
-Eliminate any horse that has run 2nd several times in his pp's, but hasn't shown a win recently.(you pick how many)
-Eliminate any horse going up two or more classes.
-Eliminate any horse dropping 40% or more in class.
-Eliminate any horse that has raced head to head all the way through the stretch last race and lost( or won)--Quirin disputes this one.
-Eliminate any horse that finished more than 8 lengths behind winner in last race at same class.(On a UK website, I was surprised to see the writer used 18 lengths for this number in routes)
-Eliminate any horse that lead to stretch in last race or was within 2 lengths and then lost 1 or more lengths in the stretch, providing it wasn't 1st race after l/o.
-Eliminate any horse in a non-maiden that has less than 10% win rate or 20% ITM.
-Eliminate any horse that is sweated up, fractious in the post, 1st time front raps, etc.
-Eliminate any horse that refuses to warm up during post parade(mine). This happened to me at Parx, and it was a foggy, rainy day, so the track didn't show this or share the info until after the race.
-Eliminate first time geldings.
-Eliminate confirmed routers changing to a sprint.
-Eliminate any filly racing against males(exc. Zenyatta, Winning Colors, Ruffian, etc)
-Eliminate 3 y.o's racing against older horses, unless it's later in the year.
-Eliminate a horse with declining speed figures at same class.

Plus a whole bunch of turf elim. factors I no longer remember.
In the early days I used some of these, until I've seen every single one of these broken several times.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Things I have actually read in "experts" books to eliminate a horse:

-Eliminate horses breaking from the outside in a sprint if there are two or more early types inside of him.
-Eliminate horses breaking from rail, if there are early speed horses immediately to his right.
-Eliminate any horse that hasn't raced in 21 days, 28 days, 30 days, a year, you pick the number of days.
-Eliminate any horse 8 years or older, if there's any horses 4 or 5 in the same race.
-Eliminate any horse that has run 2nd several times in his pp's, but hasn't shown a win recently.(you pick how many)
-Eliminate any horse going up two or more classes.
-Eliminate any horse dropping 40% or more in class.
-Eliminate any horse that has raced head to head all the way through the stretch last race and lost( or won)--Quirin disputes this one.
-Eliminate any horse that finished more than 8 lengths behind winner in last race at same class.(On a UK website, I was surprised to see the writer used 18 lengths for this number in routes)
-Eliminate any horse that lead to stretch in last race or was within 2 lengths and then lost 1 or more lengths in the stretch, providing it wasn't 1st race after l/o.
-Eliminate any horse in a non-maiden that has less than 10% win rate or 20% ITM.
-Eliminate any horse that is sweated up, fractious in the post, 1st time front raps, etc.
-Eliminate any horse that refuses to warm up during post parade(mine). This happened to me at Parx, and it was a foggy, rainy day, so the track didn't show this or share the info until after the race.
-Eliminate first time geldings.
-Eliminate confirmed routers changing to a sprint.
-Eliminate any filly racing against males(exc. Zenyatta, Winning Colors, Ruffian, etc)
-Eliminate 3 y.o's racing against older horses, unless it's later in the year.
-Eliminate a horse with declining speed figures at same class.

Plus a whole bunch of turf elim. factors I no longer remember.
In the early days I used some of these, until I've seen every single one of these broken several times.

Interesting factors and yes i have heard most of them. The point i am trying to make is not an elimination factor for all horses in the P3P4 or P5 scheme, i am talking about a cold hard eliminate rule(s) for selecting a 'Key Horse" to be used as a single in these exotic verticals.

As my friend mentioned to me that a maiden that finished second two or more times can be a risky key horse to use as the public tends to over bet these types and as a key there are question marks about the horses ability to win .

Elimination rules for key horses that you want to win a high percentage of times deserve a careful analysis in my opinion.

[Light]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

The point i am trying to make is not an elimination factor for all horses in the P3P4 or P5 scheme, i am talking about a cold hard eliminate rule(s) for selecting a 'Key Horse" to be used as a single in these exotic verticals.

A horse that changes to a trainer or jock that wins less than the previous trainer or jock by at least 10% or more. Win rate is 5%.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by Light

A horse that changes to a trainer or jock that wins less than the previous trainer or jock by at least 10% or more. Win rate is 5%.

Thanks Light that is an elimination rule for a key horse that is clearly a statistical percentage advantage

[mikesal57]

An easy one

Eliminate horses that have a Bris Prime of 5 or more.....
Stats show its under 10% winners.....
The only 2 categories I'd consider a watch in this scenario ... is Trainer & Class

Mike

[Light]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

An easy one

Eliminate horses that have a Bris Prime of 5 or more.....
Stats show its under 10% winners.....

Not according to my stats. Top 4 PP only win 75% of the races, not 90%.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

An easy one

Eliminate horses that have a Bris Prime of 5 or more.....
Stats show its under 10% winners.....
The only 2 categories I'd consider a watch in this scenario ... is Trainer & Class

Mike

I specialize in winners who are listed by Bris Prime at 6 and below.

[Tom]

I'm thinking about selling my list of eliminations.
Lots of good priced winners on that one!